DraftKings Chalk, Pivots & Punts: Week 15
Welcome to NFL Week 15 gang! Let’s recap what we’re doing here. This is a weekly piece on Daily Fantasy plays for Draft Kings with a focus on GPPs, in particular, the main slate. The articles will indicate who I think will be the chalk plays, who some pivots or contrarian plays are to get off the chalk, and some punt plays that could either save on salary or are just so far below the radar they might be tournament winning plays if all goes well. Instead of saying “Player A” is chalk, pivot to “Player B,” there will be a chart showing my data for the match-ups with the chalk/pivots/punts listed after that. In this article, pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be stacking.
Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and spread as of the time of writing. Without further ado, let’s have a look at the Sunday main slate.
Above is the Vegas implied totals and lines for each game, as well as match-up data I have compiled for pace, opponent fantasy points allowed, and raw Yards & TD data vs. the positions we are looking at for building our DFS rosters. Red is bad, orange is beware, yellow is more neutral, and green is good. The dark green shade is better than good. Here is a link to the match-up data you can copy/paste into your own spreadsheet and manipulate.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Websites I use to research are:
- Daily Roto for Snaps, Targets, Carries, and Red Zone Opportunities (Promo code: “grid10” Save 10%)
- The Quant Edge for WR/CB Match-Up Data (Promo code: “gridironexperts” Save 10%)
- Pro Football Focus for WR/CB and OL/DL Match-Up Data
- Twitter for beat writer coverage for each team. Click on the link to go to a team by team list.
Plus I have a spreadsheet of my own that I use to keep track of defensive points by position (ie. WR1, WR2, Slot, etc) and multi-TD games allowed.
Now, let’s dig into each game and see what the great chalk is, where to pivot, and if there are any good punts on the slate. Games are listed in order of Vegas implied point totals since the higher scoring games are where we tend to focus our attention first when constructing rosters.
New England Patriots (28.5/-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (25.5/+3) 
Without the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, and Chargers on the slate, this is the only game above an implied 50 point total so you can expect a ton of ownership to come out of this game. This game will also be popular for being the “late hammer.” The Steelers are going to have a hard time covering Rob Gronkowski ($5800) this week after failing to cover Jared Cook and his understudies last week. They will focus on it though, which could open opportunities for the WRs here. Julian Edelman ($7200) has an opportunity to exploit the interior of the Steelers defense the way Keenan Allen did a couple of weeks ago if Pittsburgh decides to try and take Gronk away. Josh Gordon ($6400) has been a “Steady Eddie” scoring 12 or 14 points twice each in the last four weeks, catching only 1 TD. His targets range from 3 to 12 during this span, and with the Steelers being so weak in the middle of the defense, he doesn’t seem to fit the bill for a good play, but could be a nice way to pivot off the chalk in case we get a Patriots game where the guy we least expect has the big game.
Tom Brady at $5900 is pretty good value for the slate. The Steelers don’t let you run on them, so if the Patriots do well, it will be on Brady to lead them. Brady’s last couple of visits to Heinz Field have not been fruitful for him, passing for a combined 520 yards and 3 TDs. This game will have a bit of a playoff atmosphere as the Patriots are playing to maintain the #2 seed in the playoffs, which comes with a first-round bye and home field the following week. The Steelers at home present a tough match-up on the ground, and for RBs in general. Only Christian McCaffrey has had a good game up there. Teams aren’t targeting their RBs much in Pittsburgh either, so all of the Pats backs are off the table for me this week.
