DraftKings NFL Picks Week Three
One of the facets of fantasy analysis that can be the most important is transparency about who you recommend every week. If there’s no reason to listen to me, I’m not doing anyone any favors with this Free Bet Info. With that in mind, we’ll always have the scores from the previous week to reinforce things went well or trying to figure out where things went poorly.
- Jared Goff – 20.1
- Josh Allen – 22.2
- Sony Michel – 13.3
- Derrick Henry – 17.4
- Keenan Allen – 17.8
- Michael Gallup – 12.8
- Darren Waller – 12.3
That’s a pretty solid week, as we got the highest-scoring Qb and the 2nd highest RB. Before we get started, let’s address the elephant in the room. The Oakland Raiders are going to be very, very chalky in cash games.
I think you can play virtually any combination of QB Derek Carr, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Tyrell Williams, and TE Darren Waller. I might not play all four and get too crazy, but we’re going to discuss some other options. Just understand they will be popular and understand that eating chalk is good in cash games for the most part.
More often than not, this article isn’t going to focus on players like Saquon Barkley or Odell Beckham type players. They are always cash viable and will be expensive for a reason. We’re aiming to highlight more of the middle salaried players to round out your lineup.
We want a lot of touches from the running backs, and preferably some receiving chances since DK is PPR scoring. From the receivers, we want a healthy target share and preferably the teams number 1 or 1A target in the passing game. Finally, we generally want 250 passing yards and two touchdowns from the QB. Some of the sites we’re using to gather some data are as follows –
- Daily Roto – Daily Roto has Redzone data, snap counts, targets, and an awesome Lineup optimizer
- The Quant Edge – TQE has a WR/CB matchup tool that’ll be perfect for WR Start/Sits
- FantasyData – Advanced player metrics, stats and live odds for week one
$4,000 at Arizona Cardinals
This might be a weird name to see at the top, but Cam Newton is almost assuredly out for this one. Allen is bottom dollar price and to hit 3x, you just need 12 points. So let’s do the math – 8 points come from 200 passing yards and 4 points comes from 1 touchdown. That’s really not much and in his one NFL start, he generated 266 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 19 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. That style of line would crush value and the Cardinals have been terrible vs the QB position so far with 5 TD’s allowed already. Allen checks in 1st overall at the QB position in FantasyData’s Its/$1K metric and he lets you spend on whatever else you would like.
$5,800 vs Carolina Panthers
While Josh Allen is still too cheap and perfectly fine in cash games again for $100 more, I’m going to Kyler here as he is already 4th in passing yards in the league. He leads the league in passing attempts and volume is king in fantasy football, which is why being in the top 5 in plays per game helps Murray as well. After racking up 349 passing yards on the road in Baltimore, I have the utmost confidence in Murray in just about any spot he can come up against. He’s only 17th in fantasy points, but that’s only because he’s thrown just 2 passing touchdowns. Considering he’s tied for 2nd in red zone pass attempts, it seems like it’s just a matter of time before the touchdowns come. When they do, he’s going to be a fantasy force.
$8,900 vs Miami Dolphins
I say that I’ll try to avoid the big-name players, but my goodness is Zeke just in an incredible spot. The Cowboys are more than 20 point favorites and yes, Zeke might not get a full game. The Cowboys should blow them right out of the water but I would be surprised if Zeke doesn’t get at least 100 yards on the ground and a score. He jumped back up to over 75% of the snaps last week and touched the ball 25 times so there is no question about the overall workload after missing all of training camp. Miami is 2nd in the league in rushing yards allowed at 307…by one yard. They’ve also given up 3 rushing touchdowns already and Elliott should not be under $9,000 in this game environment.
$4,400 vs Cincinnati Bengals
He has absolutely no sizzle but when you’re going to get 20 touches from a back vs the team that does lead the league in rushing yards allowed, you almost have to take it. Gore is the infinite one and he will outlive everyone reading this and he shapes up to be without Devin Singletary. I will not play him in GPP’s because I don’t know if Gore has any type of upside at this point in his career. Realistically you just need 60 rushing yards, a touchdown and a reception to pay off at 3x and the Bengals are averaging 154 yards per game with 1.5 touchdowns, just on the ground. Through the air, Cincy has surrendered 11 receptions, 119 yards and 2 TD’s.
$5,100 vs Carolina Panthers
If you play Kyler, you should really think about playing one of his top receivers since Fitzgerald is underpriced still. They haven’t caught up to his production and Fitzgerald sits 9th in receiving yards, 6th in air yards and tied for third in targets. Yet, he’s barely over $5,000 and it’s so easy to put him in. With the opportunity he gets every drive, 15 DK seems close to a lock. On top of everything else, Fitzgerald is tied for 1st in red zone targets with Emmanuel Sanders and Zach Ertz.
$3,600 vs Detroit Lions
I’m assuming Agholor is going to be one of the chalkiest players on this entire slate in cash, which is fine to just take the free square and move on in that format. After stepping in for DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery Sunday night, he produced 8 receptions for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Both those receivers look to be out again, and Agholor played at least 80% of the snaps in bth games. He’s a fine receiver when he has to be and with 62 of 77 snaps last week coming from the slot, he should avoid Darius Slay from the Lions for the majority of the game. I like the idea of skipping him in GPP but for cash it’s just an easy fit to get to a player like Zeke.
Call me crazy, but TE is sort of loaded at every tier this week. You have the big three up top and Zach Ertz really benefits from the WR that should be out. The cheaper tier features Greg Olsen vs the worst defense against TE and then you have Mark Andrews as well in the mid-tier. All of these plays are fine depending on how you build, but Engram feels like one of the safer players not named Ertz. Engram is tied for 10th in targets in the league, and now should get Sterling Shepard back in the fold. Adding Shepard just makes it harder to focus in on Engram and Tampa hasn’t figured out how to guard the position despite some early improvement. The Bucs have allowed the 6th most DK and that has come without giving up a TD. Engram could be a little overlooked but he certainly shouldn’t be this week.
Be sure to check out all the other Gridiron Experts content to help you win your DFS contests this week and we’ll be back in Week 3!
I’m a sports fanatic who wears it on my sleeve (seriously, I have a Pittsburgh sports tattoo). I’m just a big scruffy looking nerf-herder who somehow managed to marry an incredible and supportive woman, have a wonderful family and a sweetheart dog. When I’m not at work, odds are I’m watching sports or the latest comic book movie. Life is good, it’s just much better with fantasy football in it. The sarcastic and above it all fantasy analysis is overdone, I’m here to bring it back to what you need to know with a terrible sense of humor. Let’s win some fantasy titles!