DraftKings Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Lions
Welcome to December and Week 14 of the NFL. The Thursday night showdown is the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Detroit Lions. Both teams are battling for a playoff spot. The Cowboys are a three-point road dog, and the game has a 54.5 over/under. But before we get into that, let’s look and see how the black friday showdown went (spoiler alert, not well from my end or the Philadelphia Eagles…woof).
The winning total for the Friday showdown with the Chicago Bears traveling to the City of Brotherly Love (aka Philadelphia Eagles) was 133.70.
- Captain: WR, A.Brown, 57.30 🔥$14400, 6.45% drafted
- Flex: QB, J. Hurts, 18.30 $11600, 82.26% drafted
- Flex: WR, D. Moore, 4.70 🥶$8000, 16.11% drafted
- Flex: RB, D. Swift, 23.80 🔥$6600, 27.73% drafted
- Flex: RB, K. Monangai, 22.00 🔥$5600, 27.07% drafted
- Flex: WR, L. Burden, 7.60, $3800, 38.63% drafted
And there you have it. Remember, we are playing a single-entry game.
Cowboys v Lions
This isn’t a “short week” for either team, as both played on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are coming in after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 31-28. The Lions are limping in after losing to the Green Bay Packers 24-31.
The Cowboys will enter the game relatively healthy—the Lions…not so much. The Lions are without tight end Sam LaPorta, and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is a “game time decision”. St. Brown left the game last week with an ankle injury after playing on only 6% of the snaps. The Lions’ secondary is also a concern, as both Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph will miss this game.
Thursday Night Showdown Props (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cowboys +3 (-108), + 140 moneyline
- Lions -3 (-112), -166 moneyline
- O 54.5 (-105) U 54.5 (-115)
- George Pickens 5.5 receptions, OVER (-132): Pickens has six receptions or more in his last five games (6,9,9,6,7).
- Jameson Williams 82.5 receiving yards OVER (-117): The Cowboys are allowing the third most passing yards per game (242.7 in their last three games). As mentioned before, the Lions are down both their WR1 and TE1. Williams (a Dan Campbell favorite) is on the field for 91% snap share. Last week, after St. Brown went out of the game, Williams was targeted 10 times for seven receptions, 144 yards, and a touchdown.
- Jared Goff 249.5 passing yards OVER (-113): Goff’s last three games he had 256 passing yards on 26 attempts; 279 passing yards on 42 attempts, and 255 passing yards on 37 attempts.
- Isaac TeSlaa anytime touchdown (+200): Last week, TeSlaa played on 94% of the offensive snaps. For the season, he has six receptions with three being touchdowns.
- Javonte Williams 68.5 rushing yards UNDER (-112): The Lions are third in EPA/rush and are fifth in yards per carry allowed (3.9). Last week, Williams was on the field for 75.5% of the snaps, carried the ball 17 times, and had 59 rushing yards.
Stats That Matter
Vegas expects this game to be a shoot-out. The money has been coming in for the line to go over. The good news is that we kind of know what both offenses intend to do, which should help when making the showdown lineup.
The bad news is that it seems almost too predictable. Are we overthinking it?
- Per @YahooFantasy, the Cowboys are susceptible to pass attempts to the outside. They are giving up 122 yards per game to the outside, 10.1 yards per pass attempt to the outside, which is last in the NFL.
- @FantasyPtsData, David Montgomery hasn’t seen over 30% of the Lions designed carries since Week 10.
- The Lions’ defense has played single-high at 69% since Week 8. Pickens only trails Puka Nuca on volume versus single-high. He is averaging 3.87 yards per route versus single-high, per @MattHarmon.
- The strength of the Cowboys’ defense is the interior. The weakness of the Lions’ offensive line is the interior.
- Per The Athletic, the Cowboys’ win their chance to make the playoffs is 42%; if the Lions lose, their chance to make the playoffs drops to 12%.
The Lineup
NFL Showdown $10K Huddle [Single Entry]
- Captain: WR, J. Williams, $12600
- Flex: RB, J. Gibbs, $11000
- Flex: WR, T.Kennedy, $2000
- Flex: WR, G. Pickens, $9400
- Flex: QB, D. Prescott, $10400
- Flex: WR, K.Turpin, $2400
Good Luck, and play nice.
