Gridiron Experts
Home | Daily Fantasy | DRAFT | DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 5: Three Person Snake Draft Advice

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 5: Three Person Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 5 (Sun-Mon Slate)

These drafts have been a lot of fun and profitable for the first four weeks. This week is going to be really interesting because of all the scoring expected in the ATL-PIT game. You can expect 5-6 players from that game alone to be drafted in these three-person snake drafts.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on October 5th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Ben Roethlisberger 22.41 21.4 QB2
Aaron Rodgers 22.08 19.5 QB6
Drew Brees 21.8 19.5 QB8
Cam Newton 21.5 20.6 QB3
Deshaun Watson 20.98 21.5 QB1
Matt Ryan 20.82 19.9 QB4

It looks like rankings are all over the place, but there’s only a 2.59 point difference between DailyRoto’s top projected QB and sixth-ranked QB. You can pretty much play the QB of your choice and it may actually make sense not to draft Ben Roethlisberger even if you have top QB choice.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 22.49 21.4 RB1
Melvin Gordon 21.38 19.4 RB3
Christian McCaffrey 20.55 19.4 RB3
Alvin Kamara 19.79 19.7 RB2
Ezekiel Elliott 19.5 16 RB7
James Conner 19.03 15.6 RB9
Saquon Barkley 17.74 17.9 RB5
David Johnson 16.46 17.3 RB6
T.J. Yeldon 15.01 15.8 RB8

Todd Gurley is the man. Draft him early and often. I have loved Kamara for the past few weeks, but he takes a bit of a backseat in DailyRoto projections this week with Melvin Gordon and Christian McCaffrey in smash spots. You’re going to end up with a lot of Ezekiel Elliott and James Conner.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

WR/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Antonio Brown 19.39 16.1 WR2
Julio Jones 18.93 16.1 WR1
Michael Thomas 18.88 15.9 WR3
JuJu Smith-Schuster 17.51 14.7 WR6
A.J. Green 16.67 12.9 WR11
Adam Thielen 16.32 14.2 WR9
Keenan Allen 16.16 14.6 WR7
Odell Beckham Jr 16.11 14.1 WR10
DeAndre Hopkins 15.67 15.5 WR4
Cooper Kupp 12.57 14.6 WR8
Tyreek Hill 13.79 15.2 WR5

Here’s where we can get the most separation from the competition. We have three absolutely elite WRs and then the rest of the field. Note that JuJu Smith-Schuster is top 6 in both Draft’s and DailyRoto’s projections along with Antonio Brown. This comes into play especially if you’re drafting in the third spot.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

This spot is far more straightforward than in weeks past. You’re going to draft Todd Gurley and then pick up whichever stud WRs and RBs fall back to you. It’s simply a great week to draft in the first spot. Here’s what it will probably look like:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara Melvin Gordon
Michael Thomas Christian McCaffrey Antonio Brown
Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins Ezekiel Elliott
James Conner JuJu Smith-Schuster Tyreek Hill
Ben Roethlisberger Deshaun Watson Cam Newton
DR Total: 101.74 DR Total: 94.50 DR Total: 95.56
Draft Total: 95.56 Draft Total: 90.8 Draft Total: 87.3

The only real question is Christian McCaffrey. He may fall back to you instead of two of those stud WRs. If that happens, you’re probably drafting JuJu Smith-Schuster instead of James Conner.

