DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice
All season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).
As we are not publishing fantasy projections for the NFL playoffs with fantasy football season being over, I thought this week as a helpful guide I would talk about the potential of some of this weekends players chances of reaching that 3X goal in Draftkings. I’ve gone ahead and done the math for you to make life easier.
Quarterbacks
| DraftKings Quarterbacks | |||||
| Team | Name | Salary | 3X Goal | Avg | Game |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7900 | 23.7 | 25.564 | NYG@GB | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7600 | 22.8 | 19.94 | Mia@Pit | |
| Russell Wilson | 7000 | 21 | 18.254 | Det@Sea | |
| Eli Manning | 6100 | 18.3 | 16.011 | NYG@GB | |
| Matthew Stafford | 5700 | 17.1 | 18.986 | Det@Sea | |
| Brock Osweiler | 5100 | 15.3 | 12.399 | Oak@Hou | |
| Matt Moore | 5100 | 15.3 | 9.623 | Mia@Pit | |
| Connor Cook | 5000 | 15 | 2.667 | Oak@Hou | |
The salary and overall budgeting of daily fantasy costs can make it hard for the average DFS player to figure out true value. Aaron Rodgers 3X goal of gaining 23.7 DraftKings points seems very obtainable. Yet, spending that much on your QB will make life difficult to build a lineup that doesn’t involve a high-risk player in your flex spot. There are just four games this weekend, and with a high probability that Rodgers is the top owned quarterback I think I would rather build my team with a cheaper gunslinger and have money to spend on better options at wide receiver and in the Flex spot.
Eli Manning’s price point makes him the middle ground QB this week, but considering how the Giants offense can be so hot and cold from week to week, he’s also a difficult start in my opinion.
As much as Twitter has been making a laughing stock out of the Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler battle this Saturday, I’m tempted to take the contrarian approach and pick one of them as my QB. With reasonable 3X goals of just 15 points (15.3 for Brock) I feel I could get lucky and make it work. You may think I’m crazy, but 280 yards and a touchdown is all it’ll take for each of these two QB’s to reach their 3X goal, and you’ll save $2,800 in the process to spend on other positions.
No matter who you decide to go with this week, I think it’s fair to assume that stacking your QB with the teams top WR is a smart strategy. Yet to go one step further, I would also say you should throw in the stacking of the Tight End as well. Outside of Jimmy Graham, this playoff round doesn’t feature too many big name Tight Ends. If I were to pick a guy like Brock Osweiler, I think I would add not just Nuk but C.J. Fiedorowicz for safe measures.
[the_ad id=”65749″]| DraftKings Running Backs | |||||
| Team | Name | Salary | 3X Goal | Avg | Game |
| Le’Veon Bell | 10300 | 30.9 | 28.033 | Mia@Pit | |
| Jay Ajayi | 6800 | 20.4 | 15.22 | Mia@Pit | |
| Lamar Miller | 6100 | 18.3 | 14.579 | Oak@Hou | |
| Thomas Rawls | 5700 | 17.1 | 8.722 | Det@Sea | |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5600 | 16.8 | 10.31 | Mia@Pit | |
| Ty Montgomery | 5500 | 16.5 | 9.633 | NYG@GB | |
| Latavius Murray | 5000 | 15 | 15.371 | Oak@Hou | |
| C.J. Prosise | 4600 | 13.8 | 10.167 | Det@Sea | |
| Zach Zenner | 4500 | 13.5 | 6.714 | Det@Sea | |
| Alex Collins | 4500 | 13.5 | 3.355 | Det@Sea | |
| Alfred Blue | 4300 | 12.9 | 4.5 | Oak@Hou | |
| Rashad Jennings | 4200 | 12.6 | 10.646 | NYG@GB | |
| Aaron Ripkowski | 4100 | 12.3 | 2.913 | NYG@GB | |
| Paul Perkins | 4100 | 12.3 | 5.7 | NYG@GB | |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 4000 | 12 | 0.756 | Mia@Pit | |
| Damien Williams | 3600 | 10.8 | 6.293 | Mia@Pit | |
| Jalen Richard | 3400 | 10.2 | 7.219 | Oak@Hou | |
| Dwayne Washington | 3400 | 10.2 | 4.058 | Det@Sea | |
| Christine Michael | 3400 | 10.2 | 9.4 | NYG@GB | |
| DeAndre Washington | 3300 | 9.9 | 5.747 | Oak@Hou | |
| Akeem Hunt | 3300 | 9.9 | 2.1 | Oak@Hou | |
| Taiwan Jones | 3000 | 9 | 0.577 | Oak@Hou | |
| Jonathan Grimes | 3000 | 9 | 3.29 | Oak@Hou | |
| Jay Prosch | 3000 | 9 | 0.167 | Oak@Hou | |
| Jamize Olawale | 3000 | 9 | 3.588 | Oak@Hou | |
| Tyler Ervin | 3000 | 9 | 0.258 | Oak@Hou | |
| Marcel Reece | 3000 | 9 | 3.55 | Det@Sea | |
| Joique Bell | 3000 | 9 | 0.2 | Det@Sea | |
Running Backs
That being said, there aren’t too many other reliable RB choices to choose from this week. Dolphins Jay Ajayi, Seahawks Thomas Rawls and Texans Lamar Miller are all a little banged up heading into Wildcard Weekend. Ajayi has the most upside as a pure game changer with his breakaway speed, but if the Dolphins are trailing early will they continue to run the ball? Ajayi had only one target last week, and zero the week before. With just 24 receptions on the season, there is a strong possibility that Ajayi (32 Targets, 24 REC, 131 Yards, 0 Td’s) could be used heavy in the first half but lose touches to a player like Damion Williams (27 Targets, 20 REC, 226 Yards, 3 TD) in the second half due to the scoreboard. Damien Williams 3X goal is just 10.8 points, meaning a couple catches and a score could get him there.
