DraftKings NFL Picks Week 7

DraftKings NFL Picks

This week, I traded my weekly Start’em Sit’em column to take on the DraftKings piece after three solid DFS wins in the last three weeks. I’ve been riding the Cowboys trio (Dak, Pickens, Ferguson) to paydirt, and was asked to share some key roster builder tips for the NFL slate in week 7. Of course, you should always check out Matt Diapella’s GPP Lineup Builder Tips. He has been helping me with parts of my lineups over the last month, and I highly recommend his article. 

When I’m building a DraftKings lineup, I ask myself two questions:

Question 1: Which QB Throws for 300 Yards?

That 3-point DraftKings bonus for hitting 300 passing yards is a game-changer. It’s the difference between a good QB performance (280 yards, 2 TDs equals 23 points) and a slate-breaking one (310 yards, 2 TDs equals 26 points). In large-field tournaments, those three bonus points can move you from outside the money to the top 10%. It’s free scoring that most casual players don’t prioritize when building lineups.

Target quarterbacks in high total games where the over/under sits at 47 points or higher, as both teams will be forced to throw. Fast-paced offenses playing against poor pass defenses create natural volume. Negative game scripts where trailing QBs air it out in garbage time also produce 300-yard performances. Dome games or perfect weather eliminate environmental concerns that cap passing volume. Teams without a strong run game who live through the air are prime candidates.

The 300-yard threshold isn’t random. It signals volume. Volume creates touchdown opportunities, which creates ceiling. When you identify the QB most likely to attempt 40-plus passes, you’ve found your foundation.

Question 2: Which Game Becomes a Shootout?

Stacking players from high-scoring games is DFS 101, but most players chase the wrong games. The Vegas total matters less than the game environment. A 50-point total means nothing if it’s 35-14 and both teams are running clock in the fourth quarter.

Look for games featuring two solid offenses with suspect defenses, where both teams can score repeatedly throughout all four quarters. Quarterbacks who will throw in any situation, rather than run-heavy game managers, ensure the air attack continues even with leads. Division rivalry emotion often creates back-and-forth momentum swings that prevent blowouts.

When you find the shootout game, stack it aggressively. Roster the QB plus two pass-catchers from the same game. The correlated scoring multiplies your upside exponentially.

Putting It Together

Start every DFS week by answering these two questions. Find the 300-yard QB. Find the shootout game. Build around those answers. Everything else, including value plays, defense selection, and contrarian pivots, serves these core decisions.

The field chases bargains and fades chalk. Winners chase volume and game environment. Keep it simple.

Patrick Mahomes

DraftKings Salary: $7,000

Opponent: vs. Las Vegas Raiders | Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Sometimes in DFS, the chalk is chalky for a reason. Patrick Mahomes at $7,000 against the Raiders is one of those spots where you don’t need to get cute. Mahomes has been absolutely scorching over the last three weeks, posting 27+ DraftKings points in three consecutive games with two 30+ point explosions. Last week against Detroit on Sunday Night Football, he carved up a top defense for 257 yards and 4 total touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) en route to 30.17 fantasy points.

This isn’t 2018 Mahomes launching 50-yard bombs every other play. This is 2025 Mahomes playing the most efficient football of his career while somehow adding career-high rushing production. He’s already matched his career-high with 4 rushing touchdowns through six games and is averaging 37.0 yards per game on the ground. That dual-threat upside gives him a ceiling most $7K QBs don’t have.

The Raiders Funnel to the Pass

Here’s where it gets spicy. Las Vegas ranks top-10 in most advanced run defense metrics, but sits 19th in EPA per dropback allowed. Translation? They’re begging you to throw on them, and the Chiefs are happy to oblige. Kansas City leads the entire NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), meaning they’re already passing more than any team in football relative to game situations. Against a Raiders defense that plays zone coverage 86% of the time (2nd-highest rate in the league), Mahomes gets his favorite looks all day.

The numbers back it up: Since Xavier Worthy returned in Week 4, Mahomes has completed 23-of-30 passes (76.7%) for 9.8 yards per attempt against Cover 3 looks. The Raiders run Cover 3 at a 45.9% clip, the highest in the NFL.

