Daily Fantasy

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 9: Snake Draft Advice

Robert Woods

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 9 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFT 1It’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Last week’s drafts were awesome. Joe Mixon and James Conner came through big time. Tyreek Hill was a bit of a disappointment, but the strength of your RBs should have propelled you to some wins especially if you drafted in first or third position.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 1st for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

QuarterbacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Cam Newton26.1424.0QB1
Patrick Mahomes22.9921.3QB2
Tom Brady23.0120.7QB3

I think this is the first time DailyRoto and Draft had identical QB ranks, but look at Cam Newton! I normally don’t quote movies in my articles, but this situation reminded me of a line from The Matrix where Morpheus is talking to Neo shortly after the agents let Neo go. Morpheus tells Neo “They got to you first, but they’ve underestimated how important you are.” That’s how I feel about Newton this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Patrick Mahomes gets drafted first, but we’re not even going to risk it. We are going to draft Newton much earlier than we normally draft QBs.

Running Backs

Running BacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Todd Gurley23.3122.0RB1
Kareem Hunt19.3818.4RB3
Ezekiel Elliott19.0016.4RB7
Melvin Gordon18.6118.6RB2
Christian McCaffrey18.3016.9RB6
Alvin Kamara17.9917.9RB4
17.0617.8RB5

Another week with Todd Gurley sitting at the top of the RB mountain. There’s really not a whole lot of separation among the rest of the RBs. We are going to end up with a lot of Ezekiel Elliott.

Melvin Gordon is a bit of a tough situation. It doesn’t seem like his hamstring is too much of an issue, but we’ve seen how hamstring injuries have played out with Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. He’s RB2 on Draft so hopefully, we don’t even have to make a decision on whether to draft him or not.

The other thing to note is the drop off on projections on Draft after James Conner. I’m guessing other drafters will be scooping up RBs early to avoid that drop-off. Let them. It’ll let us snag Zeke late and some value at WR.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TEDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Adam Thielen17.8615.5WR4
Tyreek Hill17.3215.0WR6
Michael Thomas16.6515.3WR5
Davante Adams16.4915.9WR2
Stefon Diggs16.2912.1WR16
Robert Woods16.2714.3WR8
Julio Jones16.2717.2WR1
Antonio Brown15.2615.9WR3
DeAndre Hopkins14.5514.6WR7

Adam Thielen FantasyIt’s very crowded at the WR position. I’m surprised how low Adam Thielen is on Draft. We don’t have to go crazy to reach for him, but he should be there for us if the other drafters do load up on those RBs early.

The two WRs I’m not wholly comfortable with are Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Hill is dealing with a groin injury and his status is unknown. Even if he plays, he certainly won’t be 100%. I just don’t think he’s worth the gamble this week especially if you’re drafting before the weekend. Diggs looks likely to play, but he’s dealing with an injury to his ribs. One solid hit may be all it takes to take him out of the game so I’m also passing on Diggs. The way these drafts play out, you should be able to get Michael Thomas or Robert Woods without it hurting your advantage too much.

 

Drafting in First Position

YouTeam 2Team 3
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonKareem Hunt
Cam NewtonJames ConnerAlvin Kamara
Adam ThielenJulio JonesDavante Adams
Ezekiel ElliottMichael ThomasAntonio Brown
Tyreek HillPatrick MahomesTom Brady
DR Total: 103.63DR Total: 91.58DR Total: 92.13
Draft Total: 92.9Draft Total: 90.2Draft Total: 88.8

When you can draft Gurley, you draft Gurley. I love the first draft position this week. You get the best options at all of the positions and you have a huge advantage. One thing I thought about doing was nabbing two WRs early to avoid Tyreek Hill, but I don’t like losing Newton since this is how it will likely play out:

YouTeam 2Team 3
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonKareem Hunt
Adam ThielenJames ConnerAlvin Kamara
Michael ThomasJulio JonesDavante Adams
Patrick MahomesCam NewtonAntonio Brown
Ezekiel ElliottTyreek HillTom Brady
DR Total: 99.81DR Total: 95.40DR Total: 92.13
Draft Total: 90.5Draft Total: 92.6Draft Total: 88.8

I just don’t like this sequence and you can see it in the projected score distribution. I would rather get Newton early and just sub in Robert Woods or another WR in that last round. Woods isn’t exactly an exciting name, but the LAR-NO game over/under is 59.5 points. There will be plenty of fantasy production to go around giving Woods a very nice floor and a good ceiling.

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1YouTeam 3
Todd GurleyKareem HuntMelvin Gordon
James ConnerCam NewtonAlvin Kamara
Patrick MahomesAdam ThielenJulio Jones
Antonio BrownTyreek HillDavante Adams
Michael ThomasEzekiel ElliottTom Brady
DR Total: 95.27DR Total: 99.70DR Total: 92.37
Draft Total: 92.3Draft Total: 89.3Draft Total: 90.3

This is the position where the Cam Newton love becomes obvious. I think drafting Newton here forces Team 1 to draft Patrick Mahomes, which means Adam Thielen falls into your lap nicely. Be careful if Melvin Gordon drops past the first couple of rounds. If Gordon is still on the board for your third pick, draft Zeke and hope Thielen gets back to you for the next round. This is also a good position to switch out Hill if you want.

 

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Team 1YouTeam 3
Todd GurleyKareem HuntMelvin Gordon
James ConnerCam NewtonAlvin Kamara
Patrick MahomesAdam ThielenJulio Jones
Antonio BrownMichael ThomasDavante Adams
Tyreek HillEzekiel ElliottTom Brady
DR Total: 95.94DR Total: 99.03DR Total: 92.37
Draft Total: 92.0Draft Total: 89.6Draft Total: 90.3

You barely lose anything using DailyRoto’s projection and you actually gain a little using Draft’s projections.

Drafting in the Third Position

Team 1Team 2You
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonKareem Hunt
Julio JonesAlvin KamaraCam Newton
James ConnerPatrick MahomesAdam Thielen
Tom BradyDavante AdamsTyreek Hill
Antonio BrownMichael ThomasEzekiel Elliott
DR Total: 94.91DR Total: 92.73DR Total: 99.70
Draft Total: 93.6Draft Total: 89.0Draft Total: 89.3

“Please draft Gordon Team 2, Please draft Gordon Team 2.” If Team 2 drafts Hunt, your choices may depend on when you’re actually doing the draft. If your drafting Thursday through Saturday, I would draft Newton and Zeke. If you’re drafting on Sunday and Gordon hasn’t had any setbacks, you may need to bite the bullet and draft Newton and Gordon. You always have Christian McCaffrey as a backup plan. His projection is right up there with Zeke and Gordon anyways.

Conclusion

There are so many ways to navigate the WR position, but we definitely want to target Cam Newton and take advantage of drafting Ezekiel Elliott late. If you’re crushing these drafts, send me some screenshots on twitter @FF_Gouge.

 

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Go forth and conquer.

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