Drafting in Second Position

This spot is far more tricky than the first spot. In week’s past, it made sense to start with a choice WR where RBs were grouped. I’m not sure I love it this week:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Antonio Brown Alvin Kamara
Michael Thomas Christian McCaffrey Melvin Gordon
Saquon Barkley Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins
Deshaun Watson Ben Roethlisberger Tyreek Hill
Juju Smith Schuster Ezekiel Elliott Cam Newton
DR Total: 97.60 DR Total: 100.78 DR Total: 92.13
Draft Total: 91.4 Draft Total: 89.0 Draft Total: 90.4

It’s fine. You still get a nice little scoring advantage. Let’s try starting with a stud RB:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Alvin Kamara
Saquon Barkley Antonio Brown Christian McCaffrey
Julio Jones Michael Thomas DeAndre Hopkins
Juju Smith Schuster Ben Roethlisberger Tyreek Hill
Deshaun Watson Ezekiel Elliott Cam Newton
DR Total: 97.65 DR Total: 101.56 DR Total: 91.3
Draft Total: 91.6 Draft Total: 88.8 Draft Total: 90.4

This is a bit better. You could also start Alvin Kamara, but that’s going to end up benefiting Team 1 quite a bit because they’ll almost certainly get two stud WRs. I’d much rather have them make a mistake and grab someone like Barkley or maybe David Johnson at the turn than two stud WRs.

Drafting in the Third Position

The third position is tough this week. No matter what you do, Team 1 and Team 2 will land a lot of very good players. You’ll also see where we get stuck with a lot of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Conner. We like getting players from that game, but maybe not all of them on the same team. You’re sunk if Pittsburgh struggles for some reason and even if the put up a lot of points, someone from that team will disappoint. Here’s what it looks like:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara Melvin Gordon
Saquon Barkley Julio Jones Christian McCaffrey
Antonio Brown Michael Thomas Ben Roethlisberger
DeAndre Hopkins David Johnson Juju Smith-Schuster
Deshaun Watson Cam Newton A.J. Green
DR Total: 96.27 DR Total: 95.56 DR Total: 98.52
Draft Total: 92.4 Draft Total: 89.6 Draft Total: 87.8

I don’t like three-way races. This was also the problem starting with Kamara in second position. Let’s try again:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara Antonio Brown
Christian McCaffrey Melvin Gordon Julio Jones
Michael Thomas DeAndre Hopkins Ben Roethlisberger
JuJu Smith-Schuster Tyreek Hill Ezekiel Elliott
Deshaun Watson Cam Newton James Conner
DR Total: 100.41 DR Total: 92.1 DR Total: 99.30
Draft Total: 92.9 Draft Total: 90.4 Draft Total: 85.2

Going WR-WR worked really well in weeks past, but it’s pretty week here. I still like this better than starting with two RBs since it’s essentially a tie between you and Team 1, but it’s far from ideal. Let’s try again:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara Antonio Brown
Julio Jones Christian McCaffrey Melvin Gordon
Michael Thomas DeAndre Hopkins Ezekiel Elliott
Saquon Barkley Deshaun Watson Ben Roethlisberger
Cam Newton Tyreek Hill JuJu Smith-Schuster
DR Total: 99.54 DR Total: 90.78 DR Total: 100.19
Draft Total: 91.9 Draft Total: 91.3 Draft Total: 87.6

And here’s the rub with the third position. We gave our self a little advantage and basically eliminated one team, but we have Antonio Brown, JuJuSmith-Schuster, and Ben Roethlisberger all on one team. Worse still, if Team 1 drafts Ezekiel Elliott instead of Julio Jones or Michael Thomas, Team 2 improves with a stud WR, and we end up with James Conner.

I don’t love it, but WR-WR may still be the best strategy. I’d probably change it up a bit and get Michael Thomas and Julio Jones instead of AB just to avoid the PIT super stack. You could also be aggressive and draft Drew Brees to stack with Michael Thomas and grab James Conner as a hedge against the ATL-PIT game. It’s one of those deals where if I drafted twice from the same position, I would switch it up just to spread out the strategy a little.

Conclusion

This is definitely the week to draft early, but there’s plenty of spots to gain an advantage. Take a look at some of those projections and don’t be afraid to pivot to another similarly projected player.  Happy Hunting.

 

 

Thanks for Reading

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

Add comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Pay Per Head

Fantasy Football T-Shirts

Fantasy Football T-Shirts