Daily Fantasy

DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice: NFL Wildcard Weekend

All season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice

Gridiron 3x Daily FantasyAll season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

As we are not publishing fantasy projections for the NFL playoffs with fantasy football season being over, I thought this week as a helpful guide I would talk about the potential of some of this weekends players chances of reaching that 3X goal in Draftkings. I’ve gone ahead and done the math for you to make life easier.

DraftKings Quarterbacks
Team Name Salary 3X Goal Avg Game
Aaron Rodgers 7900 23.7 25.564 NYG@GB
Ben Roethlisberger 7600 22.8 19.94 Mia@Pit
Russell Wilson 7000 21 18.254 Det@Sea
Eli Manning 6100 18.3 16.011 NYG@GB
Matthew Stafford 5700 17.1 18.986 Det@Sea
Brock Osweiler 5100 15.3 12.399 Oak@Hou
Matt Moore 5100 15.3 9.623 Mia@Pit
Connor Cook 5000 15 2.667 Oak@Hou

aaron rodgersThe salary and overall budgeting of daily fantasy costs can make it hard for the average DFS player to figure out true value. Aaron Rodgers 3X goal of gaining 23.7 DraftKings points seems very obtainable. Yet, spending that much on your QB will make life difficult to build a lineup that doesn’t involve a high-risk player in your flex spot. There are just four games this weekend, and with a high probability that Rodgers is the top owned quarterback I think I would rather build my team with a cheaper gunslinger and have money to spend on better options at wide receiver and in the Flex spot.

Eli Manning’s price point makes him the middle ground QB this week, but considering how the Giants offense can be so hot and cold from week to week, he’s also a difficult start in my opinion.

As much as Twitter has been making a laughing stock out of the Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler battle this Saturday, I’m tempted to take the contrarian approach and pick one of them as my QB. With reasonable 3X goals of just 15 points (15.3 for Brock) I feel I could get lucky and make it work. You may think I’m crazy, but 280 yards and a touchdown is all it’ll take for each of these two QB’s to reach their 3X goal, and you’ll save $2,800 in the process to spend on other positions.

No matter who you decide to go with this week, I think it’s fair to assume that stacking your QB with the teams top WR is a smart strategy. Yet to go one step further, I would also say you should throw in the stacking of the Tight End as well. Outside of Jimmy Graham, this playoff round doesn’t feature too many big name Tight Ends. If I were to pick a guy like Brock Osweiler, I think I would add not just Nuk but C.J. Fiedorowicz for safe measures.

DraftKings Running Backs
Team Name Salary 3X Goal Avg Game
Le’Veon Bell 10300 30.9 28.033 Mia@Pit
Jay Ajayi 6800 20.4 15.22 Mia@Pit
Lamar Miller 6100 18.3 14.579 Oak@Hou
Thomas Rawls 5700 17.1 8.722 Det@Sea
DeAngelo Williams 5600 16.8 10.31 Mia@Pit
Ty Montgomery 5500 16.5 9.633 NYG@GB
Latavius Murray 5000 15 15.371 Oak@Hou
C.J. Prosise 4600 13.8 10.167 Det@Sea
Zach Zenner 4500 13.5 6.714 Det@Sea
Alex Collins 4500 13.5 3.355 Det@Sea
Alfred Blue 4300 12.9 4.5 Oak@Hou
Rashad Jennings 4200 12.6 10.646 NYG@GB
Aaron Ripkowski 4100 12.3 2.913 NYG@GB
Paul Perkins 4100 12.3 5.7 NYG@GB
Fitzgerald Toussaint 4000 12 0.756 Mia@Pit
Damien Williams 3600 10.8 6.293 Mia@Pit
Jalen Richard 3400 10.2 7.219 Oak@Hou
Dwayne Washington 3400 10.2 4.058 Det@Sea
Christine Michael 3400 10.2 9.4 NYG@GB
DeAndre Washington 3300 9.9 5.747 Oak@Hou
Akeem Hunt 3300 9.9 2.1 Oak@Hou
Taiwan Jones 3000 9 0.577 Oak@Hou
Jonathan Grimes 3000 9 3.29 Oak@Hou
Jay Prosch 3000 9 0.167 Oak@Hou
Jamize Olawale 3000 9 3.588 Oak@Hou
Tyler Ervin 3000 9 0.258 Oak@Hou
Marcel Reece 3000 9 3.55 Det@Sea
Joique Bell 3000 9 0.2 Det@Sea
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell’s 3X goal is 30.9 points, which seems high to me even with the 100-yard rushing bonus (3-points). Adding Bell to your lineup will eat up over 20% of your Draftkings lineup salary. Bell was rested last week against the Browns, which is great news for Steelers fans but Big Ben and Antonio Brown do plan to take some shots against this Dolphins defense that has been struggling as of late. If you add Bell to your lineup, you’re going to need at least two scores from him this weekend to reach his 3X goal.

