Daily Fantasy

DraftKings Lineup Advice: Divisional Round

legarrette blount fantasy

I got to say, last week was solid. I not only made a few nice sleeper picks and predictions but I made some decent money playing in Multipliers. I’m really digging the 10X boosters. Check out this week’s picks

DraftKings Advice

Daily Fantasy TipsAll season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

As we are not publishing fantasy projections for the NFL playoffs with fantasy football season being over, I thought this week as a helpful guide I would talk about the potential of some of this weekends players chances of reaching that 3X goal in Draftkings. I’ve gone ahead and done the math for you to make life easier.

Last Week Recap

[the_ad id=”66786″]I got to say, last week was solid. I not only made a few nice sleeper picks and predictions but I made some decent money playing in Multipliers. I’m really digging the 10X boosters. You can read last week’s article here.

Predictions I Got Right

  • Aaron Rodgers will hit his 3X goal of 23.7 points (he crushed it)
  • Eli Manning wasn’t worth the risk
  • Brock Osweiler, bang for buck will produce. The Texans played a solid game, and surprisingly Osweiler didn’t turn the ball over and reached his 3X goal. What made things even better, was those who added the Texans QB to their lineups saved Draftkings salary and got more production than R.Willson (16.66), Roethlisberger (14.88), Eli Manning (15.06) and Matt Stafford (9.70)
  • I nailed the sleeper pick of Dolphins RB2 Damion Williams out producing Jay Ajayi
  • I talked about Zach Zenner being a favorite of mine; I thought it would be hard for him to crack his 3X his goal of 13.5 points. He just hit it at 14.8
  • “Kenny Stills 3X goal of 11.3 points could be achieved with just one big catch” – He did have a big 36-yard grab, but it was his five receptions for 82 yards that got the job done.
  • I said I liked Davante Adams to shine, which he did. He didn’t have a Randal Cobb stat line, but Adams was still great with eight receptions 125 yards (+ bonus) and a touchdown.
  • Sleeper TE pick Will Tye from the Giants hit his 3X goal with 4 receptions for 66 yards.
  • Sleeper TE Mychal Rivera had 4 receptions for 31 yards. His 3X goal was 7.5 points; he got 7.1 – close enough, I counting it. 
  • Random Prediction: Packers/Giants would be the highest scoring game of the week despite the Vegas lines.

Predictions I Got Wrong

  • I didn’t think Le’Veon Bell was worth spending $10,300 Draftkings bucks on and I didn’t think he’d reach his 3X goal of 30.9 points.
  • I talked about how Thomas Rawls had a great matchup, but I mentioned he had the potential to burn people. There were hints that I like him, but I got to mark this as a pick I missed.
  • Anquan Boldin. Dude was a mess.
  • I said I liked DeAndre Hopkins and thought he’d hit is 3X goal. Nuk came very close. I should get half point for this prediction.

DraftKings Quarterback 3x Goals

TMNameSalary3X GoalAvg PPR
Aaron Rodgers820024.626.029
Tom Brady760022.822.963
Matt Ryan70002123.404
Russell Wilson690020.718.16
Ben Roethlisberger650019.519.603
Dak Prescott60001818.805
Alex Smith540016.215.985
Brock Osweiler50001512.763

Dak Prescott FantasyThis week features two AFC playoff games with over/under lines of 44.5 and two NFC games (both in domes) with over/under lines in the 50’s. Keep that in mind when picking your flex player.

Last week I was willing to take a shot with a cheaper QB to free up money to spend on my WR’s. This week I feel it would be foolish to gamble with such an approach. I want nothing to do with Osweiler, Alex Smith and I’m not too crazy about Ben Roethlisberger either.

The best bargain of the week, in my opinion, is Dak Prescott from the Dallas Cowboys. It really kills me to say that being an Eagles fan, but you got to bet with your head, not with your heart. The Cowboys are rested and should be able to lean on their running game to help move the chains. I expect a balanced gameplan, one that will keep Packers defenders always guessing. The Cowboys haven’t been conservative with their QB rookie sensation, so why would they stop now. I expect Dak Prescott to easily hit his 3x Goal.

DraftKings Running Back 3X Goal

TMNameSalary3X GoalAvg PPR
Le’Veon Bell1050031.528.523
Ezekiel Elliott850025.523.16
Thomas Rawls690020.710.47
Devonta Freeman590017.718.194
LeGarrette Blount580017.415.369
Lamar Miller560016.814.493
Ty Montgomery530015.99.644
Spencer Ware520015.614.486
Tevin Coleman450013.514.931
Christine Michael430012.99.106
C.J. Prosise420012.610.167
Dion Lewis390011.77.814
Alex Collins350010.53.358
James White340010.210.106
Charcandrick West340010.26.273
Alfred Blue33009.94.227
DeAngelo Williams32009.69.391
Aaron Ripkowski32009.63.282
James Develin300090.3
Jonathan Grimes300093.264
Brandon Bolden300090.279
[the_ad id=”63198″]Most of my predictions last week were bang on, but I was wrong about Le’Veon Bell. I still don’t feel he was worth the price, but nevertheless, he showed up big. So am I on the bandwagon? Do I think he continues running over teams with his impressive 5.8 yards per carry average? Or do I stick to the penny-pinching conservative approach?

