Daily Fantasy

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 15: Snake Draft Advice

Joe Mixon Fantasy

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 14 (Sat-Mon Slate)

DRAFTIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

We weren’t a big fan of Todd Gurley last week and, sure enough, he disappointed against Chicago. The problem last week was Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster blew up, but Brown didn’t do much with the seven targets he received. It was a mixed bag, but it should have been a break-even week. I like this week’s slate much better.

Keep in mind there are a couple games this Saturday, but most of these scenarios will still be relevant after those games. Only DeAndre Hopkins and Phillip Lindsay play on Saturday, but we aren’t targeting them anyways. Your advantage only increases after those games.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on December 13th for the Sat-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

QuarterbacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Jared Goff21.9719.66
Ben Roethlisberger21.3420.33
Lamar Jackson21.2920.51
Andrew Luck20.4420.51
Cam Newton20.6320.33

When DailyRoto and Draft rankings don’t line up, good things happen. Jared Goff is a freebie this week. We don’t necessarily dislike the top QB options on Draft, but you can pick and choose your QB at will. I love Patrick Mahomes, but there’s a pressure to draft him in the first half of drafts he’s in. With the KC game already played this week, there’s no reason to reach for a QB.

Running Backs

Running BacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Todd Gurley23.5420.42
Ezekiel Elliott22.4319.74
Saquon Barkley21.5620.91
Christian McCaffrey21.5320.23
Nick Chubb18.1015.09
Joe Mixon18.0115.86
Phillip Lindsay15.3016.45

Phillip Lindsay and Nick Chubb are flip-flopped between DailyRoto and Draft, but the projections on both sites are pretty close otherwise. Like Goff, Chubb(or Joe Mixon) is a late-round freebie. Notice a distinct tier drop between Gurley-McCaffrey and everyone else. We’re going to need to pick a top-tier RB with our first pick regardless of draft position.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TEDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
JuJu Smith-Schuster17.5415.63
Michael Thomas17.3115.82
DeAndre Hopkins16.5615.45
Davante Adams16.0115.63
Robert Woods16.0112.915
Julio Jones15.6616.11
Adam Thielen15.6115.06

Robert Woods should stick out. He’s nice to have if you need a WR late, but we want to force our opponents to draft Adam Thielen so this is a good week to get a couple stud WRs early. It’s still a week where the WRs are very tightly projected. Feel free to substitute whichever WR you like or just switch up WRs to create different exposures if you do a lot of these drafts.

 

[the_ad id=”79528″][the_ad id=”69556″]

 

Drafting in First Position

YouTeam 2Team 3
Todd GurleySaquon BarkleyChristian McCaffrey
JuJu Smith-SchusterJulio JonesEzekiel Elliott
Michael ThomasDavante AdamsDeAndre Hopkins
Nick ChubbPhillip LindsayAdam Thielen
Jared GoffAndrew LuckLamar Jackson
DR Total: 98.46DR Total: 88.97DR Total: 97.42
Draft Total: 86.4Draft Total: 89.5Draft Total: 90.8

The good news is, the draft just comes to you from First Position, but the bad news is there isn’t really a whole lot of choice about many of your picks. We like Todd Gurley this week, but you can take any of those top tier RBs. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas should be there for our first turn. It’s just filling in with our freebie QB and RB after your first few picks.

I know it stinks not to have an absolutely dominant team with the first pick, but this is basically a two-team race between you and Team 3. Anything approaching a 50% win rate is very profitable.

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1YouTeam 3
Saquon BarkleyTodd GurleyChristian McCaffrey
Julio JonesMichael ThomasEzekiel Elliott
JuJu Smith-SchusterDeAndre HopkinsDavante Adams
Phillip LindsayJared GoffAndrew Luck
Lamar JacksonNick ChubbAdam Thielen
DR Total: 91.35DR Total: 97.48DR Total: 96.02
Draft Total: 89.5Draft Total: 86.2Draft Total: 91.0

I’m pretty certain those top-tier RBs will be scooped up with the first four picks, but there’s always a chance Team 1 or Team 2 does something weird and one of those RBs falls to you with the second pick. Even if that doesn’t happen, you still end up with a good team. This is actually something of a worst-case scenario. Even though JuJu Smith-Schuster is projected for more than Michael Thomas, I picked Thomas second. I think there is a better chance Smith-Schuster falls to us with the third pick than Thomas. Let’s take a look:

