Daily Fantasy

DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice: NFL Wildcard Weekend

Antonio Brown

All season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

DraftKings Sleepers & Lineup Advice

Gridiron 3x Daily FantasyAll season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

As we are not publishing fantasy projections for the NFL playoffs with fantasy football season being over, I thought this week as a helpful guide I would talk about the potential of some of this weekends players chances of reaching that 3X goal in Draftkings. I’ve gone ahead and done the math for you to make life easier.

Quarterbacks
DraftKings Quarterbacks
TeamNameSalary3X GoalAvgGame
Aaron Rodgers790023.725.564NYG@GB
Ben Roethlisberger760022.819.94Mia@Pit
Russell Wilson70002118.254Det@Sea
Eli Manning610018.316.011NYG@GB
Matthew Stafford570017.118.986Det@Sea
Brock Osweiler510015.312.399Oak@Hou
Matt Moore510015.39.623Mia@Pit
Connor Cook5000152.667Oak@Hou

aaron rodgersThe salary and overall budgeting of daily fantasy costs can make it hard for the average DFS player to figure out true value. Aaron Rodgers 3X goal of gaining 23.7 DraftKings points seems very obtainable. Yet, spending that much on your QB will make life difficult to build a lineup that doesn’t involve a high-risk player in your flex spot. There are just four games this weekend, and with a high probability that Rodgers is the top owned quarterback I think I would rather build my team with a cheaper gunslinger and have money to spend on better options at wide receiver and in the Flex spot.

Eli Manning’s price point makes him the middle ground QB this week, but considering how the Giants offense can be so hot and cold from week to week, he’s also a difficult start in my opinion.

As much as Twitter has been making a laughing stock out of the Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler battle this Saturday, I’m tempted to take the contrarian approach and pick one of them as my QB. With reasonable 3X goals of just 15 points (15.3 for Brock) I feel I could get lucky and make it work. You may think I’m crazy, but 280 yards and a touchdown is all it’ll take for each of these two QB’s to reach their 3X goal, and you’ll save $2,800 in the process to spend on other positions.

No matter who you decide to go with this week, I think it’s fair to assume that stacking your QB with the teams top WR is a smart strategy. Yet to go one step further, I would also say you should throw in the stacking of the Tight End as well. Outside of Jimmy Graham, this playoff round doesn’t feature too many big name Tight Ends. If I were to pick a guy like Brock Osweiler, I think I would add not just Nuk but C.J. Fiedorowicz for safe measures.

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DraftKings Running Backs
TeamNameSalary3X GoalAvgGame
Le’Veon Bell1030030.928.033Mia@Pit
Jay Ajayi680020.415.22Mia@Pit
Lamar Miller610018.314.579Oak@Hou
Thomas Rawls570017.18.722Det@Sea
DeAngelo Williams560016.810.31Mia@Pit
Ty Montgomery550016.59.633NYG@GB
Latavius Murray50001515.371Oak@Hou
C.J. Prosise460013.810.167Det@Sea
Zach Zenner450013.56.714Det@Sea
Alex Collins450013.53.355Det@Sea
Alfred Blue430012.94.5Oak@Hou
Rashad Jennings420012.610.646NYG@GB
Aaron Ripkowski410012.32.913NYG@GB
Paul Perkins410012.35.7NYG@GB
Fitzgerald Toussaint4000120.756Mia@Pit
Damien Williams360010.86.293Mia@Pit
Jalen Richard340010.27.219Oak@Hou
Dwayne Washington340010.24.058Det@Sea
Christine Michael340010.29.4NYG@GB
DeAndre Washington33009.95.747Oak@Hou
Akeem Hunt33009.92.1Oak@Hou
Taiwan Jones300090.577Oak@Hou
Jonathan Grimes300093.29Oak@Hou
Jay Prosch300090.167Oak@Hou
Jamize Olawale300093.588Oak@Hou
Tyler Ervin300090.258Oak@Hou
Marcel Reece300093.55Det@Sea
Joique Bell300090.2Det@Sea
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell’s 3X goal is 30.9 points, which seems high to me even with the 100-yard rushing bonus (3-points). Adding Bell to your lineup will eat up over 20% of your Draftkings lineup salary. Bell was rested last week against the Browns, which is great news for Steelers fans but Big Ben and Antonio Brown do plan to take some shots against this Dolphins defense that has been struggling as of late. If you add Bell to your lineup, you’re going to need at least two scores from him this weekend to reach his 3X goal.

That being said, there aren’t too many other reliable RB choices to choose from this week. Dolphins Jay Ajayi, Seahawks Thomas Rawls and Texans Lamar Miller are all a little banged up heading into Wildcard Weekend. Ajayi has the most upside as a pure game changer with his breakaway speed, but if the Dolphins are trailing early will they continue to run the ball? Ajayi had only one target last week, and zero the week before. With just 24 receptions on the season, there is a strong possibility that Ajayi (32 Targets, 24 REC, 131 Yards, 0 Td’s) could be used heavy in the first half but lose touches to a player like Damion Williams (27 Targets, 20 REC, 226 Yards, 3 TD) in the second half due to the scoreboard. Damien Williams 3X goal is just 10.8 points, meaning a couple catches and a score could get him there.

[the_ad id=”63198″]Thomas Rawls has the perfect matchup, but I feel we’ve been in this situation before. The Seahawks are happy the second year RB is active, but I think deep down they’re concerned about how much they can rely on him. Rawls has had a tough season dealing with nagging injuries, but if there was ever a time to get hot, now would be that time.

Zach Zenner’s DraftKings salary has adjusted immensely in just one week (40% increase from week 17). The football world has clearly taken notice of this kids bruising running style and been impressed with his soft hands. I love watching Zenner run with the ball, but feel his 3X goal of 13.5 points might be tough to achieve against a very stout Seahawks run Defense. With limited sleeper choices, he did find his way on to a handful of Multiplier lineups for me.

