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DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 12: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 12 (Sun-Mon Slate)

DRAFTIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

I loved Week 11! We were targeting Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas in almost every lineup. It should have been a great week, but we also had some lineups with James Conner and Todd Gurley who both struggled. It wasn’t a perfect week, but you should have been able to win over 50% of your drafts.

Now that the Thanksgiving games are over, the Week 12 scores will be lower compared to WEEK 11. This week might be tougher to separate with LAR, KC, NO, and ATL all off the slate.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 23rd for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Jameis Winston 23.16 21.50 2
Lamar Jackson 22.77 22.30 1
Andrew Luck 21.71 19.90 4
Cam Newton 20.37 20.80 3

I miss Patrick Mahomes already. We’ve been targeting Patrick Mahomes fairly early all year, but this is a week we can pretty much punt on QB QB. Jameis Winston and Lamar Jackson have the highest projections on both sites, but I’m actually a little more comfortable with Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. There are probably six other QBs not listed above that you could throw into your lineup and I wouldn’t bat an eye. Take the QB you like the most or throw a dart.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Melvin Gordon 21.86 19.80 2
Saquon Barkley 19.93 21.20 1
James Conner 19.51 16.00 5
Christian McCaffrey 19.29 18.10 3
Joe Mixon 17.32 14.80 8
David Johnson 17.03 17.20 4
Nick Chubb 15.97 16.00 6

It’s a tough week for RBs. Melvin Gordon is obviously the prize, but we definitely want two of the top-4 RBs this week. That may be problematic since RBs will probably fly off the board well ahead of WRs.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Odell Beckham Jr 17.34 15.00 3
Keenan Allen 17.05 14.70 5
Davante Adams 16.68 15.90 1
DeAndre Hopkins 16.58 15.80 2
Adam Thielen 16.54 14.20 6
Antonio Brown 14.67 14.90 4

Our top two WRs are ranked 3rd and 5th on Draft. It’s enough of an inefficiency that we should be able to get at least one of them in every draft even if we target RBs early. The problem is how bunched the WRs are this week. The projection difference between Odell Beckham Jr. and Adam Thielen is less than a point.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

Normally drafting in the first position gives us an edge, but I don’t really like it. We’ll get Melvin Gordon, but we’re at the mercy of the other teams for who our second RB will be. Let’s take a look:

You Team 2 Team 3
Melvin Gordon Saquon Barkley Christian McCaffrey
Odell Beckham Jr. James Conner David Johnson
Keenan Allen Davante Adams DeAndre Hopkins
Jameis Winston Lamar Jackson Antonio Brown
Joe Mixon Adam Thielen Andrew Luck
DR Total: 96.73 DR Total: 95.43 DR Total: 89.28
Draft Total: 85.80 Draft Total: 89.60 Draft Total: 85.90

Hopefully one of our top-4 RBs falls, but here’s the rub with drafting in the first position. I think there’s a good chance five consecutive RBs are drafted before we get to our second pick. If that happens, we get our top two WRs, but their projection isn’t that much higher than the other WRs so it’s not a big edge. This is more or less a two-person race between us and Team 2. What if we get a little lucky and James Conner falls to us?

You Team 2 Team 3
Melvin Gordon Saquon Barkley Christian McCaffrey
James Conner Davante Adams David Johnson
Odell Beckham Jr. DeAndre Hopkins Keenan Allen
Jameis Winston Lamar Jackson Antonio Brown
Adam Thielen Nick Chubb Andrew Luck
DR Total: 98.41 DR Total: 91.93 DR Total: 89.75
Draft Total: 86.50 Draft Total: 91.20 Draft Total: 84.80

This team is about as good as it gets this week. Note that we drafted Jameis Winston for both teams. If you want to target another QB, go for it. It’s more or less the same with your WRs. If you like Hopkins or Adams over OBJ or Keenan Allen, then nab one of them.

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1 You Team 3
Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon Christian McCaffrey
Davante Adams James Conner David Johnson
DeAndre Hopkins Odell Beckham Jr Antonio Brown
Lamar Jackson Jameis Winston Keenan Allen
Nick Chubb Adam Thielen Andrew Luck
DR Total: 91.93 DR Total: 98.41 DR Total: 89.75
Draft Total: 91.20 Draft Total: 86.5 Draft Total: 84.80

This is the exact same team as we had if we got “lucky” and James Conner fell to us in the first position. We don’t need to get lucky in second position. I toyed with the idea of starting RB-WR, but it really isn’t worth it. Start RB-RB in second position.

 

 

Drafting in the Third Position

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon James Conner
Davante Adams David Johnson Christian McCaffrey
DeAndre Hopkins Odell Beckham Jr Keenan Allen
Nick Chubb Antonio Brown Jameis Winston
Lamar Jackson Andrew Luck Adam Thielen
DR Total: 91.93 DR Total: 92.61 DR Total: 95.55
Draft Total: 91.20 Draft Total: 86.80 Draft Total: 84.50

We get an advantage, but it’s not a huge edge. It’s probably the best we can do though. The only other line is to start RB-WR. It’s ugly though:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon James Conner
David Johnson Christian McCaffrey Odell Beckham Jr
Davante Adams DeAndre Hopkins Keenan Allen
Adam Thielen Antonio Brown Jameis Winston
Lamar Jackson Andrew Luck Joe Mixon
DR Total: 92.95 DR Total: 94.11 DR Total: 94.38
Draft Total: 90.80 Draft Total: 88.50 Draft Total: 82.00

We get our top two WRs, our top QB, and a solid RB but barely eek out an edge. It’s just a tough week with so many top options not playing this week.

Conclusion

I know we had Jameis Winston in almost every lineup, but feel free to draft the QB of your choice. I’ll probably draft Andrew Luck or Cam Newton in most of my drafts. There aren’t many superior RB choices so target those top-4 RBs or wait to get Joe Mixon. The WRs are projected so close that you probably want to diversify them just in case OBJ or Keenan Allen throw up a stinker. Good luck this week!

 

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

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