11 Min Read

DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice: NFL Wildcard Weekend

January 4, 2017

11 Min Read

DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice

All season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

As we are not publishing fantasy projections for the NFL playoffs with fantasy football season being over, I thought this week as a helpful guide I would talk about the potential of some of this weekends players chances of reaching that 3X goal in Draftkings. I’ve gone ahead and done the math for you to make life easier.

Quarterbacks

DraftKings Quarterbacks
Team	Name	Salary	3X Goal	Avg	Game
	Aaron Rodgers	7900	23.7	25.564	[email protected]
	Ben Roethlisberger	7600	22.8	19.94	[email protected]
	Russell Wilson	7000	21	18.254	[email protected]
	Eli Manning	6100	18.3	16.011	[email protected]
	Matthew Stafford	5700	17.1	18.986	[email protected]
	Brock Osweiler	5100	15.3	12.399	[email protected]
	Matt Moore	5100	15.3	9.623	[email protected]
	Connor Cook	5000	15	2.667	[email protected]

The salary and overall budgeting of daily fantasy costs can make it hard for the average DFS player to figure out true value. Aaron Rodgers 3X goal of gaining 23.7 DraftKings points seems very obtainable. Yet, spending that much on your QB will make life difficult to build a lineup that doesn’t involve a high-risk player in your flex spot. There are just four games this weekend, and with a high probability that Rodgers is the top owned quarterback I think I would rather build my team with a cheaper gunslinger and have money to spend on better options at wide receiver and in the Flex spot.

Eli Manning’s price point makes him the middle ground QB this week, but considering how the Giants offense can be so hot and cold from week to week, he’s also a difficult start in my opinion.

As much as Twitter has been making a laughing stock out of the Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler battle this Saturday, I’m tempted to take the contrarian approach and pick one of them as my QB. With reasonable 3X goals of just 15 points (15.3 for Brock) I feel I could get lucky and make it work. You may think I’m crazy, but 280 yards and a touchdown is all it’ll take for each of these two QB’s to reach their 3X goal, and you’ll save $2,800 in the process to spend on other positions.

No matter who you decide to go with this week, I think it’s fair to assume that stacking your QB with the teams top WR is a smart strategy. Yet to go one step further, I would also say you should throw in the stacking of the Tight End as well. Outside of Jimmy Graham, this playoff round doesn’t feature too many big name Tight Ends. If I were to pick a guy like Brock Osweiler, I think I would add not just Nuk but C.J. Fiedorowicz for safe measures.

DraftKings Running Backs
Team	Name	Salary	3X Goal	Avg	Game
	Le’Veon Bell	10300	30.9	28.033	[email protected]
	Jay Ajayi	6800	20.4	15.22	[email protected]
	Lamar Miller	6100	18.3	14.579	[email protected]
	Thomas Rawls	5700	17.1	8.722	[email protected]
	DeAngelo Williams	5600	16.8	10.31	[email protected]
	Ty Montgomery	5500	16.5	9.633	[email protected]
	Latavius Murray	5000	15	15.371	[email protected]
	C.J. Prosise	4600	13.8	10.167	[email protected]
	Zach Zenner	4500	13.5	6.714	[email protected]
	Alex Collins	4500	13.5	3.355	[email protected]
	Alfred Blue	4300	12.9	4.5	[email protected]
	Rashad Jennings	4200	12.6	10.646	[email protected]
	Aaron Ripkowski	4100	12.3	2.913	[email protected]
	Paul Perkins	4100	12.3	5.7	[email protected]
	Fitzgerald Toussaint	4000	12	0.756	[email protected]
	Damien Williams	3600	10.8	6.293	[email protected]
	Jalen Richard	3400	10.2	7.219	[email protected]
	Dwayne Washington	3400	10.2	4.058	[email protected]
	Christine Michael	3400	10.2	9.4	[email protected]
	DeAndre Washington	3300	9.9	5.747	[email protected]
	Akeem Hunt	3300	9.9	2.1	[email protected]
	Taiwan Jones	3000	9	0.577	[email protected]
	Jonathan Grimes	3000	9	3.29	[email protected]
	Jay Prosch	3000	9	0.167	[email protected]
	Jamize Olawale	3000	9	3.588	[email protected]
	Tyler Ervin	3000	9	0.258	[email protected]
	Marcel Reece	3000	9	3.55	[email protected]
	Joique Bell	3000	9	0.2	[email protected]

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell’s 3X goal is 30.9 points, which seems high to me even with the 100-yard rushing bonus (3-points). Adding Bell to your lineup will eat up over 20% of your Draftkings lineup salary. Bell was rested last week against the Browns, which is great news for Steelers fans but Big Ben and Antonio Brown do plan to take some shots against this Dolphins defense that has been struggling as of late. If you add Bell to your lineup, you’re going to need at least two scores from him this weekend to reach his 3X goal.