The Weapons Are All Back

This is the first week of the season where Mahomes has his full arsenal:

• Xavier Worthy (speed threat who opened everything up upon return)
• Rashee Rice (returning from 6-game suspension as the zone-buster)
• Hollywood Brown (deep threat who’s been productive when healthy)
• Travis Kelce (averaging 6.0 receptions over the last 3 games)

Rice’s return is particularly crucial. He was Mahomes’ favorite red-zone target before the suspension, and against a Raiders defense that’s vulnerable in zone coverage, he should immediately re-establish chemistry with his QB. Kansas City is a massive home favorite at Arrowhead. But here’s the beauty: even if the Chiefs go up early, they’re not a team that takes their foot off the gas with Mahomes under center. And if the Raiders somehow keep it close? We’re looking at 40+ dropbacks in a game where Mahomes has historically tormented this division rival.

Career numbers vs. the Raiders: Mahomes has thrown 4+ passing TDs against Vegas four times already. They don’t have an answer for him.

I like the Mahomes + Rice + Worthy stack. Pricey but if they go off, it won’t matter. 

DFS Recap

Patrick Mahomes is my QB1 on the slate. Hot form, elite matchup, full complement of weapons, and a team that will lean on him regardless of game script. Sometimes the best play is the obvious play.

• Confidence Level:  (5/5)
• Ownership Projection: 23% GPP / 35% Cash
• Ceiling: 38+ DK points
• Floor: 22+ DK points

DFS PIVOT PLAY

Caleb Williams

DraftKings Salary: $7,000

Opponent: vs. New Orleans Saints | Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

At $5,800, Caleb is easily the top bargain among QBs priced above $5,200. You’re getting a QB who’s averaging 20.5 DraftKings points per game (QB12) for the price of a streamer. AND the savings are significant. $1,200 cheaper than Mahomes with a matchup that’s as good. Fading Mahomes for Williams gives you $1,200 in salary to upgrade elsewhere. That’s the difference between a punt WR and a stud. That’s how you fit multiple elite pieces into your lineup while everyone else is making sacrifices.

Ben Johnson Is Cooking

Let’s talk about what’s changed in Year 2. Caleb Williams under Matt Eberflus in 2024? A sack-prone rookie who got hit 68 times and looked overwhelmed. Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson in 2025? A confident second-year QB averaging 20+ fantasy points and making NFL defenses look silly. Johnson’s offense is QB-friendly by design. Look at what he did with Jared Goff, turned him into a spreadsheet-dominating fantasy asset. The scheme emphasizes:

• Quick throws over the middle (Bears were 28th in this stat last year, Johnson’s Lions were 1st)
• Pre-snap motion to create easy reads
• High-percentage completions that let the YAC do the work

Williams is already showing the results. He posted a career-high 142.6 passer rating in Week 3 with 4 touchdowns against Dallas, and he’s been clutch in crunch time all season. The growth is tangible.

The Saints’ Defense is also a funnel to the pass. New Orleans ranks:

• 27th in pass defense EPA (dead last tier)
• 3rd in allowing passing touchdowns (14 through 6 games)
• 5th in rush defense EPA (elite against the run)

Meaning, the Saints dare you to throw on them, and then they can’t stop it. Chicago doesn’t have much of a run game anyway (D’Andre Swift is solid but not a bellcow), so this plays perfectly into the Bears’ hands. Williams should be airing it out 30+ times in a game where 4.5 points at home favor the Bears.

The Revenge Game Narrative

Don’t sleep on this subplot: Dennis Allen is Chicago’s defensive coordinator this year. He was the Saints’ head coach until they fired him earlier this season. Allen knows Spencer Rattler (the Saints’ QB) inside and out, and this matchup has all the makings of a defensive game plan that forces New Orleans to play from behind.

If Chicago jumps out early – which they should at home- Williams gets to play with a lead and pile up volume against a defense that’s allowed QBs to hit 20+ fantasy points consistently.

Ownership

This article is coming out late, and while Gridiron Experts has a large following, I think Williams will be overlooked. With Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, and Dak Prescott all in premium matchups, Williams’ ownership should stay reasonable, probably in the 8-12% in GPPs. That’s leverage city. He’s the 4th-highest optimal rate at QB on DraftKings behind only Mahomes, Daniels, and Justin Herbert, but he’ll be rostered far less than those guys. If Williams goes off for 25-30 points in a home blowout win, you’ll be stacked in a unique build with salary to spare.

Stacks

• Williams + Odunze + DJ Moore (Burden is Moore can’t go) 
• Williams + Swift + Odunze with Shaheed comeback
• Williams solo, then jam in studs at RB/WR with your savings

DFS Recap

In cash games? I still lean toward Mahomes for safety. But in GPPs, give me Williams all day. The salary savings, leverage, and ceiling make him a must-play in tournaments.

• Confidence Level: (4/5)
• Ownership Projection: 8-12% GPP / 5% Cash
• Ceiling: 32+ DK points
• Floor: 16+ DK points

Contrarian Boom? 