The Patriots are exploitable with RBs and TEs for the most part, so we’ll want to keep an eye on whether James Conner ($7400) is available for the Steelers this week. If so, he’s going to be in a really good spot here, assuming he gets his usual workload. If Conner sits, then Jaylen Samuels ($5200) is the better of the remaining two Steeler RBs based on his targets in the passing game keeping his value up. However, Stevan Ridley ($3500) has an ax to grind with New England and would love to fulfill the revenge narrative here. Vance McDonald ($3900) was in a good match-up last week but didn’t do much with it. I used him in a lot of line-ups, so I’m going to be gun-shy about going back to him here. However, this is a home game where he scored 14 against the Panthers defense that struggles to stop TEs. He’s a bit of a value play, but I won’t have him toward the top of my player pool again this week. Out wide, I would expect the Pats to match body types at WR and put Gilmore on JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8000), then double team Antonio Brown ($8500). The match-up chart shows the Pats allow more points to the WR1 than any other WR so that Brown might be the better option at WR in this game.
Dallas Cowboys (22.0/+3) at Indianapolis Colts (25.0/-3) 
Dallas is in position to clinch a playoff spot with a win here. That’s no easy chore coming into the Indy fast track though. This game has a decently high implied total and a close spread, so we have plenty to chew on here. Ezekiel Elliott ($9000) has scored 25 DK points in 5 straight weeks and will be the centerpiece of the offensive game-plan. He’s a top 2 option overall on this slate, which means he’ll be chalk – but good chalk. Zeke is no longer just a ground and pound back with limited pass game involvement. His targets have climbed to rival that of anyone else on the team, and they are designed targets which means they will persist. Over the last four weeks, only Cooper’s 35 targets are higher than Zeke’s 33. Dak Prescott ($5500) is a nice, lower price pivot option at QB this week. Indy is going to run a lot of plays because that’s what they do (they are #1 in overall pace of play & 2nd in plays per game at home), and they could score on enough of their possessions to force the Cowboys into trading scores. Indy will be focused on Zeke first, allowing Dak to make some plays. Amari Cooper ($7500) was a sneaky play last week but will not get overlooked here. The Colts have been a pretty solid defense overall, but you have to start the playmakers in these type of match-ups, which is what Cooper has been since arriving in Dallas. With his huge game last week, he’s going to get extra attention from the field and could be chalky.
Dallas doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses on defense right now. The match-up chart shows TE is the best bet to attack them with, but we need to keep in mind that is skewed by a 40 point game by Zach Ertz. This will likely be a game where Andrew Luck ($6400) spreads the ball around. Frank Reich is still going to do his best to scheme his most dynamic weapons open with T.Y. Hilton ($6800) and Eric Ebron ($5900). These are the top plays from this offense, but there are a couple of lower key guys worth thinking about as roster constructions go along and we’re looking for value plays. Dontrelle Inman ($3800) has taken over the #2 WR role in this offense and should run most of his routes away from Byron Jones who is cemented onto the left side of the offense (RCB). Dallas doesn’t use their best corner (Jones) to shadow, so all of the Colts will get opportunities to escape his coverage. Inman was seeing 4-6 targets per game prior to missing last week, but that could spike this week if Dallas frequently doubles up on Hilton. Inman is second on the Colts in Air Yards over those four weeks and has a similar aDOT to Hilton during that span. Another guy who is not ready to go into line-ups yet, but is worth monitoring to see if his role continues to expand is Zach Pascal ($3200). He seems to be taking over the third WR role in this offense, seeing over 50% snap share the last two games and 6 targets last week, one of which he converted into a TD. Luck loves his TEs, so Ebron is a good play. The Colts just released Eric Swoope clearing the way for Moe Allie-Cox ($2500) to be a TD dependent/min-price option this week if you’re looking to completely punt at TE. The Cowboys have fared well against opponent rushing attacks this year, and Indy doesn’t use a horse-back, making this backfield low on the priority list.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19.5/+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens (27.0/-7.5) [46.5]
