Gridiron 3X: Top Projected DraftKings Plays Week 11
There are just seven weeks left in the NFL regular season. Are you reaching your cash game goals?
If you’re playing cash games on DraftKings, your goal for each player on your roster should be to score three times his salary.
For example, Thomas Rawls is $4,300 on DraftKings this week. For Rawls to score three times his salary, he would need to produce 12.9 points (4.300 x 3).
Finding players who will score three times their salary can be difficult, but a stable set of projections should be your starting point.
Last year, Gridiron Experts’ projections were very efficient in finding these players — we’ll call them our Gridiron 3X.
Our projections are posted every Tuesday morning by Jody Smith — you can find them here.
In the table below, you’ll see how often the average player surpassed 3X his salary last season — only players who were projected for more than 5.0 points were included to remove injured players and those with minor roles). Next to it, you’ll see how often our GX 3X guys surpassed 3X their salary. The difference between the two is in the final column:
So who fits the criteria in Week 11?
Blake Bortles, $5400, Projected 4.0x: Sure, Blake Bortles isn’t good, but he seemingly always finds a way to put up fantasy numbers. With a $5400 price tag this week, Bortles is the only QB in the GX projections with a projected 4X return. Bortles will face the Detroit Lions this week, a defense that has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Only two other teams are allowing more passing touchdowns per game, so Bortles has a good shot at a multi-touchdown performance on Sunday. With the Jags as 6.5-point underdogs, we should see Bortles dropping back to pass on nearly every play in the fourth quarter, which is where he shines — 41 percent of his yards and 60 percent of his touchdowns this season have come after the third quarter.
Dak Prescott, $6000, Projected 3.9x: Dak Prescott has officially won the Dallas Cowboys’ starting quarterback job and whether or not you agree with that decision, he’s been putting up fantastic fantasy totals in recent weeks. He’s scored at least two touchdowns (passing and/or rushing) in every game since Week 2 — this is the kind of consistency that is extremely beneficial for cash games. He’s still only $6000 on DraftKings this week, so a 3X performance won’t require a huge statistical day. Playing at home as a 7-point favorite, Prescott is one of the safest quarterback options in Week 11.
Russell Wilson, $6100, Projected 3.7x: Get ready for another dominant second half stretch from Russell Wilson — he’s not 100 percent healthy yet, but he played his best game of the season on Sunday night against the Patriots. His weapons in the passing game are both outstanding and diverse, while the emergence of C.J. Prosise bring another dimension to this offense. He won’t be this cheap for much longer, so put him in your lineups before he’s priced as a top-five QB. His salary will surely increase after a game this week against an Eagles’ defense flying across the country.
Other Gridiron 3X QBs: Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Cody Kessler, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, Jay Cutler
Theo Riddick, $5100, Projected 3.5x: Since Ameer Abdullah went down in Week 1, Theo Riddick has touched the ball at least 15 times in every game, making him one of the safer cheap running back options on DraftKings each week. With full PPR scoring, Riddick’s status is elevated further, as he’s on pace for 70 receptions this season. Riddick is averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per touch this season, so as long as he continues that efficiency and sees his usual 15 touches, he’ll easily reach 3X value this week (15.3 points).
James Starks, $4200, Projected 3.5x: James Starks returned from knee surgery last weekend and was immediately involved in the Packers’ offense. He played 55 snaps while touching the ball 10 times in a blowout loss to the Tennessee Titans. Converted WR Ty Montgomery played a limited role, which suggests that Starks will be the man in this backfield for the second half of the season. Only one team allows more rushing touchdowns per game than Starks’ opponent this week, the Washington Redskins. A cheap running back with a starter’s workload against a defense that allows 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game is a sure bet to hit 3X value.
C.J. Prosise, $4200, Projected 3.3x: So, C.J. Prosise has arrived. In last Sunday’s game against the Patriots, he played 54 snaps and carried the ball 17 times for 66 yards while catching all seven of his targets for another 87 yards. Prosise’s performance, combined with the return to health of Thomas Rawls, caused the Seahawks to flat out release former starting RB Christine Michael on Tuesday. Rawls will likely be eased into action, which means Prosise will carry the load in the meantime. For just $4200, it’s difficult to find a better workload/talent intersection.[wlm_nonmember]
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Other Gridiron 3X RBs: Isaiah Crowell, Le’Veon Bell, Kenneth Dixon, Frank Gore, Jay Ajayi, Chris Ivory, Spencer Ware, Jordan Howard, DeMarco Murray, T.J. Yeldon, Ryan Mathews
Quinton Patton, $3000, Projected 3.7x: I’m not sure what it will take for DraftKings to increase Quinton Patton’s salary. A week after catching six passes for 106 yards, Patton followed that performance with another nine targets last Sunday against the Cardinals. He’s averaged more than seven targets per game since Colin Kaepernick took over as the starter, yet his salary has remained at minimum price since Week 4. The 49ers are 13-point underdogs in a high total game this weekend against the Patriots (51.5), so we should expect Kaepernick to air it out in the second half. Given his volume, Patton is an easy play in Week 11.