That being said, there aren’t too many other reliable RB choices to choose from this week. Dolphins Jay Ajayi, Seahawks Thomas Rawls and Texans Lamar Miller are all a little banged up heading into Wildcard Weekend. Ajayi has the most upside as a pure game changer with his breakaway speed, but if the Dolphins are trailing early will they continue to run the ball? Ajayi had only one target last week, and zero the week before. With just 24 receptions on the season, there is a strong possibility that Ajayi (32 Targets, 24 REC, 131 Yards, 0 Td’s) could be used heavy in the first half but lose touches to a player like Damion Williams (27 Targets, 20 REC, 226 Yards, 3 TD) in the second half due to the scoreboard. Damien Williams 3X goal is just 10.8 points, meaning a couple catches and a score could get him there.

The tale of the tape for Sunday's Wild Card matchup with Miami. 👇 pic.twitter.com/9xv4LUMhxg

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 3, 2017

Thomas Rawls has the perfect matchup, but I feel we’ve been in this situation before. The Seahawks are happy the second year RB is active, but I think deep down they’re concerned about how much they can rely on him. Rawls has had a tough season dealing with nagging injuries, but if there was ever a time to get hot, now would be that time.

Zach Zenner’s DraftKings salary has adjusted immensely in just one week (40% increase from week 17). The football world has clearly taken notice of this kids bruising running style and been impressed with his soft hands. I love watching Zenner run with the ball, but feel his 3X goal of 13.5 points might be tough to achieve against a very stout Seahawks run Defense. With limited sleeper choices, he did find his way on to a handful of Multiplier lineups for me.

DraftKings Wide Receivers
Team	Name	Salary	3X Goal	Avg	Game
	Antonio Brown	9400	28.2	21.287	[email protected]
	Odell Beckham Jr.	9100	27.3	19.35	[email protected]
	Jordy Nelson	8000	24	20.044	[email protected]
	Doug Baldwin	7000	21	16.413	[email protected]
	DeAndre Hopkins	6700	20.1	12.713	[email protected]
	Golden Tate	6300	18.9	14.569	[email protected]
	Davante Adams	5600	16.8	16.231	[email protected]
	Michael Crabtree	5300	15.9	15.519	[email protected]
	Amari Cooper	5200	15.6	15.269	[email protected]
	Jarvis Landry	5100	15.3	15.331	[email protected]
	Sterling Shepard	4800	14.4	11.713	[email protected]
	Will Fuller V	4400	13.2	9.586	[email protected]
	DeVante Parker	4200	12.6	10.693	[email protected]
	Marvin Jones Jr.	4100	12.3	11.887	[email protected]
	Anquan Boldin	4000	12	10.838	[email protected]
	Jermaine Kearse	4000	12	6.131	[email protected]
	Eli Rogers	4000	12	9.923	[email protected]
	Randall Cobb	4000	12	11.638	[email protected]
	Kenny Stills	3800	11.4	10.725	[email protected]
	Victor Cruz	3800	11.4	6.84	[email protected]
	Paul Richardson	3400	10.2	3.753	[email protected]
	Geronimo Allison	3300	9.9	4.42	[email protected]
	Keith Mumphery	3000	9	1.536	[email protected]
	Andre Holmes	3000	9	2.788	[email protected]
	Seth Roberts	3000	9	6.981	[email protected]
	Johnny Holton	3000	9	0.58	[email protected]
	Wendall Williams	3000	9	3.833	[email protected]
	Andre Roberts	3000	9	3.113	[email protected]
	TJ Jones	3000	9	4.767	[email protected]
	Tanner McEvoy	3000	9	2.623	[email protected]
	Kasen Williams	3000	9	0	[email protected]
	Jace Billingsley	3000	9	0	[email protected]
	Darrius Heyward-Bey	3000	9	3.764	[email protected]
	Cobi Hamilton	3000	9	4.764	[email protected]
	Sammie Coates	3000	9	5.779	[email protected]
	Rashawn Scott	3000	9	0	[email protected]
	Jakeem Grant	3000	9	0.319	[email protected]
	Leonte Carroo	3000	9	0.85	[email protected]
	Demarcus Ayers	3000	9	8.05	[email protected]
	Dwayne Harris	3000	9	0.456	[email protected]
	Tavarres King	3000	9	1	[email protected]
	Trevor Davis	3000	9	0.945	[email protected]
	Jeff Janis	3000	9	2.256	[email protected]
	Roger Lewis	3000	9	2.208	[email protected]

Seems like every wide receiver in this group over $4,000 could easily reach their 3X goal in my opinion. Road Dogs like the Dolphins, Raiders and Lions will need to take to the air at some point. Kenny Stills 3X goal of 11.3 points could be achieved with just one big catch. Some would say he’s risky, but over the last four weeks Stills has had at least 12.2 DraftKings points.