Bell’s 3x goal is 31.5 points, which is slightly higher than last week. The Chiefs also only allowed ten rushing touchdowns all season, ranking them tied for 4th in the NFL. Lastly, Kansas City is rested and playing at home, something that hasn’t happened in the playoffs since 2011. To summarize… No, I don’t think Bell hit’s his 3X goal of 31.5 points. He’ll have a solid game, but I believe he falls short, getting around 25 points.

LeGarrette Blount seems to be an excellent bargain this week against the Texans. With a 16 point spread, the Pat’s will likely give Blount more than a few opportunities to score, that along with most of the 4th quarter to run over a tired Houston bunch.

Christine Michael is very interesting. If you remember, his energy really lit a fire under the team when he came into the game. It was, at least the way I remember it, when the Packers really started to pull away from the Giants. His 3x Goal is 12.9 points. This prediction really depends on Ty Montgomery. The injury that sidelined him for a portion of Sunday’s second half was to his ankle.

TD vulture threat: Charcandrick West. He is the Damien Williams of this week

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DraftKings Wide Receivers 3X Goal

TMNameSalary3X GoalAvg PPR
Antonio Brown960028.821.981
Julio Jones840025.218.727
Doug Baldwin810024.317.271
Jordy Nelson740022.219
Davante Adams70002117.012
Julian Edelman680020.414.894
Dez Bryant660019.814.615
DeAndre Hopkins580017.413.006
Randall Cobb570017.113.493
Tyreek Hill550016.513.625
Cole Beasley50001511.813
Malcolm Mitchell470014.16.864
Taylor Gabriel440013.210.769
Jeremy Maclin430012.99.125
Paul Richardson410012.34.381
Mohamed Sanu4000129.363
Chris Hogan390011.79.06
Eli Rogers390011.79.421
Geronimo Allison390011.74.182
Michael Floyd380011.47.92
Will Fuller V360010.89.46
Danny Amendola350010.55.858
Aldrick Robinson340010.24.206
Jermaine Kearse33009.95.965
Brice Butler32009.63.494
Terrance Williams31009.37.9
Matthew Slater30009-0.038
Keith Mumphery300091.408
Wendall Williams300093.833
Devin Hester30009-0.077
Eric Weems300090
Nick Williams300095.45
Justin Hardy300094.081
Tanner McEvoy300092.448
Kasen Williams300090
Darrius Heyward-Bey300093.617
Cobi Hamilton300094.533
Albert Wilson300095.119
Chris Conley300096.063
Sammie Coates300095.393
De’Anthony Thomas300091.117
Demarcus Robinson300090
Demarcus Ayers300096.733
Trevor Davis300090.945
Lucky Whitehead300091
Jeff Janis300092.124

Tyreek HillJordy Nelson’s injury status changes the Packers WR value immensely. I think there’s some real value in Cobb and Adams again if Jordy’s out. Overall, I have a bad feeling about the big names and their 3X goals this weekend. Everyone should be productive, but as we insert four rested teams with strong defenses, I think building your lineup around some of the elite WR talents this week may burn you.

I like value picks this week like Randall Cobb, Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel, Jeremy Maclin and Chris Hogan. All should reach their 3x goal and safe you some DFS dollars in the process.

DraftKings Tight Ends 3x Goals

TMNameSalary3X GoalAvg PPR
Travis Kelce610018.315.063
Jimmy Graham490014.712.176
Martellus Bennett40001211.069
Jared Cook390011.77.773
Ladarius Green380011.49.567
C.J. Fiedorowicz360010.88.713
Jason Witten350010.59.769
Austin Hooper29008.74.579
Jesse James28008.45.435
Ryan Griffin26007.86.535
Matt Lengel25007.51.7
Stephen Anderson25007.51.879
Luke Willson25007.53.442
Levine Toilolo25007.53.213
D.J. Tialavea25007.53.55
Brandon Williams25007.50.329
Tyler Ott25007.50
Nick Vannett25007.50.689
Joshua Perkins25007.51.65
David Johnson25007.51
James Winchester25007.50

Last week’s Tight End group really disappointed daily fantasy owners, but I feel this week should correct itself. As I write this, I’m still playing around with some lineups for the weekend’s games, but as of now, I look to be making my Flex spot a Tight End.

I like Martellus Bennett against the Patriots despite the fact the last time these teams played (without Tom Brady) Gronk and Bennett had a combine 4 targets and that a Tight End hasn’t scored against the Texans since week 11 (Hunter Henry). Bennett has a touchdown in each of his last two games, and I feel he should perform well despite the poor Draftkings opponent ranking.

Sleeper pick: I like Austin Hooper from the Falcons. He’s low on the Seahawks defensive priority list; I think he scores and hits his modest 3X goal of 8.7 points.

 

Good Luck this week

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