Draftkings Lineup Tips for Week 7
By now it’s safe to say that everyone reading this is quite certain to have heard about Draftkings and other daily fantasy sites. Despite the recent controversies, daily fantasy sports remain immensely popular and continue to grow each and every day- at least in the states where it’s legal.
Halfway through the 2015 season, it’s been an up and down year in DFS. Even though I have access to strong stats and even participate in a weekly live video, I’ve more or less treaded water this season. A couple of losing weeks will be stopped by a profitable week, then another downer. That’s the way it goes, even for the pros.
With that said, Week 7 is shaping up to be a potentially profitable slate, as many players expected to perform well are reasonably priced at Draftkings. I wanted to break down some of the key players that I’ll be looking at, and some I may be fading this week.
While making my decisions, I wanted to give props to Gridiron Experts’ own Jen Ryan for her awesome analyzing fantasy targetspiece and to our George Fitopoulos for recognizing 5 players with outstanding matchups for Week 7.
Let’s get on to making some money on Draftkings this week. If you’re more of a Fanduel fan, be sure to read Brain Jester’s excellent write up here.
$8500 (vs. Jets)
Cash game players love to look at the extremely high floor for Brady, who is almost always a safe bet for 25+ points. A Brady/Gronk stack is the starting staple for many cash game players. But Week 7 is going to be a tough matchup for New England against a Jets secondary bolstered by cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis. So far this season, opposing QB’s are averaging only 16.4 points-per-game against the Jets- 2nd fewest in the league. It’s not that there’s anything wrong with paying up for Brady, it just seems like value can be had elsewhere.
$7600 (vs. Ravens)
Palmer is going to be highly owned this week, and for good reason. He’s tied for the most touchdown tosses in the league, has an outstanding receiving corps surrounding him, and has a tasty matchup with Baltimore’s league-worst pass defense. Palmer has exceeded 300 passing yards in each home contest this season, and should have no trouble doing so this week against the Ravens. Still modestly priced, Palmer makes an excellent cash game play, but will be highly owned in tournaments.
$5400 (vs. Buffalo in London)
For a guy who keeps delivering, Bortles’s cost sure isn’t rising with his results. Having already delivered a millionaire maker winner, Bortles continues to hover around the minimum, despite being the QB4 in season-long fantasy leagues. More good news for the Jags is that WR Allen Robinson is probable, giving Bortles a strong trio (Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas) of pass catchers and a solid matchup with a Buffalo secondary that’s given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers. Those looking to save a few bucks at quarterback will again be heavily targeting Bortles in Week 7.
Other QB values: Brian Hoyer $5300 (at Miami), Philip Rivers $6500 (vs. Oakland), Zach Mettenberger $5000 (vs. Atlanta)
$7900 (vs. Tennessee)
Expect Freeman to be highly owned (70%+) in cash lineups, but with his string of four straight games of 35+ points, pretty much a “must play” in that format. It should be noted that the Titans have the fourth strongest fantasy RB defense for the season, and have given up the fewest receptions and receiving yards to opposing runners. However, Miami’s Lamar Miller had no problems last week, so there’s no reason to think Freeman will drop off in Tennessee.
$5000 (vs. Cleveland)
Once the leg brace came off, Gurley put to bed any concerns of a time share and has looked outstanding leading the Rams’ backfield. In two starts before the bye, Gurley went off for 146 and 159 (6.2 ypc) yard performances and should be primed for another huge day against a Browns defense that has surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL. At only $5000, Gurley is a cash game lock.
$3200 (vs. Tampa)
The Washington backfield has been hard to handicap this season, but with pass catching specialist Chris Thompson doubtful to play, Jones stands out as a tremendous value play. After missing a game with a toe injury, Jones will be back to split carries with Alfred Morris. But with Thompson out, Jones will see an increased role in the passing game, making him a high floor play against a questionable Tampa run defense. At just $200 over the minimum, Jones is going to be all over my lineups this week, both cash and gpp’s.
