Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 14 (Sat-Mon Slate)

DRAFTIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

We weren’t a big fan of Todd Gurley last week and, sure enough, he disappointed against Chicago. The problem last week was Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster blew up, but Brown didn’t do much with the seven targets he received. It was a mixed bag, but it should have been a break-even week. I like this week’s slate much better.

Keep in mind there are a couple games this Saturday, but most of these scenarios will still be relevant after those games. Only DeAndre Hopkins and Phillip Lindsay play on Saturday, but we aren’t targeting them anyways. Your advantage only increases after those games.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on December 13th for the Sat-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Jared Goff 21.97 19.6 6
Ben Roethlisberger 21.34 20.3 3
Lamar Jackson 21.29 20.5 1
Andrew Luck 20.44 20.5 1
Cam Newton 20.63 20.3 3

When DailyRoto and Draft rankings don’t line up, good things happen. Jared Goff is a freebie this week. We don’t necessarily dislike the top QB options on Draft, but you can pick and choose your QB at will. I love Patrick Mahomes, but there’s a pressure to draft him in the first half of drafts he’s in. With the KC game already played this week, there’s no reason to reach for a QB.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 23.54 20.4 2
Ezekiel Elliott 22.43 19.7 4
Saquon Barkley 21.56 20.9 1
Christian McCaffrey 21.53 20.2 3
Nick Chubb 18.10 15.0 9
Joe Mixon 18.01 15.8 6
Phillip Lindsay 15.30 16.4 5

Phillip Lindsay and Nick Chubb are flip-flopped between DailyRoto and Draft, but the projections on both sites are pretty close otherwise. Like Goff, Chubb(or Joe Mixon) is a late-round freebie. Notice a distinct tier drop between Gurley-McCaffrey and everyone else. We’re going to need to pick a top-tier RB with our first pick regardless of draft position.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
JuJu Smith-Schuster 17.54 15.6 3
Michael Thomas 17.31 15.8 2
DeAndre Hopkins 16.56 15.4 5
Davante Adams 16.01 15.6 3
Robert Woods 16.01 12.9 15
Julio Jones 15.66 16.1 1
Adam Thielen 15.61 15.0 6

Robert Woods should stick out. He’s nice to have if you need a WR late, but we want to force our opponents to draft Adam Thielen so this is a good week to get a couple stud WRs early. It’s still a week where the WRs are very tightly projected. Feel free to substitute whichever WR you like or just switch up WRs to create different exposures if you do a lot of these drafts.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Christian McCaffrey
JuJu Smith-Schuster Julio Jones Ezekiel Elliott
Michael Thomas Davante Adams DeAndre Hopkins
Nick Chubb Phillip Lindsay Adam Thielen
Jared Goff Andrew Luck Lamar Jackson
DR Total: 98.46 DR Total: 88.97 DR Total: 97.42
Draft Total: 86.4 Draft Total: 89.5 Draft Total: 90.8

The good news is, the draft just comes to you from First Position, but the bad news is there isn’t really a whole lot of choice about many of your picks. We like Todd Gurley this week, but you can take any of those top tier RBs. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas should be there for our first turn. It’s just filling in with our freebie QB and RB after your first few picks.

I know it stinks not to have an absolutely dominant team with the first pick, but this is basically a two-team race between you and Team 3. Anything approaching a 50% win rate is very profitable.

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1 You Team 3
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Christian McCaffrey
Julio Jones Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
JuJu Smith-Schuster DeAndre Hopkins Davante Adams
Phillip Lindsay Jared Goff Andrew Luck
Lamar Jackson Nick Chubb Adam Thielen
DR Total: 91.35 DR Total: 97.48 DR Total: 96.02
Draft Total: 89.5 Draft Total: 86.2 Draft Total: 91.0

I’m pretty certain those top-tier RBs will be scooped up with the first four picks, but there’s always a chance Team 1 or Team 2 does something weird and one of those RBs falls to you with the second pick. Even if that doesn’t happen, you still end up with a good team. This is actually something of a worst-case scenario. Even though JuJu Smith-Schuster is projected for more than Michael Thomas, I picked Thomas second. I think there is a better chance Smith-Schuster falls to us with the third pick than Thomas. Let’s take a look:

