DraftKings NFL Picks Week Four
One of the facets of fantasy analysis that can be the most important is transparency about who you recommend every week. If there’s no reason to listen to me, I’m not doing anyone any favors with this free DFS info. With that in mind, we’ll always have the scores from the previous week to reinforce things went well or trying to figure out where things went poorly.
Last Week’s Recap:
- Kyle Allen – 25.3
- Kyler Murray – 19.8
- Ezekiel Elliot – 18.9
- Frank Gore – 16.9
- Larry Fitzgerald – 14.6
- Nelson Agholor – 23.0
- Evan Engram – 26.3
Another very solid week in the books as the lowest score hit just about 3x and we’re ready to move on to Week 4!
More often than not, this article isn’t going to focus on players like Saquon Barkley or Odell Beckham type players. They are always cash viable and will be expensive for a reason. We’re aiming to highlight more of the middle salaried players to round out your lineup.
We want a lot of touches from the running backs, and preferably some receiving chances since DK is PPR scoring. From the receivers, we want a healthy target share and preferably the team’s number 1 or 1A target in the passing game. Finally, we generally want 250 passing yards and two touchdowns from the QB. Some of the sites we’re using to gather some data are as follows –
- Daily Roto – Daily Roto has Redzone data, snap counts, targets, and an awesome Lineup optimizer
- The Quant Edge – TQE has a WR/CB matchup tool that’ll be perfect for WR Start/Sits
- FantasyData – Advanced player metrics, stats and live odds for week one
$6,100 at Arizona Cardinals
After Patrick Mahomes, Wilson leads the pack in Proj/$1K on FantasyData and that metric has been excellent for us all season long. Wilson is sure to be a popular QB after little-known Kyle Allen carved the Arizona defense up for over 25 DK points and Wilson is above a 71% completion rate on the year. The Cards are allowing over 30 DK per game to the QB and about the only worry here is the Seahawks can get ultra-conservative and run the ball 35+ times. Even giving Wilson 25 attempts should more than pay this off for the *checks notes* lowest price on the season.
$5,300 vs Washington Redskins
The choice of Jones at the number six pick drew plenty of ridicule in the offseason, but Jones took his first step in proving a lot of folks wrong by racking up over 39 DK and scoring 4 total touchdowns in his first start. Washington is over 29 DK points given up and the spread is only 3 points, meaning this game is basically a pick ’em. Jones also has some rushing ability and didn’t show any rookie nerves or unwillingness to push the ball downfield(looking at you, Mason Rudolph) and he’s in a 2nd straight great spot.
$8,000 at Miami Dolphins
This slate is a bit of an oddity because only 2 running backs are $8,000 or more. Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Dalvin Cook are either not on the slate, hurt or in awful matchups. That means most will flock to Austin Ekeler one last time and he ranks 6th in Proj/$1K, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Melvin Gordon won’t be back until next week which means Ekeler should see a minimum of 15 touches vs a Dolphins “defense” that is over 600 scrimmage yards to RB in just 3 games. Ekeler is an exception to the adage of being cautious with West coast teams out East, and he should be very popular this week.
$5,600 at Detroit Lions
Given the practice reports, Shady is going to be the head of the “committee” for the Chiefs as Damien Williams missed practice again and appears to be out for the 2nd straight game. We saw McCoy touch the ball 11 times in a game where he aggravated an injury and left early, but appears to be healthy coming into this tilt. The Lions are in the bottom 5 in DK points allowed to the RB and are over 500 scrimmage yards themselves with 3 TD’s total. You’re telling me that I can get a Chiefs back at well under $6,000 in an incredible spot? I’m quite alright with that.
Note – Terry McLaurin stands to be quite popular and someone who is an easy cash play, but popped up on the injury report Thursday. Let’s go over some other options if you need them.
$5,800 vs Washington Redskins
Personally, I never mind playing a QB-WR stack in cash games because 10 point touchdowns are awesome and the double production for everything else is a Nic bonus too. It has to make sense, and this is a perfect example because Jones targeted Shepard 9 times last week and that was the team lead. If the raw targets aren’t enough, Washington is the second-worst vs the WR position in part because they’ve given up 8 TD’s already, two more than any other team in the league.
$6,500 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kupp has been in this article once already, but he is still an excellent play on this slate after going absolutely bonkers last week. He is the number one in the Rams offense as far as Jared Goff is concerned, as he leads the team with 31 targets. He’s 7th in the Proj/$1K and gets a matchup with M.J. Stewart in the slot. Stewart has already allowed 115 yards and a touchdown on just 10 receptions and Kupp should be able to add to that number in a big way this week.
$3,600 at Arizona Cardinals
If you’re looking for someone to tell you to not play Dissly in cash, you’re going to have to go elsewhere because he’s one of the first players I put in my lineup. It’s really simple in that if you’re a competent tight end and you’re playing Arizona, you’re going to be in my lineup. They have given up 5 TD’s already in just 3 games and have the DK points given up lead by right under 12 points per game. 13 teams don’t even average giving up 12 points a game to the TE, so that tells you how big the gap is. Dissly is the only TE over 3.00 points int he Proj/$1K and is locked in for cash for me.
Be sure to check out all the other Gridiron Experts content to help you win your DFS contests this week and we’ll be back in Week 5!
Thanks for reading & Good Luck!