Gridiron Experts

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 14: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 14 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFTIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Sometimes timing is everything. Last week’s article was written and published just as the video was released of Kareem Hunt assaulting a woman in a hotel. With that news, Travis Kelce’s projection skyrocketed and Philip Lindsay became playable. Both players smashed last week, but we weren’t targeting them while Hunt was in play. Hopefully, this week works out better.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on December 6th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Patrick Mahomes 23.63 22.4 1
Ben Roethlisberger 22.89 20.3 7
Aaron Rodgers 22.44 20.5 3
Jameis Winston 21.73 21.3 2

We always love to get Patrick Mahomes, but Ben Roethlisberger will be free this week in a great matchup against Oakland. It is an away game for Big Ben, but it’s Oakland. Both sites like Aaron Rodgers and Jameis Winston. It’s going to be really interesting to see how the GB offense looks with Mike McCarthy no longer calling the plays.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Christian McCaffrey 23.29 22.9 1
Saquon Barkley 22.08 21.0 2
Ezekiel Elliott 21.80 19.7 3
Todd Gurley 21.17 19.6 4
Alvin Kamara 18.73 17.2 6
Aaron Jones 18.17 17.3 5

DailyRoto and Draft projection ranks are nearly identical. There is a pretty big drop off between Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara/Aaron Jones. I expect to see those first four RBs go with the first four picks in most drafts.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Keenan Allen 19.47 17.1 1
Davante Adams 18.43 16.4 2
DeAndre Hopkins 17.60 15.7 4
Antonio Brown 17.44 15.4 6
Tyreek Hill 17.28 15.4 6
Michael Thomas 17.25 15.5 5
Julio Jones 15.97 15.9 3

Julio Jones should jump off the page. DailyRoto may not be high on him because Matt Ryan is significantly better while playing in domes. Ryan and Jones will be playing in Green Bay with temperatures in the low 20s. Hopkins, Brown, Hill, and Thomas are virtually interchangeable. I think this is a good week to stack QB-WR. There are no clear advantages. I’d much rather stack a QB-WR to maximize the points potential than spread it out to mitigate risk.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

You Team 2 Team 3
Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Keenan Allen Aaron Jones Todd Gurley
Patrick Mahomes Davante Adams Julio Jones
Antonio Brown Michael Thomas DeAndre Hopkins
Alvin Kamara Jameis Winston Aaron Rodgers
DR Total: 102.56 DR Total: 97.66 DR Total: 98.98
Draft Total: 95.0 Draft Total: 91.5 Draft Total: 91.4

I drafted Antonio Brown in this one, but you could easily put Tyreek Hill in to get that stack with Patrick Mahomes. There’s really not too much to think about in the first position. You might have to change your plans if Team 2 drafts Keenan Allen or Mahomes, but the decisions you make should be easy.

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1 You Team 3
Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Aaron Jones Keenan Allen Todd Gurley
Patrick Mahomes Antonio Brown Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins Ben Roethlisberger Julio Jones
Michael Thomas Alvin Kamara Jameis Winston
DR Total: 99.94 DR Total: 100.61 DR Total: 99.10
Draft Total: 93.8 Draft Total: 91.0 Draft Total: 92.9

You miss out on Mahomes, but you get that stack with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. This is a three-person race. I looked at taking Mahomes second, but it’s actually worse:

Team 1 You Team 3
Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Keenan Allen Patrick Mahomes Todd Gurley
Davante Adams Antonio Brown Julio Jones
Aaron Jones Tyreek Hill DeAndre Hopkins
Jameis Winston Alvin Kamara Aaron Rodgers
DR Total: 101.09 DR Total: 99.16 DR Total: 98.98
Draft Total: 95.0 Draft Total: 91.4 Draft Total: 91.4

If you want to play it ultra aggressive you could draft Mahomes second and stack him with Hill and Travis Kelce. I think KC will try to get Mahomes the single-season TD record so it might work if Mahomes does throw for four or more TDs.

Drafting in the Third Position

You’re not going to get a very big edge drafting third, but I like the ways you can mix up your draft strategy. The most obvious start is to go RB-RB:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Keenan Allen Aaron Jones Todd Gurley
Patrick Mahomes Davante Adams DeAndre Hopkins
Tyreek Hill Michael Thomas Antonio Brown
Alvin Kamara Jameis Winston Ben Roethlisberger
DR Total: 102.40 DR Total: 97.66 DR Total: 100.90
Draft Total: 95.0 Draft Total: 91.5 Draft Total: 90.7

Drafting RB-WR is a surprisingly good option:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Patrick Mahomes Todd Gurley Keenan Allen
Davante Adams Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins
Antonio Brown Michael Thomas Alvin Kamara
Aaron Jones Jameis Winston Ben Roethlisberger
DR Total: 100.96 DR Total: 98.20 DR Total: 100.49
Draft Total: 94.4 Draft Total: 93.3 Draft Total: 90.0

We talked about the KC super stack with Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, but you can do something similar with NO:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Ezekiel Elliott
Patrick Mahomes Todd Gurley Keenan Allen
Davante Adams Julio Jones Michael Thomas
Antonio Brown DeAndre Hopkins Alvin Kamara
Aaron Jones Jameis Winston Drew Brees
DR Total: 100.96 DR Total: 98.55 DR Total: 97.63
Draft Total: 94.4 Draft Total: 93.5 Draft Total: 90.0

I think Brees, Thomas, and Kamara are going to bounce back against a terrible TB defense after being embarrassed last week in Dallas. This is just one of those weeks you’re going to have to do something creative to take a few of these drafts down.

Conclusion

It would be great to get Patrick Mahomes, but you can draft Roethlisberger at will and pair him with Antonio Brown. Keenan Allen is a priority target while the rest of the WRs are pretty closely projected. I think this is a week where you’re going to want to stack QBs and WRs even if it means drafting a player off the radar like Drew Brees. Have fun this week and I hope you advance if you’re in the playoffs.

Good Luck

 

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

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