DraftKings NFL Picks Week One
We made it guys. The summer is officially over and we have football back in our lives, which is a great feeling. Winning some money in DFS is also a great feeling and the aim of this article is to highlight some choices for players to put in your lineup for cash games over on DraftKings. For anyone new to DFS, we’re looking for safety in our cash plays.
More often than not, this article isn’t going to focus on players like Saquon Barkley or Odell Beckham type players. They are always cash viable and will be expensive for a reason. We’re aiming to highlight more of the middle salaried players to round out your lineup.
We want a lot of touches from the running backs and preferably some receiving chances since DK is PPR scoring. From the receivers, we want a healthy target share and preferably the teams number 1 or 1A target in the passing game. Finally, we generally want 250 passing yards and 2 touchdowns from the QB. Some of the sites we’re using to gather some data are as follows –
- Daily Roto – Daily Roto has Redzone data, snap counts, targets, and an awesome Lineup optimizer
- The Quant Edge – TQE has a WR/CB matchup tool that’ll be perfect for WR Start/Sits
- FantasyData – Advanced player metrics, stats and live odds for week one
$5,700 vs Washington
Not only is Carson Wentz healthy and possibly in the most dangerous offense he’s been in for his entire career, but he also tops the point per $1,000 projections at FantasyData at 3.52 DK points. The next closest is Kirk Cousins at 3.34, so Wentz has a relatively healthy lead in the category. Wentz might not need to put the pedal to the floor in this game since the Washington offense may not be able to generate points to stick with Philly. However, he seems like one of the safest bets on the board for that 250 passing yards and 2 touchdowns since the Redskins finished 19th vs the quarterback last year. The price of $5,700 makes him very easy to fit into any lineup.
$6,000 vs Miami
If you have $300 to spend, moving up to Lamar Jackson could pay off as well. We talked about looking for 250 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, and Jackson might not get you that through the air. What he will do is run the football, and that is fantasy gold. The Dolphins represent a sweetheart matchup for Jackson as well if last year’s trends hold up since Miami was third in rushing yards allowed to the QB position. If Jackson rushes for 50 and scores a touchdown, you’re already closing in on 2x value before he even throws a pass.
$6,000 vs Atlanta
Even before I looked at much else, one price stood out among the rest for the RB position in Week 1. That was Dalvin Cook only being $6,000 for a matchup against a team that bleeds receptions to the running back, and has for multiple seasons. Cook racked up 40 targets in 11 games last season and he appears to be fully healed more than a year removed from an ACL tear. The Falcons do welcome back linebacker Deion Jones from injury most of last season, but that doesn’t change the fact that the scheme is set up to allow the reception and funnel to the ball. Combined with coach Mike Zimmer’s renewed commitment to the run and Gary Kubiak on board as an offensive consultant, Cook is due to hit the ground running this year.
$5,500 vs Indianapolis
There’s a lot of candidates here including Chris Carson, Nick Chubb and possibly even Todd Gurley who is under $8,000. My guy in the second spot is going to be Austin Ekeler because he’s most valuable on a PPR site and he gets a terrific matchup for that facet of the game. The Colts were very much a bend and don’t break defensive unit last year, and they allowed the 4th most receptions to the running back. Even in a part-time role last year behind Melvin Gordon and playing 14 games, Ekeler finished 21st in the league with 39 receptions.
*Note – Dede Westbrook and Chris Godwin are among the most popular options at the position. Instead of giving you the same blurb everyone else is, let’s take a look at some alternatives.
$6,000 vs Cincinnati
We talked about safety and Lockett certainly is going to represent that this week. He is going to be the clear number one in the Seattle offense and should slide into the slot a little more with Doug Baldwin retired. Out of the slot last year, Lockett caught 26 of 29 targets and scored 5 times. Cincinnati surrendered the 10th most yards to receiver and 15 touchdowns so Lockett is in a great spot and ranks 5th in points per $1,000 via FantasyData.
$5,700 vs Carolina
There’s plenty of people who might overlook Kupp coming off an ACL injury himself in November. Everything we’ve heard coming from the Rams has been beyond positive as far as his recovery goes. Even if he’s a little more limited than they are leading us to believe, Kupp is Jared Goff’s best friend in the red zone. Last season, he was on pace for roughly 25 redzone targets and 12 touchdowns. The red zone targets would have been 7 fewer than the league leader, Davante Adams. The target share gets divided in the Los Angeles offense but touchdowns are the great equalizer and he’s in a game that holds one of the highest over/unders on the slate.
$6,600 vs Tampa Bay
Paying up for tight end isn’t always the most ideal on a slate when you’re trying to pay up for a CMC or Alvin Kamara. Week 1 gives us a unique opportunity since the pricing is so soft that we can afford luxuries like a high priced tight end and Kittle is that man this week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a terrible defense all the way around last season and defending the tight end was no exception. They gave up the 4th most yards and were lucky to only give up 5 touchdowns. His 28% target share might come down a touch but that led him to the 12th most targets in the league in 2018. He won’t need that exact share to pay off in the shootout game of the week.
Be sure to check out all the other Gridiron Experts content to help you win your DFS contests this week and we’ll be back in Week 2!
I’m a sports fanatic who wears it on my sleeve (seriously, I have a Pittsburgh sports tattoo). I’m just a big scruffy looking nerf-herder who somehow managed to marry an incredible and supportive woman, have a wonderful family and a sweetheart dog. When I’m not at work, odds are I’m watching sports or the latest comic book movie. Life is good, it’s just much better with fantasy football in it. The sarcastic and above it all fantasy analysis is overdone, I’m here to bring it back to what you need to know with a terrible sense of humor. Let’s win some fantasy titles!