That being said, there aren’t too many other reliable RB choices to choose from this week. Dolphins Jay Ajayi, Seahawks Thomas Rawls and Texans Lamar Miller are all a little banged up heading into Wildcard Weekend. Ajayi has the most upside as a pure game changer with his breakaway speed, but if the Dolphins are trailing early will they continue to run the ball? Ajayi had only one target last week, and zero the week before. With just 24 receptions on the season, there is a strong possibility that Ajayi (32 Targets, 24 REC, 131 Yards, 0 Td’s) could be used heavy in the first half but lose touches to a player like Damion Williams (27 Targets, 20 REC, 226 Yards, 3 TD) in the second half due to the scoreboard. Damien Williams 3X goal is just 10.8 points, meaning a couple catches and a score could get him there.

Thomas Rawls has the perfect matchup, but I feel we’ve been in this situation before. The Seahawks are happy the second year RB is active, but I think deep down they’re concerned about how much they can rely on him. Rawls has had a tough season dealing with nagging injuries, but if there was ever a time to get hot, now would be that time.

Zach Zenner’s DraftKings salary has adjusted immensely in just one week (40% increase from week 17). The football world has clearly taken notice of this kids bruising running style and been impressed with his soft hands. I love watching Zenner run with the ball, but feel his 3X goal of 13.5 points might be tough to achieve against a very stout Seahawks run Defense. With limited sleeper choices, he did find his way on to a handful of Multiplier lineups for me.

DraftKings Wide Receivers
Team Name Salary 3X Goal Avg Game
Antonio Brown 9400 28.2 21.287 Mia@Pit
Odell Beckham Jr. 9100 27.3 19.35 NYG@GB
Jordy Nelson 8000 24 20.044 NYG@GB
Doug Baldwin 7000 21 16.413 Det@Sea
DeAndre Hopkins 6700 20.1 12.713 Oak@Hou
Golden Tate 6300 18.9 14.569 Det@Sea
Davante Adams 5600 16.8 16.231 NYG@GB
Michael Crabtree 5300 15.9 15.519 Oak@Hou
Amari Cooper 5200 15.6 15.269 Oak@Hou
Jarvis Landry 5100 15.3 15.331 Mia@Pit
Sterling Shepard 4800 14.4 11.713 NYG@GB
Will Fuller V 4400 13.2 9.586 Oak@Hou
DeVante Parker 4200 12.6 10.693 Mia@Pit
Marvin Jones Jr. 4100 12.3 11.887 Det@Sea
Anquan Boldin 4000 12 10.838 Det@Sea
Jermaine Kearse 4000 12 6.131 Det@Sea
Eli Rogers 4000 12 9.923 Mia@Pit
Randall Cobb 4000 12 11.638 NYG@GB
Kenny Stills 3800 11.4 10.725 Mia@Pit
Victor Cruz 3800 11.4 6.84 NYG@GB
Paul Richardson 3400 10.2 3.753 Det@Sea
Geronimo Allison 3300 9.9 4.42 NYG@GB
Keith Mumphery 3000 9 1.536 Oak@Hou
Andre Holmes 3000 9 2.788 Oak@Hou
Seth Roberts 3000 9 6.981 Oak@Hou
Johnny Holton 3000 9 0.58 Oak@Hou
Wendall Williams 3000 9 3.833 Oak@Hou
Andre Roberts 3000 9 3.113 Det@Sea
TJ Jones 3000 9 4.767 Det@Sea
Tanner McEvoy 3000 9 2.623 Det@Sea
Kasen Williams 3000 9 0 Det@Sea
Jace Billingsley 3000 9 0 Det@Sea
Darrius Heyward-Bey 3000 9 3.764 Mia@Pit
Cobi Hamilton 3000 9 4.764 Mia@Pit
Sammie Coates 3000 9 5.779 Mia@Pit
Rashawn Scott 3000 9 0 Mia@Pit
Jakeem Grant 3000 9 0.319 Mia@Pit
Leonte Carroo 3000 9 0.85 Mia@Pit
Demarcus Ayers 3000 9 8.05 Mia@Pit
Dwayne Harris 3000 9 0.456 NYG@GB
Tavarres King 3000 9 1 NYG@GB
Trevor Davis 3000 9 0.945 NYG@GB
Jeff Janis 3000 9 2.256 NYG@GB
Roger Lewis 3000 9 2.208 NYG@GB
Seems like every wide receiver in this group over $4,000 could easily reach their 3X goal in my opinion. Road Dogs like the Dolphins, Raiders and Lions will need to take to the air at some point. Kenny Stills 3X goal of 11.3 points could be achieved with just one big catch. Some would say he’s risky, but over the last four weeks Stills has had at least 12.2 DraftKings points.