Guys like Anquan Boldin always seem to step up when needed. If I could pick only one WR to score for the Lions this week I would probably pick him. He’s a redzone beast and a trusted veteran target for Matthew Stafford. The Lions will need to keep drives alive and hope Stafford’s injured finger doesn’t affect too many passes. The Lions have lost three in a row, all to NFC playoff teams including a tough one to the Packers last Sunday Night.

The Giants at Packers game is going to be a lot of fun. This NFC showdown should be the highest scoring game of the week despite the Steelers and Dolphins having the higher over/under. I really like Davante Adams to shine in this contest. He had 5 receptions for 85 and a score against the Giants in week 5 and considering his 3X goal is a modest 16.8 points I believe he could easily get there as long as he finds the endzone.

No surprise that the Raiders at Texans game has one of the lowest over/under totals in decades for a playoff game, but both teams could surprise us with taking some deep shots off play action pass. The more conservative team will likely lose this contest. It’s the playoffs, time to step up or get lost. I like DeAndre Hopkins 3X goal of 20.1 despite his season average. The Texans will feed him the ball and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 7+ catches. The Raiders will also need to find ways of getting their top two receivers more targets. I’m optimistic this game is better than most people are predicting. Don’t overlook the value.

DraftKings Tight Ends
Team	Name	Salary	3X Goal	Avg	Game
	Jimmy Graham	5300	15.9	12.519	[email protected]
	Ladarius Green	4500	13.5	9.567	[email protected]
	C.J. Fiedorowicz	4200	12.6	8.927	[email protected]
	Eric Ebron	3900	11.7	11.092	[email protected]
	Jared Cook	3600	10.8	7.57	[email protected]
	Jesse James	3000	9	5.675	[email protected]
	Ryan Griffin	2900	8.7	6.575	[email protected]
	Will Tye	2800	8.4	5.844	[email protected]
	Mychal Rivera	2500	7.5	3.323	[email protected]
	Clive Walford	2500	7.5	5.793	[email protected]
	Stephen Anderson	2500	7.5	2.023	[email protected]
	Clay Harbor	2500	7.5	0.327	[email protected]
	Matthew Mulligan	2500	7.5	0.225	[email protected]
	Luke Willson	2500	7.5	3.627	[email protected]
	Brandon Williams	2500	7.5	0.35	[email protected]
	Nick Vannett	2500	7.5	0.689	[email protected]
	David Johnson	2500	7.5	1.063	[email protected]
	MarQueis Gray	2500	7.5	1.963	[email protected]
	Dion Sims	2500	7.5	5.4	[email protected]
	Xavier Grimble	2500	7.5	2.9	[email protected]
	Dominique Jones	2500	7.5	2.122	Mia@Pit
	Thomas Duarte	2500	7.5	0	Mia@Pit
	Larry Donnell	2500	7.5	2.086	NYG@GB
	Richard Rodgers	2500	7.5	4.319	NYG@GB
	Jerell Adams	2500	7.5	2.631	NYG@GB

Jimmy Graham might end the week with the highest ownership percentage for a Tight End of the year. There aren’t too many sexy choices here although I do like Ladarius Green if he’s healthy. My bold prediction of the week will be that a Tight End in the $3,000 price range will reach 4 maybe even 5X his goal. A guy like Mychal Rivera or Will Tye could ruin a league if they get lucky in the redzone.

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Mike Rigz

Mike is the founding member at Gridiron Experts with over 1000+ articles credited to his name. With over 20 years of fantasy experience, Mike has a very unique style when picking sleepers and gems. He has always had a outside the box look on the NFL and rarely gets sucked into the hype over players or buzzing offenses. Mike looks at the game as a whole and doesn't focus solely on individual stats. Football is not Baseball, and you need to factor in more when researching players to draft. Mike has two kids and lives on the West Coast. He's happily married to a beautiful woman who also loves sports. Sundays are spent with friends and family watching games from opening kickoff to well into the evenings.