Team 1YouTeam 3
Saquon BarkleyTodd GurleyChristian McCaffrey
Julio JonesMichael ThomasEzekiel Elliott
Davante AdamsJuJu Smith-SchusterDeAndre Hopkins
Phillip LindsayJared GoffAndrew Luck
Lamar JacksonNick ChubbAdam Thielen
DR Total: 89.82DR Total: 98.46DR Total: 96.57
Draft Total: 89.5Draft Total: 86.4Draft Total: 90.8

JuJu Smith-Schuster and Davante Adams are projected for the same on Draft. I’m guessing Team 1 will draft Adams over Smith-Schuster most of the time. Notice that this team is exactly the same one we drafted from First Position. I think there’s also a chance Team 1 picks Phillip Lindsay at the turn. Here’s what that looks like:

Team 1YouTeam 3
Saquon BarkleyTodd GurleyChristian McCaffrey
Julio JonesMichael ThomasEzekiel Elliott
Phillip LindsayJuJu Smith-SchusterDavante Adams
Adam ThielenNick ChubbDeAndre Hopkins
Andrew LuckJared GoffLamar Jackson
DR Total: 88.57DR Total: 98.46DR Total: 97.82
Draft Total: 88.9Draft Total: 86.4Draft Total: 91.4

Our team remains the same, but points are distributed a little differently between Team 1 and Team 3. This is why I think you’re more likely to get JuJu Smith-Schuster than Michael Thomas with your third pick. I worry that Team 1 will draft Thomas at the turn almost every time.

Drafting in the Third Position

Team 1Team 2You
Saquon BarkleyTodd GurleyEzekiel Elliott
Davante AdamsJulio JonesChristian McCaffrey
Michael ThomasJuJu Smith-SchusterDeAndre Hopkins
Joe MixonPhillip LindsayJared Goff
Andrew LuckLamar JacksonRobert Woods
DR Total: 93.33DR Total: 93.33DR Total: 98.5
Draft Total: 88.60Draft Total: 89.0Draft Total:87.8

This may be the one time we use Robert Woods. There’s a chance JuJu Smith-Schuster and/or Michael Thomas falls to us for our third pick, but I think Team 1 and Team 2 will focus on WRs after the First Round. I still like the Third Position. Team 1 and Team 2 end up with the same projection, but you get an edge on both of them. I played with the scenario to see what would happen if we didn’t start RB-RB, but it didn’t work out to well. Here’s what it looks like if we go RB-WR at the first turn:

Team 1Team 2You
Saquon BarkleyTodd GurleyEzekiel Elliott
Julio JonesChristian McCaffreyMichael Thomas
Davante AdamsJuJu Smith SchusterDeAndre Hopkins
Phillip LindsayAndrew LuckNick Chubb
Lamar JacksonAdam ThielenJared Goff
DR Total: 89.82DR Total: 98.66DR Total: 96.37
Draft Total: 89.5Draft Total: 91.7Draft Total: 85.5

I experimented going with Michael Thomas first hoping JuJu Smith-Schuster, but I think Smith-Schuster still gets drafted before he gets back to us. It’s not a big difference in projections if you draft Smith-Schuster instead of Thomas. It’s just too difficult if you basically gift Team 2 two top tier RBs and an early WR.

The good thing about doing this little thought experiment from the Third Position is to see the possibilities if you’re in Second Position and a top RB falls to you. You will get two top-tier RBs and your top WR. Team two’s 98.66 points is the top projection in this scenario, but if your last two picks were Jared Goff and Robert Woods your projection would be 100.59 points. 100 points is probably going to enough to win most drafts this week.

Conclusion

I really like the opportunities we have this week. With KC and LAC playing on Thursday a lot of the stud players like Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen that dictate most drafts are out. Because those studs are out, lower projected players start to creep into the lineups of your opponents. Feel free to mix up your WRs as you like and you’ll probably want to mix in some different players if you’re drafting Todd Gurley and Jared Goff in almost every draft.

 

[the_ad id=”80759″][the_ad id=”66090″]

 

Good Luck!

 

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

About Gridiron Experts

Established in 2008
Gridiron Experts is a Fantasy Football advisory website providing content and advice to help you win your fantasy league. Nearly all our fantasy experts have over 15+ years of experience. Learn more about our staff here.

Awards

Fantasy Awards

Copyright© 2021 Gridiron Experts

To Top