TNF: Eagles vs. Packers
The NFL season is entering Week 4 and that means another Showdown Slate Thursday night on DraftKings. For those newer to DraftKings Showdown contests, as always make sure you check out some general strategy for Showdown contests in my article from Week 1. For this piece, I will show you the best plays and break down this particular matchup between the Eagles and Packers. Hopefully, this one is more thrilling than last week’s affair. But before the breakdown will we also recap the winning lineup from the last week’s NFL Showdown $20K Dimeback and see what conclusions for roster construction we can use as we progress for Week 4.
The DraftKings Showdown Recap
The best practice is to always approach the captain spot with a receiver or receiving running back which is what we have seen now for three straight weeks. This user played Leonard Fournette in the captain spot so that final long run he had really helped him jump up the board. The reason this lineup ended up winning was that it included Adam Humphries at just 5% ownership. To win GPPs you have to make bold statements which are not only made by the players you roster but by the players, you fade. The main takeaway here is that your bolder plays do not always to fill in the captain’s spot. Ultimately whichever player you think will score the most points should be rostered there for maximum point totals.
This lineup also featured more Jaguars than Titans which goes back to the idea of stuffing the majority of players from the team you think will win into your lineup. Another big takeaway: Two quarterbacks were rostered along with the Jaguars defense. Though it’s recommended to shy away from two quarterbacks traditionally in GPPs, in this case, it worked because they were both cheap; thus they did not ruin the remaining spots. We shall keep that in mind for the next time we get two cheap quarterbacks for Showdown.
Thursday Night Preview
Aaron Rodgers – $10,800, Carson Wentz– $10,000
This game screams like a get right game for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing attack. The Eagles are allowing an average of 310 passing yards and three passing touchdowns per game on the road this season. Via NBC Sports Rodgers said “It’s time for us to do our part on offense. Moving forward, we’re going to play a stretch of really good football teams. At some point, we can’t expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been, but at some point, the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays.”
Rodgers has yet to score more than 15 fantasy points this season throwing for two touchdowns just once and a high of 235 yards. Rodgers in his career is better at home posting a 107.7 passer rating. He is going to put a solid stat line in this game against the Eagles. As for Wentz, do not expect as much from him even if the Eagles are trailing. The Packers’ defense is much improved and has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback through the first three weeks of the season. They also play better at home. In 2018 under defensive coordinator Mike Pettine they allowed the eighth fewest passing yards at home and 16th fewest passing touchdowns. With no DeSean Jackson and a possibly banged up Alshon Jeffery on a short week, it might be too much to overcome for Wentz to be a fantasy star.
Aaron Jones – $9,000, Miles Sanders – $6,200, Jamaal Williams – $5,000, Jordan Howard – $4,600, Darren Sproles – $2,800
The running back position is where things start to get interesting. For the Packers Williams out-snapped Jones 61.4% to 38.6% last week. Jones saw more overall touches and the touchdowns, but coach Matt LaFleur was honest when he told the media earlier in the week he wanted to get Williams more involved. Given the matchup against the stingy Eagles run defense, you cannot justify spending $4,000 more salary on Jones when Williams could easily come away with more receptions/touchdown equity. If you play a Packers’ running back in the bad matchup play Williams.
As for the Eagles, this backfield really comes down to Sanders and Sproles. After two fumbles the week prior I think Sanders is the real x-factor to break out in this game. Sanders flashed his receiving ability last week and is by far the most explosive running back on the Eagles. It should be pointed out right from the start he had 180 all-purpose yards against the Detroit Lions. However, he fumbled and lost touches to Sproles in Week 3. People may be afraid to play him because perhaps he is in the coach’s doghouse. Not the case.
Sanders on Tuesday said, “It means a lot not just keeping me out, benching me, and letting my confidence lower and really beating myself up mentally,” said Sanders following Tuesday’s practice. “It feels good to have them trust me. It’s just going to allow me to keep growing and keep balling and keep putting my best out on the field.“I’ve been through a lot since Penn State. I’ve been through adversity. I’ve been through times like this so I know what it takes to keep my mental right and keep working.” Check out this full article here for more of the coaches talk on Sanders. They believe in the rookie.
He will have as something to prove on Thursday night. The matchup also favors the pass-catching back as the Packers have allowed the most receptions, most targets, and third-most receiving yards to running backs through three weeks. The Packers also have the 25th-ranked run defense. As long as Howard does not get the chance to vulture goalline touchdowns it should be Sanders seeing the majority of touches as the Eagles play catch up. Green Bay ranks third in points scored in the first quarter. Philadelphia ranks fourth to last.
Davante Adams – $11,000, Alshon Jeffery – $8,200, Nelson Agholor – $7,800, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – $7,600, Geronimo Allison – $5,600, Mack Hollins– $3,200, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside– $1,800, Jake Kumerow – $200
As of right now, the captain spot should be Davante Adams. If Rodgers throws for 300 and three touchdowns Adams will have a huge day. The last time Rodgers reached that stat total Adams had nine receptions for 140 yards and a score. The Eagles have struggled to stop perimeter wide receivers dating back to last season. Currently, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position in 2019. Jeffery has to be a fade against Jaire Alexander considering he is also severely banged up. Valdes-Scantling is interesting as another deep threat so he is viable as a selection, especially over Allison who will mainly man the slot. Agholor will probably be pretty chalky as he was last week, so he is the big fade for me. That game he had last week was the tale of two halves and inconsistency has been Agholor’s biggest knock. Time to get off the hype train before it comes totally crashing down. That leaves Hollins as the Eagles’ receiver to target. He’s cheap enough to get exposure to the Eagles’ downfield passing offense as he will be filling that role with DeSean Jackson out. He saw seven targets to Agholor’s 11 targets last week and ran the same amount of routes (42).
Zach Ertz – $9,200, Jimmy Graham – $4,400, Dallas Goedert – $1,000, Marcedes Lewis – $1,000, Robert Tonyan – $200
Zach Ertz is most likely going to see the majority of targets in this game and is probably the only player I could think that could challenge Adams for the captain’s slot. The matchup for Ertz is not great as the Packers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end so far in 2019. However, they have really yet to have been tested against a true tight end threat.
Tonyan is also an extremely interesting punt play if Graham misses. Graham is battling a litany of injuries, including a lingering finger issue from training camp and groin and quad injuries. He has three catches for 30 yards and hasn’t made a catch since Week 1. Hell, even if Graham plays Tonyan’s run after the catch ability makes him a player that can rack up yardage to immediately return on his bottom-barrel salary price tag. It’s time for Tonyan. Worth noting he is coming off a career-high in targets (3)
Mason Crosby – $3,600, Jake Elliott – $3,600, Packers DST – $4,800, Eagles DST – $3,200
The play here has to be the Packers DST plain and simple. They have scored double-digit fantasy points for three straight weeks. The Eagles also rank third-highest in the NFL in giveaways on the road. We saw plenty of fumbles last week. If you had to pick a kicker to roster go with Crosby. He is two for three on field goals at home this season with six extra points made.