This game could turn out to be a goldmine for fantasy value. Both of these teams play at a fast pace and produce a high volume of plays. Running the ball over 60% of the time has not slowed down Baltimore’s pace at all, and if they continue to control the game with the run, it’s going to force Tampa into passing – which is what they do already. From a match-up perspective, this looks like an awful game for the Bucs. However, with the expected volume this offense should see, there are opportunities to roster some players at very low ownership this week. Baltimore has allowed 61.3 opponent plays per game the last three weeks (including 83 plays allowed to KC last week) with Tampa running an average 64.7 on offense. Baltimore is allowing the 6th fewest rush attempts per game this year and the 4th fewest yards per rush. If Jameis Winston ($5600) can continue to limit turnovers the way he has for the last three weeks, and gets his three week average of pass and run attempts of 41 per game we have to consider him as a viable pivot play this week. It’ll be hard to predict a WR going for 20+ points in this game which makes Winston a better play on his own, but if stacking a WR, we should look at the outside guys with either Mike Evans ($6700) or Chris Godwin ($4900). Cornerback Marlon Humphrey and Safety Tony Jefferson are both nursing injuries and may not play, which will be a boost to both of these guys. Evans has the higher ceiling of the two, and after Godwin burned a lot of folks last week, you can probably get either guy at low ownership depending on the salary range you’re looking to spend here. The Ravens have been especially soft against TEs lately, so Cam Brate ($4000) looks like a potential three catch/2 TD play in this game. Kansas City targeted their running backs 12 times for ten catches/78 yards/1 TD last week, so if desperate to save some salary at RB, then Jacquizz Rodgers ($3400) is a punt to consider.
Lamar Jackson ($5900) has officially displaced Joe Flacco as the starter in Baltimore. With the Ravens still in striking range of the Steelers for tops in the division, there will be no let-up. The Ravens will try to expose the Bucs weak run defense with their mobile QB, Gus “The Bus” Edwards ($4400) and Kenny Dixon ($3500). Of this trio, only Jackson has a high enough floor to consider rostering. Gus needs TD(s) and/or the DK yardage bonus to get to 20 points since he doesn’t get targets, and Dixon’s potential is capped by the crowded backfield, which also includes Ty Montgomery ($3600). None of the pass catchers have high ceilings here either, which limits the exposure to this side of the ball to Jackson, and possibly the Ravens DST ($3000) if you think the Bucs OL is no match for T-Sizzle & Co. and forces Jameis into the ill-advised throws he used to make.
Oakland Raiders (21.25/+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (24.25/-3)[45.5]
This game has the ability to produce some good plays in DFS, or completely shit the bed. Neither team has a good defense, and conversely, neither team has a good offense right now. The match-up to exploit with the Raiders will be their RBs against the Bengals non-existent run defense. The Bengals are allowing 34.3 points per game to the RB position while at home. That’s second highest points allowed on the slate after Tampa Bay’s 35.0 points allowed on the road. Doug Martin ($4700) will surely be on my list for value plays at RB this week, and almost as surely is going to burn me for rostering him. Martin has 16 and 18 carries each of the last two weeks and a three-game TD streak going – his only three of the year. The match-up and value line-up so well, it just makes me nervous to roster any Raider RB this year. What’s scarier is there are other Raiders to consider here that all offer salary relief and have good match-ups on paper. Jared Cook ($5600) is facing an average defense versus TEs in general but has been beat by some of the better ones in the league. Cook is on a two-game streak of 100-yard games with seven catches in each, and one TD in there. I’m also willing to let Derek Carr ($5400), Jordy Nelson ($4200), and Seth Roberts ($3700) into the pool this week. On a slate such as this, these are legit options worth pondering while constructing rosters this weekend.
