Daily Fantasy

DraftKings Sleepers and Advice: Championship Round

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Throughout the 2016 Fantasy season Gridiron Experts has talked a lot about the ability to maximize finding DFS value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary.

Gridiron 3x Daily FantasyDraftKings Lineup Advice & Sleeper Picks

Throughout the 2016 Fantasy season Gridiron Experts has talked a lot about the ability to maximize finding DFS value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

Divisional Round Recap

Predictions I Got Right

  • I said I wanted nothing to do with Alex Smith (10.78) or Ben Roethlisberger (8.06).
  • Despite making a great call and selling readers on Brock Osweiler in the Wildcard round, I warned people about his matchup against the Pats. Somehow the Texans QB had another game with 40 passing attempts and less than 200 passing yards.
  • I said the best QB bargain of the week would be Dak Prescott = Correct
  • Le’Veon Bell would not reach his 3X goal, I even made a prediction of 25 DraftKings points, he had 21.60
  • WR predictions: “I have a bad feeling about the big names and their 3X goals this weekend” Antonio Brown 3X goal was 28.8 he got 19.8, Julio Jones 3X goal was 24.3 he racked up 18.7 points and Doug Baldwin 3X goal was 24.3 points, he scored 19.10. -Boom big call here
  • Suggested WR adds to hit 3X Goal: Chris Hogan yep, Taylor Gabriel close enough

Predictions I Got Wrong

  • I should have known better, LeGarrette Blount was fighting a cold all week, hardly practiced and Dion Lewis picked up the slack.
  • Christine Michael didn’t even get a touch – ouch. This was the worst call I made since starting this post-season DraftKings article series.
  • Charcandrick West sleeper: nope
  • Suggested WR adds to hit 3X Goal: Tyreek Hill, Jeremy Maclin, R.Cobb
  • Tight Picks Martellus Bennett and  Austin Hooper were let downs

 

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Quarterbacks

TeamQuarterbacksSalary3X GoalAVG
Aaron Rodgers810024.326.0
Matt Ryan770023.123.7
Tom Brady710021.322.5
Ben Roethlisberger580017.418.9

With four stud quarterbacks to choose from it’s difficult to find a QB to dislike this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if all four hit their 3X goal. Ben Roethlisberger has the best chance to outperform based on his price, but historically speaking, the Patriots defensive strategy has always strived to eliminate the best player from the game. So the question is; will the Pat’s try to shut down Antonio Brown or Le’Veon Bell?

My Pick: I like Matt Ryan this week. I think the hype on Aaron Rodgers, the cheap cost of Big Ben and the pretty boy looks of Tom Brady will result in Ryan being the least owned QB for the Championship round. As long as Julio Jones is good to go, Ryan is my guy for this Sunday

Running Backs

TeamRunning BacksSalary3X GoalAVG
Le’Veon Bell1030030.928.0
Devonta Freeman720021.618.4
Ty Montgomery560016.810.6
Dion Lewis530015.910.0
Tevin Coleman480014.415.1
LeGarrette Blount440013.214.6
Christine Michael33009.98.6
James White32009.610.0
DeAngelo Williams300098.6
James Develin300090.3
Brandon Bolden300090.3
Fitzgerald Toussaint300090.7
[the_ad id=”66786″]If you’ve been reading my DraftKings 3X playoff series, you know I missed on Le’Veon Bell in the Wildcard round, but nailed my pick in the Divisional round. In both previous predictions I said Bell wasn’t worth adding to your lineup, but this week I’m singing a different tune. The Pat’s held Lamar Miller in check last week, keeping him to less than 4 yards per carry, but where the Texans missed out, I feel the Steelers will capitalize. Houston involved three running backs in their passing game for a combined 73 yards, which made up a significant portion of Osweiler’s 197 total passing yards. If New England sticks to shutting down the pass, there should be a lot of opportunities for Bell to thrive underneath in the passing game. Le’Veon Bell’s snap count against the Chiefs had him on the field for all but one play (64 of 65 snaps), which could mean a serious boost for Bell to rack up reception points and come very close to hitting his 3x Goal of 30.9 points.

My Le’Veon Bell prediction: 133 rushing yards, 1 TD, six receptions for 50 yards =33.3 DraftKings points thanks to the rushing bonus.

Other Players, I like to hit their 3X goal: Dion Lewis and Tevin Coleman

Wide Receivers

TeamWide ReceiverSalary3X GoalAVG
Antonio Brown880026.421.9
Julio Jones820024.618.7
Jordy Nelson760022.819.0
Julian Edelman730021.915.5
Davante Adams660019.816.8
Randall Cobb590017.713.5
Taylor Gabriel490014.710.8
Mohamed Sanu450013.59.7
Chris Hogan390011.79.3
Geronimo Allison380011.44.5
Malcolm Mitchell370011.16.9
Eli Rogers340010.29.3
Michael Floyd33009.97.5
Danny Amendola31009.35.5
Matthew Slater300090.0
D. Heyward-Bey300093.3
Cobi Hamilton300094.3
Sammie Coates300095.1
Demarcus Ayers300095.5
Eric Weems300090.0
Aldrick Robinson300094.0
Nick Williams300095.5
Justin Hardy300094.1
Trevor Davis300090.9
Jeff Janis300092.0

Julian Edelman FantasyAs it seems, there are more nagging injuries to take into account than usual this week. Being the NFL Championship round, my guess is everyone will play, except maybe Jordy Nelson. This could cause problems for Fantasy owners as coaches may gamble with a player at a higher injury risk. If it were week 7, teams would likely avoid the risk of seriously injuring their player’s long term, but in a do or die game, I think coaches will let the players decide.

I love Julian Edelman this week; he is owned in a lot of my DraftKings lineups. I feel very confident he hits his 3X goal of 21.9 points.

Randall Cobb seems to be one of the only Packers not missing practice; he’ll be heavily owned this Sunday. I’m curious about Geronimo Allison’s injury news, he’s been fun to watch and is excellent at finding space in coverage, possible sleeper.

Lower your expectations for Antonio Brown this week. Interesting stat tweeted by @ChrisWesseling: Malcolm Butler doesn’t shadow top WRs except for Antonio Brown. Held him to 57.4 rating in Week 7.

Tight Ends

TeamTight EndsSalary3X GoalAVG
Jared Cook510015.39.2
Ladarius Green360010.89.6
Martellus Bennett33009.910.5
Jesse James27008.15.9
David Johnson25007.50.9
Matt Lengel25007.51.5
Xavier Grimble25007.52.3
Levine Toilolo25007.53.3
D.J. Tialavea25007.53.6
Richard Rodgers25007.54.4
Joshua Perkins25007.51.5
Austin Hooper25007.54.4

Jared Cook’s ego must be on cloud nine. With the injury concerns to the Packers team, he seems like a safe buy. I also like Jesse James as the other check down target for Big Ben against the Patriots.

Good Luck this week!

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