The tale of the tape for Sunday's Wild Card matchup with Miami. 👇 pic.twitter.com/9xv4LUMhxg
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 3, 2017
Zach Zenner’s DraftKings salary has adjusted immensely in just one week (40% increase from week 17). The football world has clearly taken notice of this kids bruising running style and been impressed with his soft hands. I love watching Zenner run with the ball, but feel his 3X goal of 13.5 points might be tough to achieve against a very stout Seahawks run Defense. With limited sleeper choices, he did find his way on to a handful of Multiplier lineups for me.
| DraftKings Wide Receivers | |||||
| Team | Name | Salary | 3X Goal | Avg | Game |
| Antonio Brown | 9400 | 28.2 | 21.287 | Mia@Pit | |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 9100 | 27.3 | 19.35 | NYG@GB | |
| Jordy Nelson | 8000 | 24 | 20.044 | NYG@GB | |
| Doug Baldwin | 7000 | 21 | 16.413 | Det@Sea | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6700 | 20.1 | 12.713 | Oak@Hou | |
| Golden Tate | 6300 | 18.9 | 14.569 | Det@Sea | |
| Davante Adams | 5600 | 16.8 | 16.231 | NYG@GB | |
| Michael Crabtree | 5300 | 15.9 | 15.519 | Oak@Hou | |
| Amari Cooper | 5200 | 15.6 | 15.269 | Oak@Hou | |
| Jarvis Landry | 5100 | 15.3 | 15.331 | Mia@Pit | |
| Sterling Shepard | 4800 | 14.4 | 11.713 | NYG@GB | |
| Will Fuller V | 4400 | 13.2 | 9.586 | Oak@Hou | |
| DeVante Parker | 4200 | 12.6 | 10.693 | Mia@Pit | |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 4100 | 12.3 | 11.887 | Det@Sea | |
| Anquan Boldin | 4000 | 12 | 10.838 | Det@Sea | |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4000 | 12 | 6.131 | Det@Sea | |
| Eli Rogers | 4000 | 12 | 9.923 | Mia@Pit | |
| Randall Cobb | 4000 | 12 | 11.638 | NYG@GB | |
| Kenny Stills | 3800 | 11.4 | 10.725 | Mia@Pit | |
| Victor Cruz | 3800 | 11.4 | 6.84 | NYG@GB | |
| Paul Richardson | 3400 | 10.2 | 3.753 | Det@Sea | |
| Geronimo Allison | 3300 | 9.9 | 4.42 | NYG@GB | |
| Keith Mumphery | 3000 | 9 | 1.536 | Oak@Hou | |
| Andre Holmes | 3000 | 9 | 2.788 | Oak@Hou | |
| Seth Roberts | 3000 | 9 | 6.981 | Oak@Hou | |
| Johnny Holton | 3000 | 9 | 0.58 | Oak@Hou | |
| Wendall Williams | 3000 | 9 | 3.833 | Oak@Hou | |
| Andre Roberts | 3000 | 9 | 3.113 | Det@Sea | |
| TJ Jones | 3000 | 9 | 4.767 | Det@Sea | |
| Tanner McEvoy | 3000 | 9 | 2.623 | Det@Sea | |
| Kasen Williams | 3000 | 9 | 0 | Det@Sea | |
| Jace Billingsley | 3000 | 9 | 0 | Det@Sea | |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3000 | 9 | 3.764 | Mia@Pit | |
| Cobi Hamilton | 3000 | 9 | 4.764 | Mia@Pit | |
| Sammie Coates | 3000 | 9 | 5.779 | Mia@Pit | |
| Rashawn Scott | 3000 | 9 | 0 | Mia@Pit | |
| Jakeem Grant | 3000 | 9 | 0.319 | Mia@Pit | |
| Leonte Carroo | 3000 | 9 | 0.85 | Mia@Pit | |
| Demarcus Ayers | 3000 | 9 | 8.05 | Mia@Pit | |
| Dwayne Harris | 3000 | 9 | 0.456 | NYG@GB | |
| Tavarres King | 3000 | 9 | 1 | NYG@GB | |
| Trevor Davis | 3000 | 9 | 0.945 | NYG@GB | |
| Jeff Janis | 3000 | 9 | 2.256 | NYG@GB | |
| Roger Lewis | 3000 | 9 | 2.208 | NYG@GB | |
Guys like Anquan Boldin always seem to step up when needed. If I could pick only one WR to score for the Lions this week I would probably pick him. He’s a redzone beast and a trusted veteran target for Matthew Stafford. The Lions will need to keep drives alive and hope Stafford’s injured finger doesn’t affect too many passes. The Lions have lost three in a row, all to NFC playoff teams including a tough one to the Packers last Sunday Night.
