Welcome to a weekly series where I provide you with what I think is the optimal cash game lineup. All prices, fantasy points, and analyses are based on DraftKings’ DFS platform. If you are unfamiliar with what cash games are, or if you are interested in my basic strategy, click here.
Week 5 Recap
I needed a good week after a poor showing last week. Not even halfway into the 1 p.m. slate, Anthony Richardson was knocked out of the game. I thought I was dead. Then, Montgomery went off. Hill dropped 35. My IKB (I know better) on Breece Hall smashed. I managed to go 12-1 yet again in H2Hs and posted another 92.3% win rate. Outside of Wan’Dale Robinson, I thought the slate was pretty tight. My player pool reflected that. I did happen to get on to a lot of guys that smashed, but it was a big mistake by me to not play Ja’Marr Chase. I even mentioned in the article that I originally was going to play him, but got up to AJ Brown just because I had the money. This was a clear mistake. Although I really liked Brown’s game environment, Chase straight-up had a higher projection and was likely to be more positively affected by Tee Higgins’ absence than Tyler Boyd. Fortunately, this mistake wasn’t costly as I ran well at other positions.
Here are my results to date.
- Week 1: Won 44.4% of head-to-heads
- Week 2: Won 92.3% of head-to-heads 🔥
- Week 3: Won 92.3 % of head-to-heads 🔥
- Week 4: Won 7.1% of head-to-heads
- Week 5: Won 92.3% of head-to-heads 🔥
Total ROI: 19.03% Now, let’s dive into Week 6.
I looked at a few options at QB this week, but in the end, I had to play Justin Fields ($7,300). The other two intriguing options were Joe Burrow ($6,300) and Sam Howell ($5,500). I think these two will be chalk in cash and they don’t have the floor or ceiling of Fields, and I don’t think the savings are worth it. Fields has scored almost 33 DK points in back-to-back games, and while we can’t project that going forward, his matchup at home against Minnesota is quite favorable.
As soon as we got word that De’Von Achane would miss time, I was always going to play Raheem Mostert ($6,400) against the NFL’s worst run defense. I suppose there’s some risk given we can’t assume he absorbs all of Achane’s touches. There will likely be some version of a committee, but Mostert will certainly be the feature back in the NFL’s best offense against the NFL’s worst run defense at $6,400. This is a smash play.
I was optimistic we’d have a punt option early in the week, but as I did more research and we got more news, it became clear I needed to pay up more at RB and play D’Andre Swift ($6,100). Swift doesn’t quite have an elite role, but since Week 2, he’s played 64% of snaps and his 12% target share would rank in the top 10 at his position. Additionally, he has a great matchup against the Jets, where Philadelphia figures to dominate and be led into a more run-heavy game script.
I tried my best to play Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300) and Tyreek Hill ($9,300), but I couldn’t do it. I had to choose which one to fade, and while fading Chase terrifies me, I have to play Hill. He has a weekly 30+ point upside and plays on a Dolphins team with an almost 31 implied point total. On a week with a lot of value, paying up for a stud like Hill seems necessary.
I think the key to the slate is figuring out how to attack the Viking pass-catching core. While both Brandon Powell ($3,000) and K.J. Osborn ($4,400) project better at their cost, I’m IKBing (“I know better”) this spot and playing Jordan Addison ($5,700). My thought process here is that he’s the most talented of the three and possesses the most upside. If this was a slate where prices were tighter and I really needed the salary relief, I think the case for playing one of the other two would be stronger. I don’t see how either of the other two can win you the week. Jordan Addison can.
I think Christian Kirk ($5,400) vs. Marquise Brown ($5,300) is a very close 1v1. Brown looks slightly better in base, but Kirk has significantly more upside. With that said, I don’t think it’s prudent to sacrifice 5-10 points of upside to gain 1 or 2 in base projections. Kirk has the superior QB and is on a better offense. It’s hard to fade Brown given his 29% target share, but when you consider how many of those are catchable and/or valuable, he becomes less desirable. For all of these reasons and more, I’m playing Kirk, my #1 value play in my projected salary model.
For once, I thought there were several viable options at tight end. I think Logan Thomas ($3,500), Kyle Pitts ($3,500), and Jonnu Smith ($3,400) are all pretty close, but I lean Pitts because of his upside. We finally saw a “breakout” game from him last week, as he scored 15.7 points on 11 targets. I’m optimistic he can continue that kind of performance this week as Atlanta takes on Washington’s 28th-ranked passing defense.
I don’t know how popular he’ll be in cash, but I think Josh Downs ($4,100) is super interesting. In three games that Gardner Minshew has taken significant snaps in, Downs has scored DK point totals of 7.7, 13.7, and 15.7. He’s just a rookie, so his ceiling is an unknown, where we are pretty sure teammates Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. aren’t anything special. I wouldn’t be surprised if Downs leads the Colts in receiving yards this Sunday.
This slate felt like the easiest in a month, with my hardest decision being whether I wanted to play Chase and Hill in this lineup. Ultimately, I felt like I was sacrificing too much at other positions to get those two in the same lineup, and had to settle for just Tyreek Hill. Also, there were so many good options at WR in the $5,500-$4k range and I couldn’t fit them all in the lineup. This is a good problem to have, though.
Here is the final lineup:
Jacob White is an avid fan of all things NFL, particularly fantasy football and the Chicago Bears. He is currently studying Economics at Wabash College where he hopes to learn the skills to further his career in the sports entertainment industry. He specializes in redraft, DFS, and best ball, where he routinely finishes at a profit, including a 2020 13-0 finish on the high-stakes KFFSC platform. You can find him on Twitter @FF_JacobWhite for additional advice on all things football and the semi-occasional homer tweet.