OMS = Offensive Market Share
There is value on the Cincy side we have to consider as well. Jeff Driskel ($5100) is uber-cheap and has the potential to put up 18-20 points in this match-up. The only issue is both sides are good at limiting their own offensive play totals, as well as their opponent’s. Cincy has limited their last three opponents to 58 plays while the Raiders have been more generous and have allowed 65 per game over their previous three (OAK allows 60 per game over the entire season). The best play from this entire game is Joe Mixon ($6100). Mixon has averaged 66% of the snap share since Gio Bernard returned in week 10, and last game Cincy gave Mixon a 54% share of the entire offensive opportunities. If that carries over into this week, he should have no trouble clearing 20 points again this week. The trouble for Mixon will be the return of Jelly Ellis to the middle of that Raiders defensive line. In the two games, he’s been back in the line-up, the Raiders have only allowed a cumulative average of 20.7 points per game to the RB position and have been pretty tough overall against the run since the early portion of the year when they were a DFS target for RBs. The Bengals have no choice but to feature Mixon though, so we have to keep him in the picture this week. In the passing game, the Raiders have averaged a league-high 8.6 yard per pass attempt (home & away), and 2.14 passing TDs per game and a 71% rate of multiple passing TDs while on the road. This is where I think Driskel and Mixon can do their damage. Tyler Boyd ($5700) seems to be fading away a bit with Driskel at QB, averaging just under eight targets per game in his last three outings. A home match-up could help boost him back into the 20 point range since he’s the best pass catcher they have left. There is a narrative to consider with this one as well, the Raider’s DC Paul Guenther was the DC for the Bengals for the last four years before heading to Oakland and was with Cincy for the last 13 years in some capacity. He knows this team inside and out…maybe a little less for the newer guys like Driskel and Mixon.
Green Bay Packers (19.75/+5.5) at Chicago Bears (25.25/-5.5) 
As we can see from the match-up chart above, the Bears are not a team to spend much effort trying to run against when they are at home, and teams typically don’t even bother to. This puts the Packers passing game into play as we search for DFS options. The first thing that jumps out for me is the loss of Bryce Callahan in the slot. He’ll be replaced by Sherrick McManis, who according to PFF grades was better in his limited reps than Callahan has been all year. I’d still expect Aaron Rodgers ($5700) to test him with some early throws to Randall Cobb ($4400) in the slot. Cobb has not had a good season, but he did put up 32 points against the Bears in week 1, so he’s got to be in the conversation when analyzing this game. Davante Adams ($7900) will see the most of Prince Amukamara out wide, who is the weakest of the two outside corners (according to PFF grades). Adams should see heavy targets in this one as Rodgers’ most trusted receiving option. Rodgers, Adams, and to a lesser extent Cobb are about all I can reasonably consider in a game against this defense. Aaron Jones ($6600) has burned me a bit in back to back optimal match-ups, and this is the polar opposite of that. Now watch him go ham in this spot.
Looking at the match-up chart indicates the Packers defense is exploitable by QBs, RBs, and Slot WRs. Mitch Trubisky ($6000) and Tarik Cohen ($6300) were on my radar before looking at the chart, so it reaffirms my initial instincts in this match-up. The concern with the Bears is their DST ($2900) controlling the game, which would limit Trubisky to around 30 pass attempts and maybe five runs. He would have to be highly efficient with that low of volume to really hit a big score. The best way to go here may be in the running game with Cohen. The 100 yard game by Jordan Howard ($3900) last week takes a little bit of the luster off Cohen, but Cohen doesn’t really need rush attempts to reach his ceiling, as he has gone over 100 yards receiving twice this year and has six games over six receptions. It should be noted that even though the Pack show a high average point total going to the slot WR, it is primarily coming from opponent top WRs that move into the slot in 3 WR sets (ie. Thielen, Baldwin, Edelman), and not just a 3rd WR who comes in to play the slot. Anthony Miller ($4300) isn’t in that type of company at this point, and the Bears don’t have a stand out WR this year, other than Cohen. The Pack are adamant against the TE, so I’ll be avoiding Burton here. This game sets up best as a Rodgers/Adams/Cohen game-stack that you could add Cobb to if you need to punt at WR.