The Giants at Packers game is going to be a lot of fun. This NFC showdown should be the highest scoring game of the week despite the Steelers and Dolphins having the higher over/under. I really like Davante Adams to shine in this contest. He had 5 receptions for 85 and a score against the Giants in week 5 and considering his 3X goal is a modest 16.8 points I believe he could easily get there as long as he finds the endzone.
No surprise that the Raiders at Texans game has one of the lowest over/under totals in decades for a playoff game, but both teams could surprise us with taking some deep shots off play action pass. The more conservative team will likely lose this contest. It’s the playoffs, time to step up or get lost. I like DeAndre Hopkins 3X goal of 20.1 despite his season average. The Texans will feed him the ball and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 7+ catches. The Raiders will also need to find ways of getting their top two receivers more targets. I’m optimistic this game is better than most people are predicting. Don’t overlook the value.
| DraftKings Tight Ends | |||||
| Team | Name | Salary | 3X Goal | Avg | Game |
| Jimmy Graham | 5300 | 15.9 | 12.519 | Det@Sea | |
| Ladarius Green | 4500 | 13.5 | 9.567 | Mia@Pit | |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4200 | 12.6 | 8.927 | Oak@Hou | |
| Eric Ebron | 3900 | 11.7 | 11.092 | Det@Sea | |
| Jared Cook | 3600 | 10.8 | 7.57 | NYG@GB | |
| Jesse James | 3000 | 9 | 5.675 | Mia@Pit | |
| Ryan Griffin | 2900 | 8.7 | 6.575 | Oak@Hou | |
| Will Tye | 2800 | 8.4 | 5.844 | NYG@GB | |
| Mychal Rivera | 2500 | 7.5 | 3.323 | Oak@Hou | |
| Clive Walford | 2500 | 7.5 | 5.793 | Oak@Hou | |
| Stephen Anderson | 2500 | 7.5 | 2.023 | Oak@Hou | |
| Clay Harbor | 2500 | 7.5 | 0.327 | Det@Sea | |
| Matthew Mulligan | 2500 | 7.5 | 0.225 | Det@Sea | |
| Luke Willson | 2500 | 7.5 | 3.627 | Det@Sea | |
| Brandon Williams | 2500 | 7.5 | 0.35 | Det@Sea | |
| Nick Vannett | 2500 | 7.5 | 0.689 | Det@Sea | |
| David Johnson | 2500 | 7.5 | 1.063 | Mia@Pit | |
| MarQueis Gray | 2500 | 7.5 | 1.963 | Mia@Pit | |
| Dion Sims | 2500 | 7.5 | 5.4 | Mia@Pit | |
| Xavier Grimble | 2500 | 7.5 | 2.9 | Mia@Pit | |
| Dominique Jones | 2500 | 7.5 | 2.122 | Mia@Pit | |
| Thomas Duarte | 2500 | 7.5 | 0 | Mia@Pit | |
| Larry Donnell | 2500 | 7.5 | 2.086 | NYG@GB | |
| Richard Rodgers | 2500 | 7.5 | 4.319 | NYG@GB | |
| Jerell Adams | 2500 | 7.5 | 2.631 | NYG@GB | |
Jimmy Graham might end the week with the highest ownership percentage for a Tight End of the year. There aren’t too many sexy choices here although I do like Ladarius Green if he’s healthy. My bold prediction of the week will be that a Tight End in the $3,000 price range will reach 4 maybe even 5X his goal. A guy like Mychal Rivera or Will Tye could ruin a league if they get lucky in the redzone.
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