Gridiron Experts

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 9: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 9 (Sun-Mon Slate)

It’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Last week’s drafts were awesome. Joe Mixon and James Conner came through big time. Tyreek Hill was a bit of a disappointment, but the strength of your RBs should have propelled you to some wins especially if you drafted in first or third position.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 1st for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Cam Newton 26.14 24.0 QB1
Patrick Mahomes 22.99 21.3 QB2
Tom Brady 23.01 20.7 QB3

I think this is the first time DailyRoto and Draft had identical QB ranks, but look at Cam Newton! I normally don’t quote movies in my articles, but this situation reminded me of a line from The Matrix where Morpheus is talking to Neo shortly after the agents let Neo go. Morpheus tells Neo “They got to you first, but they’ve underestimated how important you are.” That’s how I feel about Newton this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Patrick Mahomes gets drafted first, but we’re not even going to risk it. We are going to draft Newton much earlier than we normally draft QBs.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 23.31 22.0 RB1
Kareem Hunt 19.38 18.4 RB3
Ezekiel Elliott 19.00 16.4 RB7
Melvin Gordon 18.61 18.6 RB2
Christian McCaffrey 18.30 16.9 RB6
Alvin Kamara 17.99 17.9 RB4
17.06 17.8 RB5

Another week with Todd Gurley sitting at the top of the RB mountain. There’s really not a whole lot of separation among the rest of the RBs. We are going to end up with a lot of Ezekiel Elliott.

Melvin Gordon is a bit of a tough situation. It doesn’t seem like his hamstring is too much of an issue, but we’ve seen how hamstring injuries have played out with Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. He’s RB2 on Draft so hopefully, we don’t even have to make a decision on whether to draft him or not.

The other thing to note is the drop off on projections on Draft after James Conner. I’m guessing other drafters will be scooping up RBs early to avoid that drop-off. Let them. It’ll let us snag Zeke late and some value at WR.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Adam Thielen 17.86 15.5 WR4
Tyreek Hill 17.32 15.0 WR6
Michael Thomas 16.65 15.3 WR5
Davante Adams 16.49 15.9 WR2
Stefon Diggs 16.29 12.1 WR16
Robert Woods 16.27 14.3 WR8
Julio Jones 16.27 17.2 WR1
Antonio Brown 15.26 15.9 WR3
DeAndre Hopkins 14.55 14.6 WR7

Adam Thielen FantasyIt’s very crowded at the WR position. I’m surprised how low Adam Thielen is on Draft. We don’t have to go crazy to reach for him, but he should be there for us if the other drafters do load up on those RBs early.

The two WRs I’m not wholly comfortable with are Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Hill is dealing with a groin injury and his status is unknown. Even if he plays, he certainly won’t be 100%. I just don’t think he’s worth the gamble this week especially if you’re drafting before the weekend. Diggs looks likely to play, but he’s dealing with an injury to his ribs. One solid hit may be all it takes to take him out of the game so I’m also passing on Diggs. The way these drafts play out, you should be able to get Michael Thomas or Robert Woods without it hurting your advantage too much.

 

Drafting in First Position

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Kareem Hunt
Cam Newton James Conner Alvin Kamara
Adam Thielen Julio Jones Davante Adams
Ezekiel Elliott Michael Thomas Antonio Brown
Tyreek Hill Patrick Mahomes Tom Brady
DR Total: 103.63 DR Total: 91.58 DR Total: 92.13
Draft Total: 92.9 Draft Total: 90.2 Draft Total: 88.8

When you can draft Gurley, you draft Gurley. I love the first draft position this week. You get the best options at all of the positions and you have a huge advantage. One thing I thought about doing was nabbing two WRs early to avoid Tyreek Hill, but I don’t like losing Newton since this is how it will likely play out:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Kareem Hunt
Adam Thielen James Conner Alvin Kamara
Michael Thomas Julio Jones Davante Adams
Patrick Mahomes Cam Newton Antonio Brown
Ezekiel Elliott Tyreek Hill Tom Brady
DR Total: 99.81 DR Total: 95.40 DR Total: 92.13
Draft Total: 90.5 Draft Total: 92.6 Draft Total: 88.8

I just don’t like this sequence and you can see it in the projected score distribution. I would rather get Newton early and just sub in Robert Woods or another WR in that last round. Woods isn’t exactly an exciting name, but the LAR-NO game over/under is 59.5 points. There will be plenty of fantasy production to go around giving Woods a very nice floor and a good ceiling.

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Kareem Hunt Melvin Gordon
James Conner Cam Newton Alvin Kamara
Patrick Mahomes Adam Thielen Julio Jones
Antonio Brown Tyreek Hill Davante Adams
Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott Tom Brady
DR Total: 95.27 DR Total: 99.70 DR Total: 92.37
Draft Total: 92.3 Draft Total: 89.3 Draft Total: 90.3

This is the position where the Cam Newton love becomes obvious. I think drafting Newton here forces Team 1 to draft Patrick Mahomes, which means Adam Thielen falls into your lap nicely. Be careful if Melvin Gordon drops past the first couple of rounds. If Gordon is still on the board for your third pick, draft Zeke and hope Thielen gets back to you for the next round. This is also a good position to switch out Hill if you want.

 

 

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Kareem Hunt Melvin Gordon
James Conner Cam Newton Alvin Kamara
Patrick Mahomes Adam Thielen Julio Jones
Antonio Brown Michael Thomas Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill Ezekiel Elliott Tom Brady
DR Total: 95.94 DR Total: 99.03 DR Total: 92.37
Draft Total: 92.0 Draft Total: 89.6 Draft Total: 90.3

You barely lose anything using DailyRoto’s projection and you actually gain a little using Draft’s projections.

Drafting in the Third Position

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Kareem Hunt
Julio Jones Alvin Kamara Cam Newton
James Conner Patrick Mahomes Adam Thielen
Tom Brady Davante Adams Tyreek Hill
Antonio Brown Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
DR Total: 94.91 DR Total: 92.73 DR Total: 99.70
Draft Total: 93.6 Draft Total: 89.0 Draft Total: 89.3

“Please draft Gordon Team 2, Please draft Gordon Team 2.” If Team 2 drafts Hunt, your choices may depend on when you’re actually doing the draft. If your drafting Thursday through Saturday, I would draft Newton and Zeke. If you’re drafting on Sunday and Gordon hasn’t had any setbacks, you may need to bite the bullet and draft Newton and Gordon. You always have Christian McCaffrey as a backup plan. His projection is right up there with Zeke and Gordon anyways.

Conclusion

There are so many ways to navigate the WR position, but we definitely want to target Cam Newton and take advantage of drafting Ezekiel Elliott late. If you’re crushing these drafts, send me some screenshots on twitter @FF_Gouge.

 

 

Go forth and conquer.

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

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