Welcome to a weekly series where I provide you with what I think is the optimal cash game lineup. All prices, fantasy points, and analyses are based on DraftKings’ DFS platform. If you are unfamiliar with what cash games are, or if you are interested in my basic strategy, click here.
Week 7 Recap
As I noted in last week’s article, this was a really tough week. I would’ve been okay just breaking even. That’s how tight I thought the slate was. Unfortunately, I took a decent loss. Sunday morning, I made a pivot from the trio of Keenan Allen, Zay Flowers, and Baltimore Ravens DST to Cooper Kupp, Marquise Brown, and New England Patriots. The latter trio projected better in base and in ceiling, so it was a no-brainer at the time. I still think it was the correct decision, but the side of the 3v3 I switched off scored 15.2 points more than the side I switched to, taking me from an amazing week to a bad one.
Here are my results to date.
- Week 1: Won 44.4% of head-to-heads
- Week 2: Won 92.3% of head-to-heads 🔥
- Week 3: Won 92.3 % of head-to-heads 🔥
- Week 4: Won 7.1% of head-to-heads
- Week 5: Won 92.3% of head-to-heads 🔥
- Week 6: Won 71.43% of head-to-heads 🔥
- Week 7: Won 35.71% of head-to-heads
Total ROI: 12.00%
Now, let’s dive into Week 7.
The quarterback position was by far the hardest part of this slate. There were some really obvious value plays at the other positions early in the week, so I knew I was going to have to decide between the three elite options, Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), Jalen Hurts ($8,200), and Lamar Jackson ($8,100). I think you have to play one of these three because the only way paying down at QB would give you an edge is if none of these three separate, and I think it’s unlikely they all have median or floor outcomes. Next, I thought choosing to play Mahomes over Hurts and Jackson was a clear mistake because you’re paying more for the only QB in this trio who doesn’t really run. He has a similar floor but a lower ceiling. So then it was Hurts vs Jackson. I slightly lean toward Hurts because his weekly results have been much more stable, whereas Jackson can have a lot of low-score weeks that kill you. I can’t handle that at $8,100 when I can get a similar player with a safer floor for $100 more.
I’m not entirely sure how DraftKings goes about pricing players, but part of the equation must be based on a player’s output from the previous week because Bijan Robinson ($6,000) is a massive $1,400 cheaper than a week ago. I don’t know if he deserves to be $7,400, but I do know he shouldn’t be $6k.
Another price that doesn’t make any sense to me is Breece Hall ($5,900). Hall saw another bump in utilization in the last game he played in before the Jets’ bye, and complimented it with 20.3 DK points. He also has a great matchup against the 30th-ranked Giant run defense.
I have a new rule where I just play Tyreek Hill ($9,500) in cash when he’s on the slate. I feel great about playing the PPG leader, even at his steep cost.
After a monster Monday night performance, Jordan Addison was a cash lock ($5,700). I thought he was a great prospect and looks like he’s finally broken out. I have a hard time believing he takes a major step back or that Monday was a fluke. It also helps that he projects as one of the better values on the slate.
There are a few interesting punt plays, but none are as enticing as Micahel Gallup ($3,400). He’s viewed as the most unpriced player on the slate by my projected salary model and also has a higher ceiling than the other guys in his price range. This was the easiest click of the week.
Now that the role flip seems sticky, I feel great about playing Trey McBride ($2,800). He’s now played 48% and 52% of the snaps in his last two games, a marked improvement from early in the season. I think that number can still grow, and if not, he should be efficient enough on his opportunities to pay off his salary.
D’Andre Swift ($6,300) is a weekly conversation for cash and this week calls for it. His role has been so solid, and he hasn’t really face-planted since becoming the starter. He doesn’t have crazy upside, but he’s basically a lock to score somewhere in the mid-to-high teens.
There are several viable options at DST, but none that I feel separated, so this was the last part of my team I made. Given that I went with the Hurts/Swift duo, I can fit in Cincinnati Bengals DST ($2,200). I think they should be closer to $2,500, so I’m also getting a little value.
After last week’s slate, this was a gift. I have a ton of high-confidence plays and feel great about this lineup. The hardest part will be seeing how the elite tier of QBs pans out. If Hurts can separate, I should have a big week.
Here is the final lineup:
Jacob White is an avid fan of all things NFL, particularly fantasy football and the Chicago Bears. He is currently studying Economics at Wabash College where he hopes to learn the skills to further his career in the sports entertainment industry. He specializes in redraft, DFS, and best ball, where he routinely finishes at a profit, including a 2020 13-0 finish on the high-stakes KFFSC platform. You can find him on Twitter @FF_JacobWhite for additional advice on all things football and the semi-occasional homer tweet.