Other RB’s to target: Adrian Peterson $7600 (contrarian GPP play at Detroit), Arian Foster ($7500 at Miami), Danny Woodhead ($4600 vs. Oakland), Lamar Miller ($4600 vs. Houston), Rashad Jennings ($4000 vs. Dallas), Theo Riddick ($3400 vs. Minnesota
$8600 (at Miami)
“Nuk” has been a fantasy hero to a Houston offense projected to break records in passing attempts. Eventually the Texans won’t have to attempt 50 passes per game, but Hopkins will remain the focal point and should remain a target hog. Hopkins has commanded 11+ targets in every game this season and has produced 27+ fantasy points in four straight.
Miami has a solid pair or cornerbacks in Brent Grimes and Jamar Taylor, but Hopkins will be used all over the field and should remain a top cash game play in DFS.
$5200 (vs. New Orleans)
Moncrief is a sneaky tournament play this week at home facing a shaky New Orleans secondary. Moncrief should be matchup up with New Orleans CB Brandon Browner, who is actually ranked as the worst cornerback in all of football according to Pro Football Focus. Not only that, Moncrief has been excellent with QB Andrew Luck in the lineup, hauling in 4+ balls and scoring in each of those four games.
With the highest over/under on the board for Week 7, Vegas is expecting plenty of points in this game. So should fantasy fans, and Moncrief makes a superb, high-floor tournament or cash play this week.
$3500 (vs. Oakland)
Johnson has missed some time with a bum hamstring, but after participating in practice all week, looks good to go for Week 7. When he’s played, Johnson has caught 3+ balls in every game, with a pair of touchdowns. With TE Antonio Gates questionable for this game, Johnson could see a few more targets out of the slot, where he has a big advantage against Oakland cornerback D.J. Hayden. There are a ton of low cost options this week, and a healthy Stevie Johnson makes for a solid contrarian tournament play.
Other WR’s to target: Calvin Johnson $7700 (vs. Minnesota), Mike Evans $6400 (at Washington), Eric Decker $5300 (at New England), Martavis Bryant $4700 (gpp play at Kansas City), Michael Crabtree $4300 (at San Diego), Chris Hogan $3300 (at Jacksonville in London), Michael Floyd $3200 (vs. Baltimore)
$5000 (vs. Oakland)
What seems like the perfect cash game play comes with some risk. Gates hasn’t practiced all week with a sprained MCL, but that won’t necessarily preclude him from playing. As we all know the Raiders have been dreadful against tight ends, while Gates has accumulated 27 targets in his two games, with nine grabs in each. Quite simply, if Gates is active, he’s a must play cash game. If not, pivot over to LaDarius Green who at $2900 would be an outstanding value. Green has actually out-snapped Gates over the last two weeks, 115-114 as the Chargers have utilized ’12’ sets.
$4300 (at Jaguars in London)
With both starting wideouts Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin declared out already, Clay is going to be Buffalo’s top target this week. Even with EJ Manuel under center in Week 6, Clay still commanded a season-high 13 targets and nine grabs. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has had it’s own fair share of difficulties defending the pass, so Clay is in store for a busy morning. Clay is moderately priced and comes with a low floor, making him one of my favorite options in both cash and gpp’s for this slate
$3300 (vs. Houston)
It’s been a rough go for the Miami offense, but the arrival of new head coach Dan Campbell started off promising. Cameron has been misused as a deep threat over the middle, which is a poor fit for Ryan Tannehill‘s limited arm strength. Cameron has only hauled in 15 of 31 targets, but he did manage to get a touchdown in Campbell’s debut. For this week, the Dolphins host a Houston defense that has been lit up by Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, and Julius Thomas so far. Cameron is priced so low that he makes for an intriguing “punt” at the position.
Other TE’s to think about: Travis Kelce $4900 (vs. Steelers), Ben Watson $3300 (at Colts), Zach Ertz $3200 (at Panthers)
Jody Smith is the Senior Writer at Gridiron Experts and is a 25-year fantasy football veteran and was FantasyPro’s Most Accurate Expert in 2012. Follow him on twitter @JodySmithNFL, or challenge him on Draftkings at JodySmith.
Senior Writer Gridiron Experts. 2012 FantasyPros Most Accurate Fantasy Expert. Member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. 26-year fantasy football veteran. Featured on NFL.com, Fantasypros, Football Diehards annual magazine, local AM sports radio, podcasts everywhere and SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Once scored 4 touchdowns in a single game for Polk High School.