DraftKings Picks Week 2
Another NFL week, this time hopefully without the rust.
Before I jump into my Week 2 DraftKings picks, I wanted to share an old-school DFS method for finding value when building a DraftKings Lineup. It may be nothing special to some of our readers, but for new players, I think it’s worth sharing. It’s called the 3X method (or 2.5X as some prefer)
What is the 3X method?
The 3X method sets a target score of three times a player’s salary divided by 1,000 to help you predict positive performance. For example, a $6,000 salary needs about 18 DraftKings points to be considered a good play. A $5,000 salary needs 15. 7,500 salary needs 22.5, you get the idea.
Treat cash and GPP differently. In cash games, aim for safe volume that meets or slightly beats 3X. Late news starters at low prices help you fit premium studs while still clearing your floor.
In tournaments, keep 3X as the bar, but sort by ceiling, leverage, and correlation. Stack a quarterback with one or two teammates in higher total games, and add a bring-back when it makes sense. Correlation raises the odds that multiple pieces cross 3X in the same script.
Other Tips:
- Do not chase fluky touchdowns
- Ignore high ownership or chalky plays
- Underrated Stack is the RB + Defense
Matchup: Bears at Lions
- Week 2 Salary: $6000
- Week 1 Salary: $6,500
The Lions didn’t look themselves last week, but they played the Packers on the road, which is looking like a top 5 defense in the NFL this season. Goff didn’t put up a lot of points, but his numbers weren’t bad. He was 31 for 39, for 225 yards with one TD and one 1 INT.
This week, they take on the Bears, who lost on Monday Night, making it a short week road game. Goff was priced at $6,500 last week, so you receive a discount due to his subpar performance in week 2.
While the matchup is appealing, and the price is a bargain, I think the reason I like the Lions this week, Goff and St. Brown in particular, is from the press coverage and sound bites I’ve heard from them post-Packers loss. They are handling the loss like an elite team would, not making excuses, but acknowledging that a loss early on is good for them, and how, in years past, it was precisely what they needed to jump-start their season. A slap in the face, so to speak.
I can’t see the Lions starting their season 0-2, so this game is big. I expect better production from the offseason in Week 2
Matchup: 49ers at Saints
- Week 2 Salary: $6100
- Week 1 Salary: $6300
DraftKings priced Kamara $200 cheaper than last week, and his matchup at home against a banged-up 49ers team has caught my eye. The 49ers are making a cross-country trip and playing in New Orleans this Sunday with backup quarterback Mac Jones. Jones has never played in the Caesars Superdome (formerly known as the Superdome), but tends to struggle in games likes these.
Mac Jones Split Stats
Mac Jones’ QBR drops to under 80 on the road and in dooms. The combination of both could mean turnovers and short fields for the Saints.
I like Kamara + Saints Defence as a stack. One of my fav week 2 DraftKings picks
Matchup: Giants at Cowboys
- Week 2 Salary: $7800
- Week 1 Salary: $7900
I didn’t expect Lamb to be priced $100 cheaper than he was in week 1. Sure, he didn’t find the end zone and had some big drops, but the Cowboys can get back on the horse in Week 2 with a win, playing in another divisional matchup, this time against the Giants. The GMEN struggled on defense, allowing 432 total yards in week 1, most of which were on the ground; however, considering the Cowboys’ lean pass-heavy approach, this could be a big game for Lamb to shine.
Saying the second high-priced wide receiver on the slate is a “value” is a joke, I know, but honestly, I expceted him to be costing a lot more.
Matchup: Eagles at Chiefs
- Week 2 Salary: $7800
Dallas Goedert has officially been ruled out, meaning there is a bargain starter available in a potentially high-scoring game. Calcaterra was a 2022 6th-round pick by the Eagles, but has played a solid supporting role behind Goedert. At his DraftKings price point, he doesn’t have to do much and gives you a chance to find more expensive talent in other places in your lineup.
Quick Hits
- Saints Defence $2500 – I spoke about how I like them and Kamara in a stack. The Saints could play spoiler in week 2
- Troy Franklin WR ($3700) seems underpriced. He saw six targets last week, hauling in four receptions. He and Bo Nix are buddies; both thrived as a QB-WR combo at Oregon two years ago. He didn’t have the rookie season I expected, but I feel a breakout game is coming.
- Dylan Sampson RB ($5200) – Grabbing all eight targets last week was impressive, just wish he could do more in the running game.
- Trey Benson RB ($4600) – 69 yards on just eight carries deserves more touches, but will the coaches give them to him?
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