Miami Dolphins (18.5/+7.5) at Minnesota Vikings (26.0/-7.5) [44.5]
There are two defenses I prefer to avoid when they are at home unless the opponent is elite, and they are Chicago and Minnesota. The Dolphins offense is not elite and does not run enough plays to make anyone here an optimal play. If you’re looking for something contrarian, I’d go with either Kenyan Drake ($4200) or Ryan Tannehill ($4900).
Kirk Cousins ($6200) has had two rough games in a row, and it led to getting his OC fired. That’s not usually something that happens on a team in playoff position. This is a good bounce-back spot for Cousins though, since Miami has allowed the last three QBs they’ve faced to score at least 23 points on them. However, there’s also a chance he doesn’t have to do much in this one to win. The Dolphins started out the year as an easy target to play an RB against, but have been tight against that position since Aaron Jones went off on them back in week 10. The teams they shut down have been RBBCs though, so there’s a chance that the Vikings lead back Dalvin Cook ($6500) can have a great game. He hasn’t cleared 20 points yet this year, but this will be a great opportunity for him to have a breakout game. He’s priced below the top tier of Zeke and Barkley and could outscore everyone else in his pricing tier, possibly even approaching the top 2 or 3 RB for the slate. Cook is game-script independent, so he’ll be involved no matter what happens unless it’s a major blowout early and they preserve him. If Cook is having a good day, it probably means the Viking DST ($3100) is as well. They make a good RB/DST stack for this slate. If Miami somehow makes this a game, or if the game plan for the Vikes is to come out swinging with the pass, then Adam Thielen ($8600) and Stepfon Diggs ($7600) should be able to put up some points. Thielen has the higher ceiling based on the Dolphins recent games that have seen slot WRs Julian Edelman and Zay Jones go for about 24 points each.
Arizona Cardinals (17.0/+10) at Atlanta Falcons (27.0/-10) 
The Falcons were having a hard time against opposing RBs until Deion Jones returned to the lineup two games ago. Aaron Jones was able to put 19.6 points on the Falcons in Green Bay last week, which is a very probable score for David Johnson ($7100) this week. Johnson is all the Cards have, and is the only viable play we have for them here, except for maybe Larry Fitzgerald ($4700). Fitz isn’t likely to get a 20+ point game though…Johnson might.
A classic rivalry is restored in this game when Alabama’s Julio Jones ($8400) squares off against LSU’s Patrick Peterson. These were fun games to watch back in the SEC West, and I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out now that these two are this established in their pro careers. From college to the pros, this has been a back and forth battle. They have faced each other three times in the NFL with Jones having one huge game and two quiet games. Jones should be set to even the rivalry and will be a primary player in my pool this week (and on my main redraft playoff team). The last four #1 WRs the Cards have faced on the road scored 23.3, 20.2, 35.7, and 32.3. As long as Julio gets moved around the formation, this should be considered his range of outcomes. Julio’s major impediment this year seems to be his QB Matt Ryan ($6100), but Julio has still produced elite numbers this year. I’m expecting both Julio and Ryan to come up big in this game. If you think Arizona sells out to stop Julio, Calvin Ridley ($5000) may be worth the risk. His stat line isn’t pretty lately, but this could be a bounce-back game for him. Another player that could have a good here is Tevin Coleman ($4200) if Ito Smith ($3700) were to sit out due to his neck injury. Coleman is a risky play based on his lack of production lately. The Falcons DST ($2700) is an interesting pivot option with how bad an offense the Cards are putting on the field.
