DraftKings NFL Picks Week Two
One of the facets of fantasy analysis that can be the most important is transparency about who you recommend every week. If there’s no reason to listen to me, I’m not doing anyone any favors with this article. With that in mind, we’ll always have the scores from the previous week to reinforce things went well or trying to figure out where things went poorly.
- Carson Wentz – 28.0
- Lamar Jackson – 36.6
- Austin Ekeler – 39.4
- Dalvin Cook – 29.0
- Cooper Kupp – 11.6
- Tyler Lockett – 11.4
- George Kittle – 13.4
That’s a pretty solid week, as we got the highest-scoring Qb and the 2nd highest RB. Before we get started, let’s address the elephant in the room. The Oakland Raiders are going to be very, very chalky in cash games.
I think you can play virtually any combination of QB Derek Carr, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Tyrell Williams, and TE Darren Waller. I might not play all 4 and get too crazy, but we’re going to discuss some other options. Just understand they will be popular and understand that eating chalk is good in cash games for the most part.
More often than not, this article isn’t going to focus on players like Saquon Barkley or Odell Beckham type players. They are always cash viable and will be expensive for a reason. We’re aiming to highlight more of the middle salaried players to round out your lineup.
We want a lot of touches from the running backs and preferably some receiving chances since DK is PPR scoring. From the receivers, we want a healthy target share and preferably the teams number 1 or 1A target in the passing game. Finally, we generally want 250 passing yards and 2 touchdowns from the QB. Some of the sites we’re using to gather some data are as follows –
- Daily Roto – Daily Roto has Redzone data, snap counts, targets, and an awesome Lineup optimizer
- The Quant Edge – TQE has a WR/CB matchup tool that’ll be perfect for WR Start/Sits
- FantasyData – Advanced player metrics, stats and live odds for week one
$5,900 vs New Orleans
One metric that really came through for us last week was the Projected Points/$1K that FantasyData has, and they are on very similar players that I am before utilizing it. The Saints have to come across the country on a short week and a highly emotional win. Additionally, Goff comes in 5th in the points/$1K projection among all QB’s and there could be a quiet reason why.
Goff was absolutely incredible last year at home. Sure, most quarterbacks and even players are, but Goff was out of this world in 2018. He averaged over 342 yards, threw 22 touchdowns in 8 games and that was against only 3 interceptions. At under $6,000 and in the game that currently carries the highest over/under on the slate, he seems like quite the bargain.
$5,300 at New York Giants
Allen may be on the road but he checks in as the highest points/$1K among all quarterbacks. Allen is a player that legitimately starts out with a free touchdown plus a little bit more through his 13 games in his career at 51.5 yard rushing per contest. If he can’t find anything downfield, he takes off and runs because 508 of 631 rush yards last year came from scrambles. In 1 game this year, 30 of 38 came from scrambles so this doesn’t appear to be anything changing soon.
Allen had 11 red zone rushes last year and had another one in Week 1 with a 3 yard TD. Seeing how the Giants gave up the 2nd most passing yards of any team last week, so there might even be additional ceiling for Allen this week. As good as he’s been for fantasy so far in his career, he has yet to eclipse 255 yards passing. That could change this week.
$6,200 at Miami Dolphins
It was a highly disappointing game last week for Michel, but the Steelers defense has been tough against the run game for quite a while now. Normally, one-dimensional running backs on the road aren’t going to be the route to take in cash games. Most of those times aren’t on teams that are up to 19 point favorites, depending on where you look.
Miami led the league in rushing yards allowed in Week 1 and we have reports of DB Minkah Fitzpatrick asking out of town via trade. This team has already folded their tents for the season, and Michel is going to have all the chances he could ask for in a bounce-back scenario.
$6,000 vs Indianapolis Colts
Another player that I’m not always very excited for in cash because you have to nail the game flow element. If the Titans get far behind, Henry likely isn’t the player you want as he’s now up to a total of 40 receptions in 48 games. However, with Jacoby Brissett at the helm for the Colts, I don’t think Tennessee gets blown out at home.
The Colts gave up 119 yards on 20 carries to the Chargers, and with due respect to Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, they aren’t the style of back that Henry is. When the game is close, he’s going to get fed and Henry already has 4 rushing attempts in the red zone, tied for 4th after 1 week. Touchdowns will always make up for lack of receiving.
$7,600 at Detroit Lions
I know we’re stretching the boundaries of what is a mid-range play but Allen’s opportunity is simply too good to ignore. Unfortunately for the Chargers, injuries have already reared their ugly head and TE Hunter Henry and WR Mike Williams are out, or likely to be out as of this writing. With 22% of the Week 1 target share now on the sideline, Allen is in line for 30%+ of any Philip Rivers pass attempts.
Allen also had about an even snap count between out wide and in the slot, which I wonder if he moves more into the slot. If so, he will most avoid Lions CB Darius Slay, who only played about 90 slot snaps in 2018. With Allen being an accomplished slot WR and a projection of double-digit targets, he is my favorite cash receiver on the slate.
$5,600 at Washington
It really seems like Gallup has gotten lost in the shuffle after Week 1, and maybe folks are blowing off his monster game due to it being against the Giants. That’s fine, but the Cowboys are using pre-snap motion over 70% and upped their play-action rate by over 20% to 48% in their first game. This is a very different offense and Gallup is going to be a big beneficiary in this offense.
He gets a Washington offense that got worked over by the Philly passing game with well over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Both Quinton Dunbar and Josh Norman are on the outside and both gave up 6 receptions and over 70 yards. Gallup also has Amari Cooper on the other side, taking up all the attention. The offense in Big D is the real deal.
$3,300 vs Kansas City Chiefs
I can’t go anywhere else but this for cash games, since Waller was spectacular in Week 1, leading the team in targets with about a 30% target share. His price is silly low and he leads the position at points/$1K this week.
It’s hard to argue that since Waller didn’t leave the field the first time around and drew more raves from the coaching staff. We heard that all offseason, but ask Bears RB David Montgomery how that’s going in Chicago. He was a former wide receiver and he played 22 of the 55 snaps either in the slot or out wide. We know that Derek Carr will target the TE as Jared Cook had a 19.6% target share. That’s an easy bet at the price.
Be sure to check out all the other Gridiron Experts content to help you win your DFS contests this week and we’ll be back in Week 2!