DraftKings Wide Receivers
TeamNameSalary3X GoalAvgGame
Antonio Brown940028.221.287Mia@Pit
Odell Beckham Jr.910027.319.35NYG@GB
Jordy Nelson80002420.044NYG@GB
Doug Baldwin70002116.413Det@Sea
DeAndre Hopkins670020.112.713Oak@Hou
Golden Tate630018.914.569Det@Sea
Davante Adams560016.816.231NYG@GB
Michael Crabtree530015.915.519Oak@Hou
Amari Cooper520015.615.269Oak@Hou
Jarvis Landry510015.315.331Mia@Pit
Sterling Shepard480014.411.713NYG@GB
Will Fuller V440013.29.586Oak@Hou
DeVante Parker420012.610.693Mia@Pit
Marvin Jones Jr.410012.311.887Det@Sea
Anquan Boldin40001210.838Det@Sea
Jermaine Kearse4000126.131Det@Sea
Eli Rogers4000129.923Mia@Pit
Randall Cobb40001211.638NYG@GB
Kenny Stills380011.410.725Mia@Pit
Victor Cruz380011.46.84NYG@GB
Paul Richardson340010.23.753Det@Sea
Geronimo Allison33009.94.42NYG@GB
Keith Mumphery300091.536Oak@Hou
Andre Holmes300092.788Oak@Hou
Seth Roberts300096.981Oak@Hou
Johnny Holton300090.58Oak@Hou
Wendall Williams300093.833Oak@Hou
Andre Roberts300093.113Det@Sea
TJ Jones300094.767Det@Sea
Tanner McEvoy300092.623Det@Sea
Kasen Williams300090Det@Sea
Jace Billingsley300090Det@Sea
Darrius Heyward-Bey300093.764Mia@Pit
Cobi Hamilton300094.764Mia@Pit
Sammie Coates300095.779Mia@Pit
Rashawn Scott300090Mia@Pit
Jakeem Grant300090.319Mia@Pit
Leonte Carroo300090.85Mia@Pit
Demarcus Ayers300098.05Mia@Pit
Dwayne Harris300090.456NYG@GB
Tavarres King300091NYG@GB
Trevor Davis300090.945NYG@GB
Jeff Janis300092.256NYG@GB
Roger Lewis300092.208NYG@GB
[the_ad id=”66786″]Seems like every wide receiver in this group over $4,000 could easily reach their 3X goal in my opinion. Road Dogs like the Dolphins, Raiders and Lions will need to take to the air at some point. Kenny Stills 3X goal of 11.3 points could be achieved with just one big catch. Some would say he’s risky, but over the last four weeks Stills has had at least 12.2 DraftKings points.

Guys like Anquan Boldin always seem to step up when needed. If I could pick only one WR to score for the Lions this week I would probably pick him. He’s a redzone beast and a trusted veteran target for Matthew Stafford. The Lions will need to keep drives alive and hope Stafford’s injured finger doesn’t affect too many passes. The Lions have lost three in a row, all to NFC playoff teams including a tough one to the Packers last Sunday Night.

The Giants at Packers game is going to be a lot of fun. This NFC showdown should be the highest scoring game of the week despite the Steelers and Dolphins having the higher over/under. I really like Davante Adams to shine in this contest. He had 5 receptions for 85 and a score against the Giants in week 5 and considering his 3X goal is a modest 16.8 points I believe he could easily get there as long as he finds the endzone.

No surprise that the Raiders at Texans game has one of the lowest over/under totals in decades for a playoff game, but both teams could surprise us with taking some deep shots off play action pass. The more conservative team will likely lose this contest. It’s the playoffs, time to step up or get lost. I like DeAndre Hopkins 3X goal of 20.1 despite his season average. The Texans will feed him the ball and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 7+ catches. The Raiders will also need to find ways of getting their top two receivers more targets. I’m optimistic this game is better than most people are predicting. Don’t overlook the value.

DraftKings Tight Ends
TeamNameSalary3X GoalAvgGame
Jimmy Graham530015.912.519Det@Sea
Ladarius Green450013.59.567Mia@Pit
C.J. Fiedorowicz420012.68.927Oak@Hou
Eric Ebron390011.711.092Det@Sea
Jared Cook360010.87.57NYG@GB
Jesse James300095.675Mia@Pit
Ryan Griffin29008.76.575Oak@Hou
Will Tye28008.45.844NYG@GB
Mychal Rivera25007.53.323Oak@Hou
Clive Walford25007.55.793Oak@Hou
Stephen Anderson25007.52.023Oak@Hou
Clay Harbor25007.50.327Det@Sea
Matthew Mulligan25007.50.225Det@Sea
Luke Willson25007.53.627Det@Sea
Brandon Williams25007.50.35Det@Sea
Nick Vannett25007.50.689Det@Sea
David Johnson25007.51.063Mia@Pit
MarQueis Gray25007.51.963Mia@Pit
Dion Sims25007.55.4Mia@Pit
Xavier Grimble25007.52.9Mia@Pit
Dominique Jones25007.52.122Mia@Pit
Thomas Duarte25007.50Mia@Pit
Larry Donnell25007.52.086NYG@GB
Richard Rodgers25007.54.319NYG@GB
Jerell Adams25007.52.631NYG@GB

Jimmy Graham might end the week with the highest ownership percentage for a Tight End of the year. There aren’t too many sexy choices here although I do like Ladarius Green if he’s healthy. My bold prediction of the week will be that a Tight End in the $3,000 price range will reach 4 maybe even 5X his goal. A guy like Mychal Rivera or Will Tye could ruin a league if they get lucky in the redzone.

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