DeVante Parker, $4100, Projected 3.6x: DeVante Parker played one of his best games of the season last week, both on film and in the box score. After battling a hamstring injury for a couple weeks, Parker looked fully healthy while turning five of his eight targets into 103 receiving yards. The Dolphins have stopped force feeding the ball to Jarvis Landry, which opens up the passing game to Ryan Tannehill’s other targets. Parker will face the Rams this week — they’ve allowed the second-most receptions to opposing wide receivers this season. Fully healthy and with a more featured role in the offense, Parker has an excellent chance to hit 3X value on Sunday.
Eddie Royal, $3400, Projected 3.5x: After missing multiple weeks with an injury, plus being limited in additional games, Eddie Royal returned last week and played 42 snaps. This is perfect timing for the Bears, as WR Alshon Jeffery was hit with a four-game suspension early this week. Royal will be a top option for his BFF Jay Cutler, as he should see elevated usage with Jeffery out of the lineup. Expect at least six targets for Royal against the Giants this week, which should be plenty enough opportunity for him to hit 3X value on his meager $3400 salary.
Other Gridiron 3X WRs: Tajae Sharpe, Jeremy Kerley, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, Seth Roberts, T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt, Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Sterling Shepard, Tavon Austin, Eli Rogers
Martellus Bennett, $3700, Projected 5.0x: There were varying reports on the severity of Rob Gronkowki’s chest injury early this week, but it now appears that it’s not as serious as originally feared. Regardless, it looks to be an uphill battle for Gronk to play in Week 11. If he can’t go, Martellus Bennett becomes a must-play at $3700. Bennett was heavily involved last week, hauling in 7 passes for 102 yards, and that could continue this week with the Patriots favored by 13 points over the 49ers. Tight ends are volatile from week-to-week in fantasy football so you almost have to view them like batters in MLB DFS — their floor is extremely low, so judge them by their upside. Bennett has one of the highest ceilings of any tight end this week, it’s just an added bonus that he’s only $3700.
Ladarius Green, $2500, Projected 4.6x: Ladarius Green was activated from the PUP list last week and managed to play 12 snaps against the Cowboys. Despite his limited playing time, he still saw four targets. This week, he’ll face a Cleveland Browns’ defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points to tight ends this season by a hefty margin. As long as Green has no setbacks and his role is further increased this week, a handful of targets should be enough for Green to reach 3X value against Cleveland. He only needs 7.5 points to hit that mark, which is just a third of the production that Cleveland is allowing per game to tight ends (20).
Zach Ertz, $3200, Projected: 3.7x: Zach Ertz has been more involved recently in the Eagles’ offense, catching 14 of his 15 targets over the last two games. Despite his production, his salary has dropped $500 on DraftKings with an impending matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Don’t be scared off by the matchup, however, as Seattle isn’t even in the top five for points allowed to tight ends. Ertz needs just 9.6 DK points to hit 3X value this week — with Seattle’s corners locking down the receivers while Wentz is under pressure, look for Ertz to get plenty of action in the short passing game on Sunday.
Other Gridiron 3X TEs: Charles Clay, Zach Miller, Julius Thomas, Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten, Cameron Brate, Will Tye, Eric Ebron, Vernon Davis, Lance Kendricks, Jack Doyle, Vance McDonald[/wlm_ismember]
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Brian has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and commissioned his first fantasy league at age 12. When he’s not writing about sports, you can find him playing every daily fantasy sport and participating in high stakes fantasy football contests. Brian won more than 1,000 NFL contests on FanDuel last season and has won multiple league championships in the Footballguys Player Championship contest. A graduate of the University of Maryland, Brian usually spends his winters agonizing over Terrapins basketball. When the weather is warmer, Brian is known for his receiving prowess in flag football leagues on the National Mall in Washington, DC.