DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 6: Three Person Snake Draft Advice

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 6: Three Person Snake Draft Advice 5

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 6 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 6: Three Person Snake Draft Advice 6It’s amazing what happens when you break these drafts down and start to really think about all of the variables. I’ve found at least one edge each week that seems to go against intuition and this week is no different. Let’s take a look at some projections and how we can exploit the Week 6 NFL slate on Draft.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on October 12th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Tom Brady 23.37 20.4 QB5
Patrick Mahomes 23.08 21.7 QB1
Matt Ryan 22.89 21.7 QB1
Aaron Rodgers 22.72 21.2 QB4
Jameis Winston 21.44 19.2 QB9
Deshaun Watson 20.99 21.3 QB3

As far as DailyRoto is concerned, the top four highest projected QBs are a toss-up. The big difference between Draft and DailyRoto is Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. We want to exploit that difference, but maybe not in the way you would expect.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 22.48 22.3 RB1
Joe Mixon 18.59 16.7 RB4
Melvin Gordon 18.42 18.2 RB2
Ezekiel Elliott 17.74 17.1 RB3
Christian McCaffrey 17.42 16.7 RB5
James Conner 17.14 16.2 RB7
T.J. Yeldon 15.06 15.2 RB8
David Johnson 14.97 16.3 RB6

With Alvin Kamara on a bye this week, Todd Gurley is by far the highest projected RB. There’s a pretty big drop off after Melvin Gordon and Joe Mixon. Mixon is a huge target this week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Julio Jones 19.97 17.4 WR1
Antonio Brown 18.33 16.1 WR3
Adam Thielen 17.22 15.2 WR4
Davante Adams 17.00 14.3 WR9
Mike Evans 16.90 14.4 WR8
Travis Kelce 16.23 14.3 WR/TE 9
Tyreek Hill 16.14 14.3 WR/TE9
A.J. Green 16.13 14.2 WR11
DeAndre Hopkins 15.83 17.1 WR2
Robert Woods 15.18 14.6 WR6
Cooper Kupp 14.04 14.8 WR5

We have a huge gap between DailyRoto and Draft with DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk and Deshaun Watson are a bit dinged up and the Buffalo defense has actually been very good the past couple of weeks. For some reason, Draft loves Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. You can probably expect that one of them will be drafted by another team, but not both of them even though they’re both projected top 6 on Draft. I think there’s a better chance Davante Adams or Mike Evans are taken ahead of Kupp and/or Woods. Notice the huge drop off between Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and everyone else. Absent Todd Gurley, getting the top WRs early is a huge advantage.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

We’ll start with Todd Gurley and then just wait to see who we get next. Hopefully, we’ll get two of Joe Mixon, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown at the first turn.

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Julio Jones
Antonio Brown DeAndre Hopkins Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon Christian McCaffrey David Johnson
Davante Adams Cooper Kupp Adam Thielen
Tom Brady Patrick Mahomes Matt Ryan
DR Total: 99.77 DR Total: 88.79 DR Total: 95.79
Draft Total: 84.2 Draft Total: 88.5 Draft Total: 87.7

It’s a nice draft and you have a pretty good advantage over both of your opponents.

Here’s where the counter-intuition comes into play. Tom Brady is DailyRoto’s highest projected QB so we’re going to draft him to maximize our team’s points right? Wrong. We’re not trying to maximize our points, but we are trying to maximize our advantage. Look what happens if we take a slight hit to our total by drafting Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Julio Jones
Antonio Brown DeAndre Hopkins Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon Christian McCaffrey David Johnson
Davante Adams Cooper Kupp Adam Thielen
Patrick Mahomes Matt Ryan Deshaun Watson
DR Total: 99.48 DR Total: 88.60 DR Total: 90.89
Draft Total: 91.1 Draft Total: 88.5 Draft Total: 87.3

Our total score went down by .29, Team 2 went up by .19, but Team 3 dropped 4.9 points. If you’re last to pick a QB, then go with Tom Brady but if you get the choice, go with Patrick Mahomes or Matt Ryan. It forces your opponent to choose from Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady. It is a bit risky because one of your opponents could then nab Brady, but the advantage you get if Brady isn’t drafted is worth the risk.

