Welcome to Week 15. It isn’t over until it is over. If you are out of your season-long leagues, DFS is your refuge. Remember, there are Saturday games this week if you want to play ‘extra’ GPP.
There are only 10 games on the main slate. There are no games with an implied total of over 50, and the game with the highest implied total is a little gross, Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans, 49.5 o/u, with the Chiefs a 14-point favorite. The Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears has a 48.5 o/u with the Eagles a nine-point favorite, and the Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars has a 47.5 o/u with the Cowboys a four-point favorite.
Here is Week 14 $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire DraftKings Winner
- QB Trevor Lawrence, 36.42 fantasy points, Salary $5700, Draft 2.45%
- RB Derrick Henry, 25.50 fantasy points, Salary of $7900, Draft 21.26 %
- RB Miles Sanders, 31.50 fantasy points, Salary $6200, Draft 7.38%
- WR Justin Jefferson, 36.30 fantasy points, Salary $9000, Draft 27.15%
- WR Jerry Jeudy, 33.30 fantasy points, Salary $5400, Draft 11.31%
- WR Zay Jones, 21.70 fantasy points, Salary $4700, Draft 6.03%
- TE Evan Engram, 42.40 fantasy points, Salary $3300, Draft 3.60%
- FLEX Jerick McKinnon, 35.40 fantasy points, Salary $4600, Draft 2.03%
- DST 49ers, 10 fantasy points, Salary $3200, Draft 6.57%
Justin Herbert v Tennessee Titans, $7200, PFF projected draft 7.6%
The Tennessee Titans are giving up the second most DraftKings fantasy points to the quarterback position (23.8). They have surrendered the second-most touchdowns to the quarterback (25) and allowed Trevor Lawrence to pass for 368 yards and three touchdowns last week.
Herbert has thrown for 367 and 335 yards in his last two games, with one touchdown in each game. He had 51 passing attempts and 47 passing attempts. With all his weapons back, Herbert should have no problem shredding the Titans’ secondary.
Mike White v Detroit Lions, $5400, PFF projected draft 3.7%
The Jets have averaged 44.7 passing attempts per game in the last three weeks. White has 21 red zone attempts and is averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. The main thing is to monitor his physical condition. If he plays and his draft status stays low, White can break the slate against a porous Lions defense.
The Detroit Lions are giving up the most DraftKings fantasy points to the quarterback position (25.4).
**Update: Mike White has been ruled out. Zach Wilson is going to start.
Desmond Ridder @ Atlanta Falcons, $5200, PFF projected draft 3.7%
This will be Ridder’s first start. The Saints are mid-range in that they have given up an average of 17.5 DraftKings fantasy points to the quarterback position. They have also allowed three rushing touchdowns to the position.
The Falcons rank 28th in total offense and 31st in passing play percentage (43.97%). Their 23.1 passing attempts per game is also 31st in the league. It is unlikely that Arthur Smith will suddenly allow the rookie to just chuck the ball. It is the potential of Ridder’s rushing ability that raises his floor. In college, he rushed for 2180 yards in his four-year career.
If Ridder can be serviceable in the limited passing game and adds a run game, he can outplay his value.
Isiah Pacheco @ Houston Texans, $5900, PFF projected draft 14.8%
On a pass-first team, Pacheco is averaging 14.2 rushing attempts per game. He also has 1.7 yards after contact that raises his floor considerably against a Texans team that all but folds for the running back position.
The Texans are pretty good against the pass. They are pretty bad against the run. So far this season, they have allowed a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns and 1834 rushing yards, also a league-high. They are surrendering 30.8 DraftKings fantasy points to the running back position.
Zonovan Knight v Detroit Lions, $5300, PFF projected draft 11.8%
The Lions are tied for third in the most rushing touchdowns surrendered this season (13).
Last week Knight was on the field for 47% of the offensive snaps. He averages 5.3 yards per carry and has nine red zone touches in three games.
Pierre Strong Jr. @ Las Vegas Raiders, $4000, PFF no projections
Playing Strong depends on the availability of both Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris.
Last week Strong was pressed into duty and responded with five carries for 70 yards and a touchdown. He also was targeted twice for two receptions and 20 receiving yards.
Keenan Allen v Tennessee Titans, $6800, PFF projected draft 12.7%
The Titans surrender an average of 43.4 DraftKings points to the wide receiver position.
They allow 28% of their fantasy totals to come from the slot position (12.8 fantasy points per game. Allen spends 54.8% of his snaps in the slot position. He has. 19.4% target share and a 26.3% target rate. Since returning from injury, in his last two games, he has been targeted 14 times in each game.
Chris Moore v Kansas City Chiefs, $4200, PFF projected draft 14.5%
Will Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins play? Will it matter? The Chiefs are allowing the fourth-most DraftKings fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (40.3)
Without Cooks and Collins last week, Moore was on the receiving end of 11 targets (his previous high was seven) with 10 receptions and 124 yards. With the Texans expected to play from behind, Moore should again lead the Texans with targets and production against a Chiefs secondary that is giving up passing yards.
Elijah Moore v Detroit Lions, $3600, PFF projected draft 2.8%
The Lions are giving up the third-most DraftKings fantasy points to the wide receiver position (42.8).
The Lions are getting shredded by the slot receiver; 55% of their receiving fantasy points come from the slot position. Last week against Buffalo, Moore was on the field for 80.8% of the offensive snaps and ran 47 routes with 10 targets. Moore has a 29.7% slot rate (157 snaps).
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.