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Seattle Seahawks (23.75/-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers (20.25/+3.5) 
These two teams just faced off in Seattle two weeks ago, so a quick turnaround on the rematch here. In that last game, only two players went for over 20 points: Russell Wilson ($6700) and an out-of-nowhere game by Jaron Brown ($3000). Wilson seems likely to repeat the 20 point performance, but I doubt Brown does. The Seattle RBs combined for only 27.3 points led by Chris Carson’s ($5600) 13.8 effort. The Seattle backfield is a clusterfunk, with Carson the 50% leader in snap percentage followed by Rashaad Penny ($4300) seeing about 30% and Mike Davis ($3800) weened down to 20%. The Niners have a pretty solid run defense, so I wouldn’t go shopping for an RB in this committee. Doug Baldwin’s ($5300) last four games against the Niners have all been duds. Tyler Lockett ($6200) is the only interesting Seattle WR, but he’s priced like a guy who gets more volume and production than he does. He only saw 2 targets against the Niners last game converting only 1 into a catch that went 31 yards for a TD. Not much to like here, unless you’re looking for low owned/high-risk plays.
The 49ers have had to be resilient and gut out a season with so many starters and the backups to the starters getting hurt (and cutting a 1st round pick from their last draft – which was awful as a whole). The brilliant mind of Kyle Shanahan is somehow getting production from the cast of players he’s had to work with. A surprising stat I came across on Twitter (care of @ChrisBiderman) notes how well Nick Mullens ($4800) has been playing as the starting QB in terms of yards per game.
Mullens is cheap and facing a team that can be thrown on, so I will be back on him again this week. He’s good for 18-20 points and opens up a lot on the rest of the roster when you plug him in. Somehow Draft Kings seems to have forgotten Mullen’s 414-yard performance against the Seahawks in Seattle just two weeks ago, then another 332 against Denver last week. Other good plays from the Niners side of the ball are Dante Pettis ($4400) who is mispriced for his role as the #1 WR on the team right now, and the guy that is sort of the de facto #1 WR (though you get him at TE pricing) George Kittle ($6300). If you build a line-up around these three, it leaves $34,500 in salary left to hammer elite RBs and a couple more good WRs. Count me in!
Tennessee Titans (21.25/+1) at New York Giants (22.25/-1) [43.5]
Derrick Henry just went from a $3600 salary to $5000 on the heels of that epic performance last week. The match-up here looks just as good. The Giants defense is somehow better on the road against the run, and considering they have three road games over their last five since they had their bye week and are still allowing 120.8 rush yards per game, Derrick Henry could be feasting again. The Giants allow plenty of passes to go out to the RB position as well, so there is room for Dion Lewis ($4600) to get a piece of the action here, too. The Giants have done well to shut down passing games so Henry and Lewis are the limit of my interest for the Titans in this spot. Anthony Firkser ($2900) taking over as the top pass-catching TE has a bit of intrigue though.
“Shit ain’t right” with Odell Beckham’s quad, and he’ll miss another game because of it. The Titans are a tough defense to isolate a great play against as they have gone from shutting down Zeke and Fournette to letting Lamar Miller get 23 points on them. They’ll hold Hopkins to 12, but allow Hilton to go for 36. What this means is just play the Giants (and one of the NFL’s) best player Saquon Barkley ($9400) and move on. I for certain will have at least 1 Saquon line-up this week as a hedge for redraft, since I’m playing against him there. If he goes nuts and beats me in redraft, maybe he can make me some money in DFS?
Detroit Lions (18.5/+2.5) at Buffalo Bills (21.0/-2.5) [39.5]
The Lions are an infirmary right now with all their injuries. They barely scraped out a win in Arizona that required a TD from both the offense and the defense. Tre’Davious White should be all over Golladay, and they don’t have any other healthy and formidable plays to utilize in this match-up for DFS. The Bills present quite a few options though. Josh Allen ($5800) looks like the second coming of Mike Vick right now, even breaking his record for most rushing yards over their first eight starts at QB. Allen is certainly in play here, but we do need to consider how tough the Lions have been on running QBs this year. They have faced Newton, Wilson, and Trubisky to name a few and have surrendered just 62 total rushing yards on the season to the QB position. In addition to Allen, I like his deep threat Robert Foster ($4300) who has a ridiculous 23.6 aDOT over the last three weeks and just had his first career 100-yard game after the Bills opened up the opportunity depth chart by releasing Fat Kelvin. Josh Allen leads the league in average intended air yards at 11.1. That’s 1.9 yards more than Pat Mahomes for a point of reference. This combo has enormous potential to break a slate before the season is done. Zay Jones ($4200) seems to be on an every other week production schedule, and this is his week to play well. This is another super cheap trio that has high upside and allows you to cram in a bunch of elite options elsewhere. The Bills DST ($2800) against a struggling and injured Detroit offensive line looks appealing here, too.
