Daily Fantasy

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 6: Three Person Snake Draft Advice

Tom Brady

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 6 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFT 1It’s amazing what happens when you break these drafts down and start to really think about all of the variables. I’ve found at least one edge each week that seems to go against intuition and this week is no different. Let’s take a look at some projections and how we can exploit the Week 6 NFL slate on Draft.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on October 12th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

QuarterbacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Tom Brady23.3720.4QB5
Patrick Mahomes23.0821.7QB1
Matt Ryan22.8921.7QB1
Aaron Rodgers22.7221.2QB4
Jameis Winston21.4419.2QB9
Deshaun Watson20.9921.3QB3

As far as DailyRoto is concerned, the top four highest projected QBs are a toss-up. The big difference between Draft and DailyRoto is Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. We want to exploit that difference, but maybe not in the way you would expect.

Running Backs

Running BacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Todd Gurley22.4822.3RB1
Joe Mixon18.5916.7RB4
Melvin Gordon18.4218.2RB2
Ezekiel Elliott17.7417.1RB3
Christian McCaffrey17.4216.7RB5
James Conner17.1416.2RB7
T.J. Yeldon15.0615.2RB8
David Johnson14.9716.3RB6

With Alvin Kamara on a bye this week, Todd Gurley is by far the highest projected RB. There’s a pretty big drop off after Melvin Gordon and Joe Mixon. Mixon is a huge target this week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TEDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Julio Jones19.9717.4WR1
Antonio Brown18.3316.1WR3
Adam Thielen17.2215.2WR4
Davante Adams17.0014.3WR9
Mike Evans16.9014.4WR8
Travis Kelce16.2314.3WR/TE 9
Tyreek Hill16.1414.3WR/TE9
A.J. Green16.1314.2WR11
DeAndre Hopkins15.8317.1WR2
Robert Woods15.1814.6WR6
Cooper Kupp14.0414.8WR5

We have a huge gap between DailyRoto and Draft with DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk and Deshaun Watson are a bit dinged up and the Buffalo defense has actually been very good the past couple of weeks. For some reason, Draft loves Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. You can probably expect that one of them will be drafted by another team, but not both of them even though they’re both projected top 6 on Draft. I think there’s a better chance Davante Adams or Mike Evans are taken ahead of Kupp and/or Woods. Notice the huge drop off between Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and everyone else. Absent Todd Gurley, getting the top WRs early is a huge advantage.

 

[the_ad id=”79528″][the_ad id=”69556″]

 

Drafting in First Position

We’ll start with Todd Gurley and then just wait to see who we get next. Hopefully, we’ll get two of Joe Mixon, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown at the first turn.

YouTeam 2Team 3
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonJulio Jones
Antonio BrownDeAndre HopkinsEzekiel Elliott
Joe MixonChristian McCaffreyDavid Johnson
Davante AdamsCooper KuppAdam Thielen
Tom BradyPatrick MahomesMatt Ryan
DR Total: 99.77DR Total: 88.79DR Total: 95.79
Draft Total: 84.2Draft Total: 88.5Draft Total: 87.7

It’s a nice draft and you have a pretty good advantage over both of your opponents.

Here’s where the counter-intuition comes into play. Tom Brady is DailyRoto’s highest projected QB so we’re going to draft him to maximize our team’s points right? Wrong. We’re not trying to maximize our points, but we are trying to maximize our advantage. Look what happens if we take a slight hit to our total by drafting Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady:

YouTeam 2Team 3
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonJulio Jones
Antonio BrownDeAndre HopkinsEzekiel Elliott
Joe MixonChristian McCaffreyDavid Johnson
Davante AdamsCooper KuppAdam Thielen
Patrick MahomesMatt RyanDeshaun Watson
DR Total: 99.48DR Total: 88.60DR Total: 90.89
Draft Total: 91.1Draft Total: 88.5Draft Total: 87.3

Our total score went down by .29, Team 2 went up by .19, but Team 3 dropped 4.9 points. If you’re last to pick a QB, then go with Tom Brady but if you get the choice, go with Patrick Mahomes or Matt Ryan. It forces your opponent to choose from Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady. It is a bit risky because one of your opponents could then nab Brady, but the advantage you get if Brady isn’t drafted is worth the risk.

By skipping out on Tom Brady, you remove one of the top-scoring QBs and introduce your opponents to QBs with lower projections. This is also why we’d rather draft the top WRs early instead of some of the stud RBs.

