DraftKings Thursday Night Showdown
It’s Thursday night, it’s NFL football night, and it’s time for the DraftKings Showdown slate. This week, we get the Buffalo Bills hosting the Miami Dolphins. The line started with the Bills being a 10.5-point favorite; they are now a 12.5-point favorite.
The expected total points are 48.5; that’s approximately 11 points predicted for the Dolphins and 36 points for the Bills. In week one, the Dolphins scored eight points against the Indianapolis Colts, and last week they scored 27 points against the Patriots. The Bills have 30 points against the New York Jets and 41 points against the Ravens.
The Dolphins’ defense has surrendered 33 points to the Daniel Jones-led Colts and 33 points to the Drake Maye-led Patriots. Meanwhile, the Bills held the Jets to 10 points while slugging it out with Lamar Jackson, giving up 40 points in their win.
Last Week’s Showdown Winner (Single Entry)
The total points to win last week’s showdown slate were 126.28; 20 people shared the pot (alas, not one of them…yet). Here was the winning roster. Remember the game finished Commanders 18-Packers 27.
- Captain: TE, Tucker Kraft, 41.10
- Flex: QB, Jayden Daniels, 19.70
- Flex: QB, Jordan Love, 20.88
- Flex: RB, Josh Jacobs 14.40
- Flex: TE, Zach Ertz 18.40
- Flex: WR, Romeo Doubs, 11.80
Thursday Night Showdown: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Again, how do you think this game will go? There is so much drama surrounding the Dolphins. Can the Dolphins finally beat the Bills? They are 1-9 against the Bills. Will Tyreek Hill get traded, or will Mike McDaniel make it through the season? Actually, thinking about it all can be true or not. But do they actually have any bearing on the game?
Here are some stats that might:
- In their last six games, Hill has only had more than 12 fantasy points twice
- DeVon Achane has played on 84% of the offensive snaps; he has been targeted 14 times, for 112 yards and two touchdowns
- Malik Washington has run a route on 64% of the offensive dropbacks
- Keon Coleman has a 19% target share and 72% route participation
- Khalil Shakir has a 12% target share on a 72% route participation
- Joshua Palmer has a 16% target share on a 66% route participation
- James Cook only has a 54% snap share, but in two weeks, he has 40 touches for 237 yards and three touchdowns
Captain: Josh Allen $18,600: In week one, Allen attempted 46 passes for 394 yards, two passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns. Last week, he attempted 25 passes for 148 yards, zero passing touchdowns, and zero rushing touchdowns.
James Cook $15,900: Tradition says that running backs at home with their team favored is a good bet. Cook is a good bet, but remember, he has only been on the field for 54% of the snap share. If the game gets out of hand, there is a chance Ray Davis gets some serious playing time.
DeVon Achane $16,200: If the Dolphins have a chance of making this game respectable, Achane, with his 84% snap share, must be productive.
Tyreek Hill: $14,700: The squeaky wheel theory in play? Last week, Hill surpassed 100 receiving yards (109) against the Patriots. He was second on the team in targets (7) behind Achane’s 10.
Tua Tagovailoa: $14,100: Except for the fact that the Bills have owned Tagovailoa in better times (for the Dolphins), all of it is secondary to the fact that the Bills have one of the highest pressure rates in the league, and that did not work out so well for Tagovailoa in week one against the Indianapolis Colts. Now, maybe he has a chance; the Bills will also be without the services of Ed Oliver and Matt Milano.
Jaylen Waddle: $13,200: Waddle is listed as questionable. It’s hard to trust any injury designation, especially on a short week.
Keon Coleman, $10,200/ Khalil Shakir, $9,900: Allen doesn’t appear to have a WR1, and if this game gets out of hand, it is more likely a run game.
- Flex Plays: Bills defense, $5800
- Matt Prater,$5000
- Dalton Kincaid, $5400
- Joshua Palmer, $4800
- Malik Washington, $3200
- Dawson Knox, $2400
Captain
The goal when playing single entry on a showdown slate is to get the correct chalk, and with only six roster spots, the captain really does matter (“Look at me! I’m the captain now!”) is so true in a showdown roster.
For this game, it’s almost automatic that the Dolphins will be playing from behind, I mean, there is no way they win this one right…right?
So, to save money and take the safe bet that the Dolphins will be playing from behind, my choice:
Captain: RB, D. Achane, $16,200
Then, going with an onslaught of Bills players is the chalk. (If you are playing GPP, the contrarian play will be to play a 3:3 lineup according to current player projections.)
But for single entry:
- Flex: QB, J. Allen, $12,400
- Flex: RB, J. Cook, $10,600
- Flex: RB, R. Davis, $2,600
- Flex: Bills Defense, $5,800
- Flex: WR, N. Westbrook-Ikhine, $2,000
How are you playing this showdown slate?
