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James Conner Fantasy

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 13: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 13 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFTIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Christian McCaffrey performance in Week 12 was so dominant that it was pretty difficult to win without him in your lineup. Our other problem last week was the focus on Odell Beckham Jr and James Conner who disappointed and didn’t 15+ points we needed. It was simply one of those tough weeks, but if you’ve been following this series we’ve been crushing most weeks so let’s dig into Week 13.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 29th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Patrick Mahomes 26.55 22.4 2
Cam Newton 24.41 22.5 1
Jared Goff 23.04 20.4 5
Jameis Winston 22.38 21.7 3

Patrick Mahomes sits atop the DailyRoto projections again, but any of these top four QBs could have a huge week so it’s not the end of the world if we don’t get them. This leads to an interesting option from a team construction standpoint.

Since Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are also projected for a huge week, you have the option to stack KC players. I like the idea of stacking Mahomes with Hunt. The KC game against OAK could turn into a blowout in which Mahomes gets more or less shut down. Stacking Hunt with Mahomes hedges against that a little.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 25.28 20.4 2
Christian McCaffrey 24.84 21.5 1
Aaron Jones 21.16 17.4 6
Kareem Hunt 21.04 18.2 4
James Conner 20.11 17.3 7
Saquon Barkley 19.54 20.0 3
David Johnson 16.41 17.9 5

Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey sit atop the projections for both Draft and DailyRoto. They’re basically in a tier to themselves so feel free to take McCaffrey over Gurley if you like him more or to diversify your lineups. The freebie play this week is Aaron Jones. He’s DailyRoto’s third highest projected RB ahead of Kareem Hunt by a little. He’s going to be in a lot of our lineups unless the other drafters do something weird. It will be hard to trust James Conner after a couple of disappointing weeks but he’s going to be available late if we need a cheap option.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Tyreek Hill 19.91 16.7 2
DeAndre Hopkins 18.66 16.4 3
Keenan Allen 17.54 16.0 5
Adam Thielen 17.04 16.3 4
Brandin Cooks 17.00 14.9 7
Travis Kelce 16.97 14.7 8
Davante Adams 16.81 15.5 6
Julio Jones 15.68 17.5 1

A couple things to note here. Draft likes Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins, but not as much as DailyRoto. We’re probably going to draft an RB with our first pick, but we’re going to start drafting WRs before our opponents. DailyRoto does not like Julio Jones nearly as much as Draft. He has an extremely tough matchup against Baltimore so I’m not a big fan of him this week, but it will be interesting to see if ‘defenses matter’ against him. The other WRs and Travis Kelce are grouped pretty tightly. There’s no reason to reach for any of those second-tier guys though I do like Adam Thielen this week against New England and with or without a banged up Stefon Diggs.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

Your first pick can be Todd Gurley or Christian McCaffrey. I suspect your other two opponents will both draft RB-RB.

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley
DeAndre Hopkins David Johnson Kareem Hunt
Tyreek Hill Julio Jones Adam Thielen
Aaron Jones Cam Newton Keenan Allen
Patrick Mahomes Davante Adams Jameis Winston
DR Total: 111.56 DR Total: 98.15 DR Total: 97.54
Draft Total: 93.30 Draft Total: 94.90 Draft Total: 92.20

I doubt Mahomes makes it all the way back to us, but there’s no reason to reach for him if we can draft our top two WRs. If you wanted to be ultra aggressive with the KC players, you could draft Mahomes instead of Hopkins, and make Travis Kelce your last pick but I like spreading it out more. I’m not sure there are many other draft options from this position. You’re just going to scoop up the value with each pick.

Drafting in Second Position

This team will look familiar:

Team 1 You Team 3
Christian McCaffrey Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley
David Johnson Tyreek Hill Kareem Hunt
Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins Adam Thielen
Cam Newton Patrick Mahomes Keenan Allen
Davante Adams Aaron Jones Jared Goff
DR Total: 98.15 DR Total: 111.56 DR Total: 98.20
Draft Total: 94.90 Draft Total: 93.30 Draft Total: 90.90

I think there’s probably a 60% chance Team 1 takes Todd Gurley even though Draft has McCaffrey projected slightly higher. We like both RBs so it doesn’t really matter. I think there’s actually a better chance we land Patrick Mahomes in this draft position than the first position. I would take Kareem Hunt second if he happens to fall, but I think he’s going to be drafted by Team 3 at the turn almost every time.

Drafting in the Third Position

The first two positions are pretty straightforward, but drafting in third position is a bit tricky. Earlier in the year we had a week where drafting WR-WR from third position worked really well since the stud RBs were drafted and we could find RB value later, but it’s a lukewarm option this week:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Christian McCaffrey Todd Gurley Tyreek Hill
Kareem Hunt Saquon Barkley DeAndre Hopkins
Julio Jones Adam Thielen Patrick Mahomes
Davante Adams Keenan Allen Aaron Jones
Cam Newton Jameis Winston James Conner
DR Total: 102.78 DR Total: 101.78 DR Total: 106.39
Draft Total: 95.20 Draft Total: 94.40 Draft Total: 90.20

We still have an advantage, but it’s slim. This just seems like an ultra risky lineup.

Team 1 Team 2 You
Christian McCaffrey Todd Gurley Kareem Hunt
David Johnson Saquon Barkley Tyreek Hill
Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins Keenan Allen
Cam Newton Adam Thielen Patrick Mahomes
Davante Adams Jameis Winston Aaron Jones
DR Total: 98.15 DR Total: 102.90 DR Total: 106.20
Draft Total: 94.90 Draft Total: 94.80 Draft Total: 90.70

This is a bit of a better advantage. We’re deeply committed to KC players but they’re coming off of a bye and playing one of, if not the weakest team in the NFL. They could easily put up 30+ offensive points in the first half.

If you’re going to diversify your teams I think this is the best place to do it. We’re not targeting Saquon Barkley or James Conner very much, but this would be a good position to target one of them. Same goes for the WRs behind Hill and Hopkins. This would be a great spot to reach a little and draft Adam Thielen, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, or Julio Jones. Don’t be afraid to stack these WRs with their respective QB.

Conclusion

Aaron Jones and the KC players (sounds like a 70s disco band) will be key to profiting this week. If you draft multiple times from the third position, use it to diversify your RBs and WRs. I know we targeted Patrick Mahomes a lot this week. In theory, he should drop to us, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets drafted by another team earlier than expected. There are plenty of good QB options at the top so don’t worry about it if he’s not on your team. Get some wins this week!

 

 

Good Luck

 

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

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