Washington Redskins (14.25/+7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (21.75/-7.5) 
After what Derrick Henry just did to the Jags defense, and considering the Redskins are starting a QB they just signed five days before their last game it would make a ton of sense to try and pound Adrian Peterson ($4100) at the Jags defense 25 times in this game. They may not have to rely solely on Peterson here though. Josh Johnson ($4300) was the QB3 last week and only played four possessions. He’s probably going to be a bit chalky because of the salary being so low, but he has an honest shot at 18-20 points here. Jacksonville has had trouble with mobile QBs this year (see: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, first game vs. Mariota), so I would expect to see a decent rushing total and floor from Johnson here. It sounds as if Washington is prepared to play this game with Johnson as a running threat, similar to how Baltimore is playing with Jackson at QB. With the Jags secondary being as good as they are, I wouldn’t bother with trying to roster perimeter players and would narrow down the Washington skill players to Chris Thompson ($4400) and Vernon Davis ($3200) if I were to punt with any.
I would assume the Jaguars will try and run Leonard Fournette ($7500) as much as possible and take the ball out of Cody Kessler’s ($4700) hand. As long as Kessler is running this offense (into the ground), Fournette is the only real option here. Dede Westbrook ($4500) has been the only WR with a solid game in Kessler’s two starts. He’s pretty risky due to game environment, but would be the best play from the Jags pass catchers based on some interesting data tweeted out by beat writer @john_keim
Redskins allow 5.67 yards after catch per catch to WRS, 31st in the NFL. Some is related to cushion: too much at times; WR has 3-5 yards free room to work after catch at times. EZ $. Some related to missed tackles: 1.84 yards after 1st contact. Also 31st. Good (mid) morning!
— John Keim (@john_keim) December 14, 2018
There has been some speculation that Blake Bortles could come into the game toward the final quarter or drive and play his last series as a Jaguar as a way for the team to thank him for his time there. If this game is a blow out one way or another, that would seem like a very likely scenario.
This is the ugliest main slate of the season, but there are still some interesting plays to work with. We’ll have to think a little more outside the box because the chalk is going to be condensed around only a couple of games, mainly the Pats/Steelers game. There are only two elite RB options this week, so they will have massive ownership, too. It seems like the best way to pass the field in large GPPs is to fade the NE/PIT game and the top two RBs. Game stacks on some of the other games where one side may see low ownership looks like a good way to go. I suspect many will pay down at QB this week because of the potential of those lower priced options, but the savings may not be needed if you’re taking a lot of mid-priced pivots as it is. I’ve played around with a couple of rosters and both have low priced-QBs, but that’s because I’m having a hard time talking myself into fading Zeke and Saquon. It has to happen (or one or the other) in a few line-ups though. Below is the start of my player pool (in order of games listed above) that I will add and/or remove players to as I continue my research this weekend. Perhaps it’ll be a useful tool for you to start your player pool with. Good luck this week, and thanks for reading!
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Thanks for Reading!
NorCal native Jesse Jones has been obsessed with fantasy football since joining and winning his first league in 1994. He has been a leader in looking for an edge, while others showed up to drafts asking for a cheat sheet and a pencil. He’s been writing his own rankings and mining data to build spreadsheets for 12+ years. Jess puts in hundreds of hours of research and analysis each offseason to build his own database and identify targets for Redraft and Bestball. During the season Jess pours countless hours into DFS research. All of his analysis and findings are passed onto you as the reader.