Team 1 You Team 3
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Christian McCaffrey
Julio Jones Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
Davante Adams JuJu Smith-Schuster DeAndre Hopkins
Phillip Lindsay Jared Goff Andrew Luck
Lamar Jackson Nick Chubb Adam Thielen
DR Total: 89.82 DR Total: 98.46 DR Total: 96.57
Draft Total: 89.5 Draft Total: 86.4 Draft Total: 90.8

JuJu Smith-Schuster and Davante Adams are projected for the same on Draft. I’m guessing Team 1 will draft Adams over Smith-Schuster most of the time. Notice that this team is exactly the same one we drafted from First Position. I think there’s also a chance Team 1 picks Phillip Lindsay at the turn. Here’s what that looks like:

Team 1 You Team 3
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Christian McCaffrey
Julio Jones Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
Phillip Lindsay JuJu Smith-Schuster Davante Adams
Adam Thielen Nick Chubb DeAndre Hopkins
Andrew Luck Jared Goff Lamar Jackson
DR Total: 88.57 DR Total: 98.46 DR Total: 97.82
Draft Total: 88.9 Draft Total: 86.4 Draft Total: 91.4

Our team remains the same, but points are distributed a little differently between Team 1 and Team 3. This is why I think you’re more likely to get JuJu Smith-Schuster than Michael Thomas with your third pick. I worry that Team 1 will draft Thomas at the turn almost every time.

Drafting in the Third Position

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Ezekiel Elliott
Davante Adams Julio Jones Christian McCaffrey
Michael Thomas JuJu Smith-Schuster DeAndre Hopkins
Joe Mixon Phillip Lindsay Jared Goff
Andrew Luck Lamar Jackson Robert Woods
DR Total: 93.33 DR Total: 93.33 DR Total: 98.5
Draft Total: 88.60 Draft Total: 89.0 Draft Total:87.8

This may be the one time we use Robert Woods. There’s a chance JuJu Smith-Schuster and/or Michael Thomas falls to us for our third pick, but I think Team 1 and Team 2 will focus on WRs after the First Round. I still like the Third Position. Team 1 and Team 2 end up with the same projection, but you get an edge on both of them. I played with the scenario to see what would happen if we didn’t start RB-RB, but it didn’t work out to well. Here’s what it looks like if we go RB-WR at the first turn:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Ezekiel Elliott
Julio Jones Christian McCaffrey Michael Thomas
Davante Adams JuJu Smith Schuster DeAndre Hopkins
Phillip Lindsay Andrew Luck Nick Chubb
Lamar Jackson Adam Thielen Jared Goff
DR Total: 89.82 DR Total: 98.66 DR Total: 96.37
Draft Total: 89.5 Draft Total: 91.7 Draft Total: 85.5

I experimented going with Michael Thomas first hoping JuJu Smith-Schuster, but I think Smith-Schuster still gets drafted before he gets back to us. It’s not a big difference in projections if you draft Smith-Schuster instead of Thomas. It’s just too difficult if you basically gift Team 2 two top tier RBs and an early WR.

The good thing about doing this little thought experiment from the Third Position is to see the possibilities if you’re in Second Position and a top RB falls to you. You will get two top-tier RBs and your top WR. Team two’s 98.66 points is the top projection in this scenario, but if your last two picks were Jared Goff and Robert Woods your projection would be 100.59 points. 100 points is probably going to enough to win most drafts this week.

Conclusion

I really like the opportunities we have this week. With KC and LAC playing on Thursday a lot of the stud players like Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen that dictate most drafts are out. Because those studs are out, lower projected players start to creep into the lineups of your opponents. Feel free to mix up your WRs as you like and you’ll probably want to mix in some different players if you’re drafting Todd Gurley and Jared Goff in almost every draft.

 

 

Good Luck!