DraftKings Picks Week 9
It is a new week and a new month, how are you? I was tilting, and now I am better. Playing in GPP tournaments is about knowing the statistics, but it is also about luck. The more people in the tournament (like the 207.2K) that play the milli maker, the more luck you need. It, of course, helps to have enough money to enter the maximum, but luck still needs to be on your side.
Entering double-ups and multipliers help sustain your bank role, but even then, try to go for the single-entry tournaments with a smaller entry pool. You are still competing with the sharks, but your chances (and luck) improve.
But most importantly, trust your gut once you have done all the research. Last week’s milli maker winner combined chalk with outliers. The Saints’ defense and Tyler Conklin were both below two percent drafted. Then he went for tony Pollard, who was over fifty percent drafted (!!), and the Miami correlation, which was above twenty percent drafted. Look at the stats, trust yourself, and here we go.
Week 8 Milli Maker Winner
- QB Tua Tagovailoa 32.18 points, 21.15% Drafted, Salary $6200
- RB Alvin Kamara, 42.80 points, 12.50% Drafted, Salary $7100
- RB Tony Pollard, 36.70 Points, 50.92% Drafted, Salary $6100
- WR Tyreek Hill, 34.50 Points, 28.76% Drafted, Salary $8500
- WR Jaylen Waddle, 33.60 Points, 23.43% Drafted, Salary $6700
- WR Garrett Wilson, 20.50 Points, 7.43% Drafted, Salary $4200
- TE Tyler Conklin, 25.90 Points, 1.56% Drafted, Salary $3200
- FLEX DJ Moore, 30.50 Points, 27.62% Drafted, Salary $5300
- DST Saints, 16.00 Points, 0.87% Drafted, Salary $2700
There are only 10 teams on this week’s main slate, with six teams on a bye week. Four games have an implied total of 49.5, and only one has a double-digit victory margin.
Kyler Murray, Arizona v Seattle Seahawks, $7400, 49.5 o/u, Cardinals -2
Murray is not the highest coming in just under Josh Allen. This slate will have no Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes. So, viola. This game predicts to be a shoot-out. The Seahawks are mid-range against the quarterback yielding 21.2 fantasy points per game.
The best stack here is DeAndre Hopkins, $7900, who has seen 13 and 14 targets his two games back and has surpassed 100 receiving yards in both games.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals, $5800, 49.5 o/u, Cards -2
People are reluctant to play Smith for some reason, and his DK price indicates that. This season Smith has 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has a 72.7 completion rate and one rushing touchdown.
The Cardinals are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (24.4) and allowed 14 passing touchdowns.
Noah Fant’s $2900 is a good stacking option as the Cardinals are giving up the second most fantasy points to the tight end position (12.5).
Monitor Fant’s status was limited Wednesday with a hamstring.
Fun fact the Seahawks are giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (14.9)
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars v Las Vegas Raiders, $5200, 49.5 o/u, Raiders -1.5
Lawrence was pretty bad last week in London against the Denver Broncos. Here is the best matchup to wash those feelings away.
Remember last week? This Raiders team allowed Andy Dalton to throw for 229 yards and two touchdowns. They are giving up the eighth-most passing yards per game and have given up touchdowns to 3 interceptions. The Raiders also allow the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback (25.8).
If you are going for value, Lawrence is a good option. And to get some leverage, think of stacking him with Travis Etienne Jr, whose DK price is a manageable $6300.
Austin Ekeler Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons, $8800, 49.5 o/u, Chargers -3
Ekeler will be the chalkiest chalk of chalk, but Ekeler has been on a mission. In his last four games, he has amassed 36.7, 24.3, 38.9, and 34.9 DK fantasy points. And now he gets the Atlanta Falcons, who gave up 118 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to D’Onta Foreman.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions, $7400, 49.5 o/u, Packers -3.5
Jones will most likely come in chalky for this game. The Lions are giving up the third most fantasy points per game to the running back position (24.1) and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and 169 receiving yards.
If you want to get a little different in your GPP lineup, consider AJ Dillion, who is coming in at $5700.
Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots $5200, 40.5 o/u, Patriots -5
Monitor the status of Jonathan Taylor before inserting Jackson if Taylor is still hobbled by the ankle injury put in Jackson. At his price point, he needs 18.2 fantasy points to pay it off.
Against Denver and Jacksonville, he had double-digit carries and finished with 9.1 and 18.1 fantasy points.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks, $7900, 49.5 o/u, Cards -2
The targets and the production are too large to pass up (see above). Hopkins can also be played without Murray.
Suppose you want to get weird? Think of stacking Hopkins with Zac Ertz for $5100. It will cost you as Ertz is the highest tight-end option on the main slate. But it will differentiate you from the crowd in this game.
Terry McLaurin, Washington v Minnesota, $5900, 43.5 o/u, Vikings -3.5
McLaurin does not have the best matchup, but the Vikings can be had. They are allowing an average of 198.7 passing yards a game and have given up an average of 22 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
Taylor Heinicke has eyes for McLaurin. McLaurin has had eight targets in his last two games with Heinicke.
There is a chance Jahan Dotson is back. If Dotson returns, downgrade expectations only slightly.
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons, $5100, 49.5 o/u, Chargers -3
The Chargers at Atlanta is the second game on the slate I am targeting. Keenan Allen is reportedly back, although there were talks of a setback with his hamstring. Nevertheless, Mike Williams is out.
Palmer also had a hamstring problem but practiced fully. Also, the Falcons are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (29.5).
But what is more important is that fantasy-friendly Austin Ekeler reported during their bye week that he is adding Palmer to his fantasy team. Good enough.
GOOD LUCK! Play wisely.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.