Guys like Anquan Boldin always seem to step up when needed. If I could pick only one WR to score for the Lions this week I would probably pick him. He’s a redzone beast and a trusted veteran target for Matthew Stafford. The Lions will need to keep drives alive and hope Stafford’s injured finger doesn’t affect too many passes. The Lions have lost three in a row, all to NFC playoff teams including a tough one to the Packers last Sunday Night.

The Giants at Packers game is going to be a lot of fun. This NFC showdown should be the highest scoring game of the week despite the Steelers and Dolphins having the higher over/under. I really like Davante Adams to shine in this contest. He had 5 receptions for 85 and a score against the Giants in week 5 and considering his 3X goal is a modest 16.8 points I believe he could easily get there as long as he finds the endzone.

No surprise that the Raiders at Texans game has one of the lowest over/under totals in decades for a playoff game, but both teams could surprise us with taking some deep shots off play action pass. The more conservative team will likely lose this contest. It’s the playoffs, time to step up or get lost. I like DeAndre Hopkins 3X goal of 20.1 despite his season average. The Texans will feed him the ball and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 7+ catches. The Raiders will also need to find ways of getting their top two receivers more targets. I’m optimistic this game is better than most people are predicting. Don’t overlook the value.

DraftKings Tight Ends
Team Name Salary 3X Goal Avg Game
Jimmy Graham 5300 15.9 12.519 Det@Sea
Ladarius Green 4500 13.5 9.567 Mia@Pit
C.J. Fiedorowicz 4200 12.6 8.927 Oak@Hou
Eric Ebron 3900 11.7 11.092 Det@Sea
Jared Cook 3600 10.8 7.57 NYG@GB
Jesse James 3000 9 5.675 Mia@Pit
Ryan Griffin 2900 8.7 6.575 Oak@Hou
Will Tye 2800 8.4 5.844 NYG@GB
Mychal Rivera 2500 7.5 3.323 Oak@Hou
Clive Walford 2500 7.5 5.793 Oak@Hou
Stephen Anderson 2500 7.5 2.023 Oak@Hou
Clay Harbor 2500 7.5 0.327 Det@Sea
Matthew Mulligan 2500 7.5 0.225 Det@Sea
Luke Willson 2500 7.5 3.627 Det@Sea
Brandon Williams 2500 7.5 0.35 Det@Sea
Nick Vannett 2500 7.5 0.689 Det@Sea
David Johnson 2500 7.5 1.063 Mia@Pit
MarQueis Gray 2500 7.5 1.963 Mia@Pit
Dion Sims 2500 7.5 5.4 Mia@Pit
Xavier Grimble 2500 7.5 2.9 Mia@Pit
Dominique Jones 2500 7.5 2.122 Mia@Pit
Thomas Duarte 2500 7.5 0 Mia@Pit
Larry Donnell 2500 7.5 2.086 NYG@GB
Richard Rodgers 2500 7.5 4.319 NYG@GB
Jerell Adams 2500 7.5 2.631 NYG@GB

Jimmy Graham might end the week with the highest ownership percentage for a Tight End of the year. There aren’t too many sexy choices here although I do like Ladarius Green if he’s healthy. My bold prediction of the week will be that a Tight End in the $3,000 price range will reach 4 maybe even 5X his goal. A guy like Mychal Rivera or Will Tye could ruin a league if they get lucky in the redzone.

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