DraftKings Picks: Week 4
It is Week 4 of the weekly DraftKings GPP Tournament series. I hope you are picking up some cash. Here is where I try to give you a few plays that I hope will help you get some money out of your GPP plays. Of course, the Milli Maker is ideal, but many GPP plays exist. From single entry tournaments to massive entry and the entry fee varies too.
For your GPP entries, don’t even think about the floor. We are only looking up at the ceiling. Now that we are in Week 4. Here is what we want:
- Players with high ceilings
- Players that are good but are in a bad matchup
- And the cojones to do what everyone else won’t (to an extent)
Let’s do this.
Here is what won $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire on DraftKings Week 3. They still scored $210.88, but not every player was hot. Notice, please, the wackiness of the entry.
- QB Lamar Jackson, 43.42 points, $8000, 2.31%
- RB Leonard Fournette, 12 points, $6500, 15.96%
- RB Dameon Pierce, 18.10 points, $5000, 13.90%
- WR Alan Lazard, 14.40 points, $6000, 1.41%
- WR Jaylen Waddle, 18.10 points, $6800, 16.86%
- WR DeVonta Smith, 33.90 points, $5200, 5.61%
- TE Mark Andrews, 28.90 points, $6900, 2.64%
- FLEX Mack Hollins, 32.96 points, $3300, 8.81%
- DST Jaguars, 9.00 points, $2300, 15.72%
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens v Buffalo Bills, $8300
Jackson is the second-highest quarterback on the main slate. For a good reason, Jackson leads the NFL in touchdown passes (10), has two rushing touchdowns, and is the fifth leading rusher. He is averaging 37.8 DraftKings points per game, and this game has the highest predictive point total (53.5), and the Ravens are a three-point underdog.
If we want to believe the game script, the Ravens will be playing from behind at home. If you use anyone in this game (and you should want a piece of this game), it will be expensive, so you may have to get creative with your stack.
Think of using Devin Duvernay (more on that later) in your stack for a little more room. Duvernay comes in at $4100.
Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons v Cleveland Browns, $5600
Mariota offers the rushing upside. This game is in Atlanta (for now, weather permitting), and the Browns are favored by three. It has the third highest total point prediction (46.5).
The downside is that Atlanta is 31st in passing attempts per game (26.3). The upside is that Mariota has a 63.3% completion percentage and 25 rushing attempts. It also doesn’t hurt that the Browns’ defense is giving up 240 passing yards per game (18th), allowing 34.7 passing attempts and 21 completions, which is a 60.52% completion percentage.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions, $5400
Honestly, I do not hate this. Did you know that Seattle has the seventh highest passing percentage in the league (66.06%)? Smith is averaging 34.3 pass attempts per game and is rocking a 77.5% completion percentage.
The better news is that this game has the second-highest total points prediction (49.5), with Detroit favored by six. So, not only will Seattle probably be playing from behind, but Detroit is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to the quarterback position (26.3).
Smith hasn’t eclipsed more than 19 fantasy points per game. But this was against both Denver and San Francisco’s defenses. Last week against Atlanta, he had 18.9 fantasy points.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants v Chicago Bears, $8000
Barkley is the fourth most expensive running back on the slate, which feels too low. Barkley is first in DraftKings scoring for running backs. He is the only running back to have 20-plus fantasy points in more than one matchup (33.40 and 22.60).
He averages 22 touches per game and is on the field for 86.3% of the offensive plays.
This week the Giants play the Bears at home. This game has the lowest implied total on the main slate (39.5), and the Giants are a three-point favorite. The Giants should roughly score three touchdowns. They have scored five offensive touchdowns this season. Barkley has two of them. He also has 15 targets that raise his ceiling.
The Bears have given up the seventh most fantasy points to the running back position (19.3) and have allowed the third most rushing yards per game (157).
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions v Seattle Seahawks, $6100
With D’Andre Swift playing, Williams averaged 16 touches per game. He leads the Lions in rushing attempts and touchdowns. He is tied in the NFL for lead in red zone rushing attempts (11) and touchdowns (4).
Now that Swift is out, it is all (well, mostly there is Craig Reynolds) Williams. Look for Williams to be chalky, but don’t let that dissuade you from using him this week.
The Lions play the Seahawks at home, where they are a six-point favorite. Last week Cordarrelle Patterson decimated the Seahawks with 141 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown on 17 carries.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears @ New York Giants, $5700
Herbert’s ultimate value will depend on David Montgomery’s status. If he plays, it lowers Herbert’s ceiling. If Montgomery is out for the game, Herbert becomes a good value play. The Bears are first in rushing percentage (65.41%) and have the second-most rushing attempts per game (34.7).
When Montgomery went out last week, Herbert finished the game with 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He had two targets.
The Giants are giving up the third-most fantasy points to the running back position (20). Monitor Montgomery.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens, $8400
Tada, Diggs is the most expensive wide receiver on the main slate. In two of his three games, he has double-digit targets (in week one, he had nine targets), four touchdowns in three games, and he is third in wide receivers with red zone targets (5). Last week he was on the field for 70.33% of the offensive snaps, ran 53 routes, and was targeted 11 times.
If this game lives up to the hype, it has the highest over/under of any game of the week (53.5), and the Ravens’ defense is playing wounded.
Playing Diggs (especially if you stack with Josh Allen or run back with Jackson) will cause you to have to get creative with the rest of your lineup. But if this game lives up to the hype, it could be worth it.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys v Washington, $6700
This matchup allows you to take advantage of two things. On the Monday night play when the price doesn’t change on DraftKings loophole, and two Washington’s defense (well, actually, Lamb should be taking advantage of that).
Washington is giving up the second most fantasy points to the wide receiving position (31.3) and 34.1 average points to the wide receiver playing outside.
Lamb is fourth in air yards this season (356), is on the field for 95.1% of the offensive snaps, and has a 33.7% target share.
It shouldn’t matter if Cooper Rush or Dak Prescott throws him the ball.
Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens v Buffalo Bills, $4100
This game has the highest point total prediction. The Bills’ secondary could be missing players, and Duvernay is priced low enough that if you want to use Jackson, it makes it a little more palatable.
Last week Duvernay was on the field for 61.02% of the offensive snaps. He ran 22 routes (the third most on the team) with two targets. He finished with two receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown. The game got out of hand in the third quarter. This week will be more competitive.
DraftKings has several free contests that you can enter this week on their main slate. Here are a few links.
Modelo $5K Fight To The Top
As always, good luck and happy October!
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.