Daily Fantasy

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 13: Snake Draft Advice

James Conner Fantasy

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 13 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFTIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Christian McCaffrey performance in Week 12 was so dominant that it was pretty difficult to win without him in your lineup. Our other problem last week was the focus on Odell Beckham Jr and James Conner who disappointed and didn’t 15+ points we needed. It was simply one of those tough weeks, but if you’ve been following this series we’ve been crushing most weeks so let’s dig into Week 13.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 29th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

QuarterbacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Patrick Mahomes26.5522.42
Cam Newton24.4122.51
Jared Goff23.0420.45
Jameis Winston22.3821.73

Patrick Mahomes sits atop the DailyRoto projections again, but any of these top four QBs could have a huge week so it’s not the end of the world if we don’t get them. This leads to an interesting option from a team construction standpoint.

Since Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are also projected for a huge week, you have the option to stack KC players. I like the idea of stacking Mahomes with Hunt. The KC game against OAK could turn into a blowout in which Mahomes gets more or less shut down. Stacking Hunt with Mahomes hedges against that a little.

Running Backs

Running BacksDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Todd Gurley25.2820.42
Christian McCaffrey24.8421.51
Aaron Jones21.1617.46
Kareem Hunt21.0418.24
James Conner20.1117.37
Saquon Barkley19.5420.03
David Johnson16.4117.95

Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey sit atop the projections for both Draft and DailyRoto. They’re basically in a tier to themselves so feel free to take McCaffrey over Gurley if you like him more or to diversify your lineups. The freebie play this week is Aaron Jones. He’s DailyRoto’s third highest projected RB ahead of Kareem Hunt by a little. He’s going to be in a lot of our lineups unless the other drafters do something weird. It will be hard to trust James Conner after a couple of disappointing weeks but he’s going to be available late if we need a cheap option.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TEDailyRotoDraftDraft Rank
Tyreek Hill19.9116.72
DeAndre Hopkins18.6616.43
Keenan Allen17.5416.05
Adam Thielen17.0416.34
Brandin Cooks17.0014.97
Travis Kelce16.9714.78
Davante Adams16.8115.56
Julio Jones15.6817.51

A couple things to note here. Draft likes Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins, but not as much as DailyRoto. We’re probably going to draft an RB with our first pick, but we’re going to start drafting WRs before our opponents. DailyRoto does not like Julio Jones nearly as much as Draft. He has an extremely tough matchup against Baltimore so I’m not a big fan of him this week, but it will be interesting to see if ‘defenses matter’ against him. The other WRs and Travis Kelce are grouped pretty tightly. There’s no reason to reach for any of those second-tier guys though I do like Adam Thielen this week against New England and with or without a banged up Stefon Diggs.

 

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Drafting in First Position

Your first pick can be Todd Gurley or Christian McCaffrey. I suspect your other two opponents will both draft RB-RB.

YouTeam 2Team 3
Todd GurleyChristian McCaffreySaquon Barkley
DeAndre HopkinsDavid JohnsonKareem Hunt
Tyreek HillJulio JonesAdam Thielen
Aaron JonesCam NewtonKeenan Allen
Patrick MahomesDavante AdamsJameis Winston
DR Total: 111.56DR Total: 98.15DR Total: 97.54
Draft Total: 93.30Draft Total: 94.90Draft Total: 92.20

I doubt Mahomes makes it all the way back to us, but there’s no reason to reach for him if we can draft our top two WRs. If you wanted to be ultra aggressive with the KC players, you could draft Mahomes instead of Hopkins, and make Travis Kelce your last pick but I like spreading it out more. I’m not sure there are many other draft options from this position. You’re just going to scoop up the value with each pick.

Drafting in Second Position

This team will look familiar:

Team 1YouTeam 3
Christian McCaffreyTodd GurleySaquon Barkley
David JohnsonTyreek HillKareem Hunt
Julio JonesDeAndre HopkinsAdam Thielen
Cam NewtonPatrick MahomesKeenan Allen
Davante AdamsAaron JonesJared Goff
DR Total: 98.15DR Total: 111.56DR Total: 98.20
Draft Total: 94.90Draft Total: 93.30Draft Total: 90.90

I think there’s probably a 60% chance Team 1 takes Todd Gurley even though Draft has McCaffrey projected slightly higher. We like both RBs so it doesn’t really matter. I think there’s actually a better chance we land Patrick Mahomes in this draft position than the first position. I would take Kareem Hunt second if he happens to fall, but I think he’s going to be drafted by Team 3 at the turn almost every time.

Drafting in the Third Position

The first two positions are pretty straightforward, but drafting in third position is a bit tricky. Earlier in the year we had a week where drafting WR-WR from third position worked really well since the stud RBs were drafted and we could find RB value later, but it’s a lukewarm option this week:

Team 1Team 2You
Christian McCaffreyTodd GurleyTyreek Hill
Kareem HuntSaquon BarkleyDeAndre Hopkins
Julio JonesAdam ThielenPatrick Mahomes
Davante AdamsKeenan AllenAaron Jones
Cam NewtonJameis WinstonJames Conner
DR Total: 102.78DR Total: 101.78DR Total: 106.39
Draft Total: 95.20Draft Total: 94.40Draft Total: 90.20

We still have an advantage, but it’s slim. This just seems like an ultra risky lineup.

Team 1Team 2You
Christian McCaffreyTodd GurleyKareem Hunt
David JohnsonSaquon BarkleyTyreek Hill
Julio JonesDeAndre HopkinsKeenan Allen
Cam NewtonAdam ThielenPatrick Mahomes
Davante AdamsJameis WinstonAaron Jones
DR Total: 98.15DR Total: 102.90DR Total: 106.20
Draft Total: 94.90Draft Total: 94.80Draft Total: 90.70

This is a bit of a better advantage. We’re deeply committed to KC players but they’re coming off of a bye and playing one of, if not the weakest team in the NFL. They could easily put up 30+ offensive points in the first half.

If you’re going to diversify your teams I think this is the best place to do it. We’re not targeting Saquon Barkley or James Conner very much, but this would be a good position to target one of them. Same goes for the WRs behind Hill and Hopkins. This would be a great spot to reach a little and draft Adam Thielen, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, or Julio Jones. Don’t be afraid to stack these WRs with their respective QB.

Conclusion

Aaron Jones and the KC players (sounds like a 70s disco band) will be key to profiting this week. If you draft multiple times from the third position, use it to diversify your RBs and WRs. I know we targeted Patrick Mahomes a lot this week. In theory, he should drop to us, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets drafted by another team earlier than expected. There are plenty of good QB options at the top so don’t worry about it if he’s not on your team. Get some wins this week!

 

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Good Luck

 

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