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DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 7: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 7 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 7I hope you did some drafts last week. Todd Gurley was the play last week if you could get him, but the other draft positions we drafted were full of Melvin Gordon, Julio Jones, James Conner, Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes. Hopefully, you were able to put it all together last week but if not, I like how this week sets up for our three-person drafts for Week 7.

Big reminder for this week. These projections are based on the full Sunday-Monday slate, but Melvin Gordon plays Monday morning at 9:30 AM EST. You may have to adjust if you like to do these drafts right before the 1:00 PM EST games kickoff.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on October 18th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Patrick Mahomes 23.77 21.9 QB1
Matt Ryan 22.01 20.3 QB2
Jared Goff 21.25 19.1 QB8
Jameis Winston 21.19 19.8 QB3
Andy Dalton 20.8 17.7 QB17

QBs are fairly tightly packed, but there is a bit of separation between Patrick Mahomes and everyone else. Even though Jared Goff looks like a bit of a deal, there’s not really a scenario where we wait long enough on QB to get him.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 25.33 23.6 RB1
Saquon Barkley 20.13 22.4 RB2
Melvin Gordon 19.91 18 RB4
Ezekiel Elliott 19.87 18.1 RB3
Joe Mixon 19.33 16.4 RB7
Alvin Kamara 16.78 12.7 RB10
Christian McCaffrey 16.62 16.9 RB5
Kareem Hunt 15.87 16.8 RB6

The top four RBs are pretty much identical between DailyRoto and Draft, but we’re going to target Joe Mixon everywhere. You can see a pretty big drop between Mixon and everyone else this week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Julio Jones 19.12 17.2 WR1
Odell Beckham Jr. 18.75 14.6 WR8
Robert Woods 18.34 15.4 WR6
Tyreek Hill 17.93 15.5 WR5
Adam Thielen 17.89 16.1 WR3
A.J. Green 17.29 14.8 WR7
Michael Thomas 15.43 15.7 WR4
DeAndre Hopkins 14.48 16.3 WR2

Wow! Once again, Julio Jones is a stud on both sites. I’m going out on the limb and predicting that he actually gets into the endzone this week. Behind Jones, DailyRoto and Draft are misaligned everywhere creating tons of opportunity for us. We’re going to let our opponents scoop up Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins who have exceptionally tough matchups and grab all the Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr, and Roberts Woods.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

When you get a chance to draft Todd Gurley, you draft Todd Gurley. This draft just falls into your lap:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon Julio Jones Melvin Gordon
Patrick Mahomes DeAndre Hopkins Adam Thielen
Odell Beckham Jr Christian McCaffrey Michael Thomas
Robert Woods Matt Ryan Jameis Winston
DR Total: 105.52 DR Total: 92.36 DR Total: 94.29
Draft Total: 91.9 Draft Total: 93.1 Draft Total: 87.7

Team 2 might throw a wrench in this. I’m certain Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott will be drafted before your second pick. There’s about a 50/50 chance Julio Jones isn’t drafted before your second pick. Here’s what it may look like:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
Julio Jones Christian McCaffrey Ezekiel Elliott
Odell Beckham Jr DeAndre Hopkins Adam Thielen
Matt Ryan Patrick Mahomes Michael Thomas
Joe Mixon Tyreek Hill Jameis Winston
DR Total: 104.54 DR Total: 92.93 DR Total: 94.29
Draft Total: 92.1 Draft Total: 93.0 Draft Total: 87.7

Go ahead and take Julio Jones if he falls to you. You get a bump in expected points at WR, but you may have to take Matt Ryan instead of Patrick Mahomes.  It really doesn’t matter too much from a total points scored or points advantage standpoint. Bonus if Mahomes still falls to you!

Drafting in Second Position

This draft also falls in place for you:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey Julio Jones Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Patrick Mahomes Adam Thielen
Matt Ryan Odell Beckham Jr Michael Thomas
Tyreek Hill Joe Mixon Jameis Winston
DR Total: 96.37 DR Total: 101.10 DR Total: 94.29
Draft Total: 92.6 Draft Total: 92.5 Draft Total: 87.7

I like the draft, but I’m not sure I’m ecstatic about having Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr on the same team. Here’s an interesting variation:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey Julio Jones Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Robert Woods Michael Thomas
A.J. Green Patrick Mahomes Tyreek Hill
Matt Ryan Joe Mixon Jameis Winston
DR Total: 95.73 DR Total: 100.69 DR Total: 94.33
Draft Total: 91.9 Draft Total: 94.0 Draft Total: 87.1

I like this a lot. It makes it unlikely Odell Beckham Jr gets drafted, but you still get two of the top three WRs. Saquon Barkley and Melvin Gordon are projected for nearly identical points so feel free to swap them if you don’t trust the Giants at all:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey Julio Jones Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Robert Woods Michael Thomas
Matt Ryan Patrick Mahomes Tyreek Hill
A.J. Green Joe Mixon Jameis Winston
DR Total: 95.73 DR Total: 100.47 DR Total: 94.55
Draft Total: 91.9 Draft Total: 88.9 Draft Total: 91.5

There’s barely a difference with this team’s projection and you don’t have to worry about the Giants.

 

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Drafting in the Third Position

The third position has a few lines you could take. Let’s look at starting RB-RB:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Julio Jones Christian McCaffrey Melvin Gordon
DeAndre Hopkins Adam Thielen Patrick Mahomes
Kareem Hunt Matt Ryan Robert Woods
Jameis Winston Michael Thomas Odell Beckham Jr
DR Total: 95.99 DR Total: 94.51 DR Total: 100.64
Draft Total: 93.7 Draft Total: 92.1 Draft Total: 88.0

I like it. Here’s what happens if we got RB-WR:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
DeAndre Hopkins Ezekiel Elliott Julio Jones
Christian McCaffrey Adam Thielen Patrick Mahomes
Matt Ryan Michael Thomas Joe Mixon
Tyreek Hill Jameis Winston Odell Beckham Jr
DR Total: 96.37 DR Total: 94.51 DR Total: 100.88
Draft Total: 92.6 Draft Total: 92.1 Draft Total: 88.1

This isn’t bad either. Where the RB-WR line would be awesome is if we wait until after the Melvin Gordon game starts Sunday morning. Instead of Gordon, you go Ezekiel Elliott and Julio Jones. The rest of your team should stay the same, but Team 1 or Team 2 will have to get Kareem Hunt who is projected fairly low. Whether you’re a ‘Julio is due for positive regression’ and start RB-WR with him or you’re on the  ‘Never Julio’ kick and go RB-RB, you can get a nice edge from the third spot.

Conclusion

Joe Mixon, Odell Beckham Jr, and Robert Woods are all you need to get an advantage from each position this week. QB is normally a three-way crapshoot, but Patrick Mahomes looks like he’s in a tier of his own so try to get him where possible. Go forth and conquer.

 

 

Thanks & Good Luck!

 

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