By skipping out on Tom Brady, you remove one of the top-scoring QBs and introduce your opponents to QBs with lower projections. This is also why we’d rather draft the top WRs early instead of some of the stud RBs.

Drafting in Second Position

I really don’t like the second position this week. Your draft is mostly dictated by the opponents on either side of you and there’s not a very clear way to extract extra value. Let’s look at a couple options:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Ezekiel Elliott
Christian McCaffrey Joe Mixon Julio Jones
DeAndre Hopkins Antonio Brown David Johnson
Cooper Kupp Davante Adams Adam Thielen
Patrick Mahomes Matt Ryan Deshaun Watson
DR Total: 92.85 DR Total: 95.23 DR Total: 90.89
Draft Total: 92.6 Draft Total: 87.0 Draft Total: 87.3

It almost doesn’t matter how you start this draft. I actually choose to start with Melvin Gordon because I think it forces Team 3 into some sort of RB/WR split. The most likely split would be Ezekiel Elliott and Julio Jones leaving you Joe Mixon. If you go Joe Mixon, they almost certainly go Melvin Gordon and then it’s a toss up between Julio Jones or Ezekiel Elliott.

The good thing about this position is the number of mistakes that Team 3 could make. There’s a good chance they take DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, or Christian McCaffrey. Here’s another option:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Julio Jones Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey Antonio Brown Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Patrick Mahomes Adam Thielen
Robert Woods Joe Mixon Cooper Kupp
Matt Ryan James Conner Deshaun Watson
DR Total: 93.80 DR Total: 97.11 DR Total: 88.41
Draft Total: 92.4 Draft Total: 88.1 Draft Total: 86.6

This option gives you a path to an advantage, but it’s ultra risky. You get your stud WRs, but you’re pretty much sunk if Team 1 goes for Joe Mixon over Christian McCaffrey. This scenario also assumes Team 1 and Team 3 draft Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.

I think Kupp will be drafted most of the time, but it’s reasonable to assume at least one of the teams will ‘reach’ and draft Davante Adams, Mike Evans, or Tyreek Hill who are all projected higher on DailyRoto instead of the LAR WRs. This will become even more likely as the weather reports come out for the LAR-DEN game where temperatures for that game will likely be in the 20s with flurries in the area. You read that right. Another option is the straightforward approach:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Joe Mixon Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey Julio Jones Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Antonio Brown Patrick Mahomes
Cooper Kupp Matt Ryan Adam Thielen
Deshaun Watson James Conner Robert Woods
DR Total: 90.76 DR Total: 96.92 DR Total: 91.64
Draft Total: 92.2 Draft Total: 87.0 Draft Total: 87.7

We get our stud and no matter what Team 3 does, we’ll get Melvin Gordon, Julio Jones, or Antonio Brown with our second pick. This might be the best mix between risk/reward.

Drafting in the Third Position

Not much to this one:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Julio Jones
DeAndre Hopkins Ezekiel Elliott Joe Mixon
Christian McCaffrey Antonio Brown Adam Thielen
Robert Woods Cooper Kupp Patrick Mahomes
Matt Ryan Deshaun Watson James Conner
DR Total: 93.80 DR Total: 89.52 DR Total: 96.00
Draft Total: 92.4 Draft Total: 87.5 Draft Total: 87.2

The nice thing is Team 2 is well behind, but there’s no way to manipulate this draft that reduces Team 1’s projection. It’s almost a dead heat between you and Team 1 if they choose Davante Adams over Robert Woods.

Conclusion

It’s going to be a pretty tough week to dominate if you don’t get Todd Gurley with that first pick. Don’t forget that if you prefer a player that’s similarly projected, go with the player you like. Antonio Brown-Julio Jones, Melvin Gordon-Joe Mixon, Mike Evans-Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes-Matt Ryan are pretty close to interchangeable so mix it up.

 

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Happy Hunting.

About the author

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Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

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