Drafting in Second Position

I really don’t like the second position this week. Your draft is mostly dictated by the opponents on either side of you and there’s not a very clear way to extract extra value. Let’s look at a couple options:

Team 1YouTeam 3
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonEzekiel Elliott
Christian McCaffreyJoe MixonJulio Jones
DeAndre HopkinsAntonio BrownDavid Johnson
Cooper KuppDavante AdamsAdam Thielen
Patrick MahomesMatt RyanDeshaun Watson
DR Total: 92.85DR Total: 95.23DR Total: 90.89
Draft Total: 92.6Draft Total: 87.0Draft Total: 87.3

It almost doesn’t matter how you start this draft. I actually choose to start with Melvin Gordon because I think it forces Team 3 into some sort of RB/WR split. The most likely split would be Ezekiel Elliott and Julio Jones leaving you Joe Mixon. If you go Joe Mixon, they almost certainly go Melvin Gordon and then it’s a toss up between Julio Jones or Ezekiel Elliott.

The good thing about this position is the number of mistakes that Team 3 could make. There’s a good chance they take DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, or Christian McCaffrey. Here’s another option:

Team 1YouTeam 3
Todd GurleyJulio JonesMelvin Gordon
Christian McCaffreyAntonio BrownEzekiel Elliott
DeAndre HopkinsPatrick MahomesAdam Thielen
Robert WoodsJoe MixonCooper Kupp
Matt RyanJames ConnerDeshaun Watson
DR Total: 93.80DR Total: 97.11DR Total: 88.41
Draft Total: 92.4Draft Total: 88.1Draft Total: 86.6

This option gives you a path to an advantage, but it’s ultra risky. You get your stud WRs, but you’re pretty much sunk if Team 1 goes for Joe Mixon over Christian McCaffrey. This scenario also assumes Team 1 and Team 3 draft Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.

I think Kupp will be drafted most of the time, but it’s reasonable to assume at least one of the teams will ‘reach’ and draft Davante Adams, Mike Evans, or Tyreek Hill who are all projected higher on DailyRoto instead of the LAR WRs. This will become even more likely as the weather reports come out for the LAR-DEN game where temperatures for that game will likely be in the 20s with flurries in the area. You read that right. Another option is the straightforward approach:

Team 1YouTeam 3
Todd GurleyJoe MixonMelvin Gordon
Christian McCaffreyJulio JonesEzekiel Elliott
DeAndre HopkinsAntonio BrownPatrick Mahomes
Cooper KuppMatt RyanAdam Thielen
Deshaun WatsonJames ConnerRobert Woods
DR Total: 90.76DR Total: 96.92DR Total: 91.64
Draft Total: 92.2Draft Total: 87.0Draft Total: 87.7

We get our stud and no matter what Team 3 does, we’ll get Melvin Gordon, Julio Jones, or Antonio Brown with our second pick. This might be the best mix between risk/reward.

Drafting in the Third Position

Not much to this one:

Team 1Team 2You
Todd GurleyMelvin GordonJulio Jones
DeAndre HopkinsEzekiel ElliottJoe Mixon
Christian McCaffreyAntonio BrownAdam Thielen
Robert WoodsCooper KuppPatrick Mahomes
Matt RyanDeshaun WatsonJames Conner
DR Total: 93.80DR Total: 89.52DR Total: 96.00
Draft Total: 92.4Draft Total: 87.5Draft Total: 87.2

The nice thing is Team 2 is well behind, but there’s no way to manipulate this draft that reduces Team 1’s projection. It’s almost a dead heat between you and Team 1 if they choose Davante Adams over Robert Woods.

Conclusion

It’s going to be a pretty tough week to dominate if you don’t get Todd Gurley with that first pick. Don’t forget that if you prefer a player that’s similarly projected, go with the player you like. Antonio Brown-Julio Jones, Melvin Gordon-Joe Mixon, Mike Evans-Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes-Matt Ryan are pretty close to interchangeable so mix it up.

 

[the_ad id=”80759″][the_ad id=”66090″]

 

Happy Hunting.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

About Gridiron Experts

Established in 2008
Gridiron Experts is a Fantasy Football advisory website providing content and advice to help you win your fantasy league. Nearly all our fantasy experts have over 15+ years of experience. Learn more about our staff here.
Disclaimer:
Gridiron Experts does participate in some select affiliate programs. This means that if you click and/or make a purchase through certain affiliate links on this site, Gridiron Experts may earn a small commission (at no additional cost to you). Gridiron Experts is also a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.

Awards

Fantasy Awards

Copyright© 2021 Gridiron Experts

To Top