Welcome to Week 10 of the NFL. How are you doing? Keeping a healthy (and profitable) blend of GPP and Cash tournaments?
This week will be similar to last, as there are only 10 games on the main slate. The Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and New York Jets are all on a bye this week. The Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers have the Sunday Night game. And Washington plays the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.
Again, listed is the winning lineup for the DraftKings Milli Maker. Stacking the Chicago vs. Miami game was his path to victory, and of course, Joe Mixon, the slate breaker with his five touchdowns and 58.10 DraftKings fantasy points.
Week 9 DraftKings Milli Maker Winner
- QB Justin Fields, 45.72 fantasy points, $5300 Salary, 14.15% drafted
- RB Joe Mixon, 58.10 fantasy points, $6500 salary, 12.22% drafted
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, 16.00 fantasy points, $6200 salary, 40.49% drafted
- WR Tyreek Hill, 30.30 fantasy points, $8500 salary, 14.93% drafted
- WR Christian Kirk, 21.60 fantasy points, $5500 salary, 10.03% drafted
- WR Darnell Mooney, 17.50 fantasy points, $4700 salary, 8.46% drafted
- TE Cole Kmet, 22.00 fantasy points, $3000 salary, 1.45% drafted
- FLEX Kenneth Walker III, 30.90 fantasy points, $6200 salary, 13.64% drafted
- DST Patriots, 26.00 fantasy points, $4100 salary, 10.17% drafted
Remember, in GPP; It is all about finding the right tournament for you. The larger the field, the more entries usually equal more sharks, and the prize pool is weighted towards the top. For variance (and the sake of your pocketbook), look for tournaments with single- or three-times entry. DraftKings also routinely hosts Free contests where you can try out your lineups without spending money.
This week two of the free entries are, $5K Draft Time Matchups presented by Miller Lite and $5K Hulu + Live Football Extravaganza.
Tua Tagovailoa v Cleveland Browns, $6700
This game has a 49 implied total, with the Dolphins being a -3.5 favorite. The Dolphins are expected to get four touchdowns.
Tagovailoa has had two consecutive games with 300+ passing yards. And he has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the receiving end of those passes.
The good news is that some will be off Tagovailoa because of the perceived “bad” matchup.
Just remember, the Browns are getting this ‘cred’ after going against the quarterbacks of the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals (without Ja’Marr Chase), and the Atlanta Falcons in their last three games.
Justin Fields v Detroit Lions, $6500
Fields is the play absolutely everyone will be making, especially in cash games. That usually means a fade in GPP, but Fields’ upside may be too high to fade in this one.
You aren’t chasing the points here (sort of) but also going to a smash matchup. The Lions play a man-heavy defense that lacks interior pressure. That usually favors running quarterbacks.
Fields has a 58% throw rate against man coverage compared to 42% against the zone. So, you are getting his run game and a higher ceiling on his passing game.
Jacoby Brissett @ Miami Dolphins, $5400
The Browns are 26th in passing rate. They have Nick Chubb. But they also have Amari Cooper and Donavan Peoples-Jones. Brissett might be a little hard to swallow but remember, GPP is all about zigging when everyone else zags.
If you believe the Dolphins will score points, the Browns must keep up. That will necessitate throwing the ball. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass.
Also consider Trevor Lawrence @ Kansas City, Lawrence $5400
Saquon Barkley v Houston Texans $8600
Barkley is the mouth-watering, oh my goodness, is the real smash play of the week. So chalkiest of chalk.
Barkley is averaging 97.4 rushing yards per game, the third most in the NFL. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards (1234) and touchdowns (12) to the running back position.
Barkley is hella expensive, but he should be worth it.
Note to self, Aaron Rodgers was in absolute smash play last week and fizzled. So, there is no such thing as a sure thing. But this comes close.
Jeff Wilson v Cleveland Browns, $5500
Wilson was in a timeshare with Raheem Mostert last week. Wilson had nine carries for 51 yards and three receptions on three targets for 21 yards. That includes his 10-yard touchdown reception.
Wilson had the same carries as Mostert and one more target.
The implied game script plays into the Dolphins’ strength. Run the ball to set up the passing game. The downside is the timeshare between Mostert and Wilson. But Wilson was coming in $600 cheaper and was more productive last week.
Jaylen Warren v New Orleans Saints, $4900
Talk about differentiating yourself. Najee Harris has been a disappointment in the fantasy world. Head coach Mike Tomlin has talked about getting Warren more involved.
Warren is averaging 5.9 yards per touch and has a +8.2 EPA.
The Saints are coming off a Monday Night Football Game where they allowed Kenyan Drake to rush for 93 yards and two touchdowns. They also gave up 82 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson.
Also, consider Jamaal Williams @ Chicago Bears; Williams $5900
Jaylen Waddle v Cleveland Browns, $7600
Stacking Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill will cost you 31.6% of your lineup salary. For $1500 less, you can pivot down to Waddle.
The Dolphins pass at the eighth-highest rate. Being second to Hill in this passing tunnel includes having a 22.8% target share, 25.3% target rate, and a 27.9% air yards share. It also includes having 308 yards after the catch (fourth-best in the league).
Ahem, Hill is second-best in yards after the catch with 336.
Chris Olave @ Pittsburgh Steelers, $6800
This isn’t that complicated. The Steelers are giving up the most DraftKings points on average (48.1) to the wide receiver position. They have allowed 1703 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns to the position.
Olave is on the receiving end of 29.4% of the targets and averages 14.6 fantasy points per game (PPR format). Against the Baltimore Ravens last week, he led the team in targets (9), catches (6), and receiving yards (71).
The lower implied point total (40) will keep people off this game.
Jerry Jeudy @ Tennessee Titans, $5700
Speaking of gross, Russell Wilson has not inspired confidence on the field or with his Subway commercials. Jeudy, however, is making a go at it. Jeudy is the only Broncos wide receiver with multiple touchdowns, and that’s only three. But he has been targeted seven or more times in the last four games, including 11 targets in Week7.
The Titans did allow JuJu Smith-Schuster to get 88 receiving yards and Mecole Hardman to get 79 receiving yards and a touchdown last week.
Caveat tight end Greg Dulcich is leading the team in aDOT. And Travis Kelce crushed the Titans last week with 106 receiving yards.
I like Jeudy, but I wouldn’t be mad at you for stacking Dulcich in this one. Or playing him solo, my Wilson confidence isn’t quite there yet.
Also, consider Chase Claypool v Detroit Lions, Claypool $4800.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.