Saquon Barkley

DraftKings Salary: $7,700

The Vikings’ elite 2024 run defense allowed just 93.4 yards per game (2nd in the NFL). Brian Flores’ aggressive scheme stuffs everything at the point of attack. But here’s what’s actually happening in 2025: The Vikings’ run defense has completely fallen off a cliff.

• 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (132.2)
• 23rd in yards per carry allowed (4.5)
• 26th in rushing first downs allowed
• Bottom-third EPA/Run

That’s not a typo. The Vikings went from 2nd to 24th in run defense year-over-year. Despite bringing back Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, this unit is getting gashed on the ground regularly.

Why The Regression?

The Vikings lost key pieces in the offseason, and it’s showing:

• Cam Bynum (starting safety) left in free agency
• Andrew Van Ginkel is currently OUT with a neck injury (ruled out Friday)
• The aggressive blitz scheme that worked in 2024 is now leaving gaps in run fits

Teams are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against Minnesota, that is nearly a full yard better than Barkley’s season average (3.42 YPC). If there’s ever a get-right spot for a struggling back, this is it.

The Barkley Counter-Narrative

Yes, Barkley has been terrible by his standards:

• 3.42 YPC (down from 5.8 last year)
• Just 54.2 rushing yards per game
• Only 88 rushing yards in his best game

But here’s the thing: volume + touchdown equity in a plus matchup = DFS value, even at $7,700.

Barkley is still getting:

• Lead back work (95 carries leads all RBs)
• Red zone involvement (3 rushing TDs, five receiving TDs)
• Pass-catching usage (24 receptions, 243 yards)

Against a Vikings defense that’s 24th against the run and missing key pieces? Barkley could easily post 80+ rushing yards, catch 4-5 balls for 40 yards, and find the end zone once. That’s 20+ DK points, which hits value at this price.

The Ownership Angle Gets Interesting

Everyone will fade Barkley because:

1. He’s been terrible all year
2. People remember the 2024 Vikings defense
3. The Eagles are struggling and on a 2-game skid
4. The 43.5-point total is uninspiring

If ownership comes in at 5 to 8% because the public is fading him, and Barkley goes off for 25+ in a game where the Eagles lean on the run with a lead, that’s massive leverage in tournaments.

DFS Recap

• Cash Games: Still lean toward safer options like Jonathan Taylor or Josh Jacobs
• GPPs: Barkley becomes an interesting contrarian play at projected low ownership
• Revised Confidence Level: (3/5 – GPP Pivot)
• Ownership Projection: 5-8% GPP
• Ceiling: 30 DK points (if the Eagles get up early and feed him)
• Floor: Still 8-10 points (the Eagles offense is broken)

SMASH

Harold Fannin Jr

DraftKings Salary: $3,900

If you’re building DraftKings lineups for Week 7’s main slate and haven’t locked in Harold Fannin Jr. at tight end, you might want to reconsider. The Cleveland Browns rookie finds himself in a dream scenario against the Miami Dolphins, and at just $3,900, he’s offering salary relief without sacrificing upside. David Njoku has been officially ruled out with a knee hyperextension suffered against Pittsburgh. 

The numbers from last week tell you everything you need to know about Fannin’s expanded role when Njoku left the game. After the veteran tight end exited in the fourth quarter, Fannin finished with 7 catches for 81 yards on 10 targets. That target volume is exactly what we’re hunting for in DFS, especially at this price point.

Rapport with Dillon Gabriel

Fannin has been a security blanket for rookie QB Dillon Gabriel through two starts. The Browns’ signal-caller has shown clear chemistry with his fellow first-year player, and the numbers back it up:

• 28 receptions on 38 targets (73.7% catch rate)
• 254 yards and 1 TD on the season
• Team-leading 42.3 yards per game
• 11 catches for 94 yards and a TD over the last two games combined

Gabriel hasn’t thrown an interception yet, suggesting he’s leaning on high-percentage throws to reliable targets. That’s exactly what Fannin provides.

The Dolphins’ defense has been an absolute sieve in 2025:

• Ranked 31st in opponent EPA
• Ranked 31st in DVOA (bottom 3 in the league)
• Allowing consistent production to opposing pass-catchers
• Struggles particularly in the short-to-intermediate game where Fannin operates

Miami has given up production to tight ends all season, and now they’re facing a Browns team that will be forced to lean on their young tight end with Njoku sidelined.

DFS Recap

• Confidence Level: (4/5)
• Ownership Projection: 20% GPP / 35% Cash
• Ceiling: 20+ DK points
• Floor: 10+ DK points