Gridiron Experts

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 11: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 11 (Sun-Mon Slate)

PlayDraftIt’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Week 10 was a bit of a mixed bag. Todd Gurley and Tyreek Hill were awesome, but Aaron Rodgers was meh. The real killer was Ezekiel Elliott who was awesome. My teams went from being a near winning sweep to barely profitable. As they say in poker, “Never complain if you’re collecting a pot.” Hopefully, we can drag some pots this week.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 15th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Patrick Mahomes 25.08 22.5 QB1
Jared Goff 24.47 18.8 QB13
Cam Newton 23.95 21 QB2
Drew Brees 22.46 20.3 QB4
Matt Ryan 20.6 20.6 QB3

I don’t know what Draft is thinking. The KC-LAR game has an over-under well above 60 points. This is a smash spot for Jared Goff. The rest of the QBs are fairly in line. If you draft Michael Thomas, drafting Drew Brees is a pretty good play.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 29.89 21.7 RB2
Saquon Barkley 23.80 23.5 RB1
Melvin Gordon 21.35 19.6 RB3
Ezekiel Elliott 21.00 18.4 RB4
James Conner 20.48 18.1 RB5
David Johnson 19.67 18.1 RB5
Alvin Kamara 19.64 18.1 RB5

Saquon Barkley was Draft’s RB1 last week as well. DailyRoto has a massive projection for Todd Gurley so hopefully, we get an early pick. Notice the drop off between Gurley, Barkley, and everyone else. These RB projections are all high, it’s just that there are so many RBs that could go off this week. This is a great week to wait on your second RB.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Michael Thomas 21.37 18.4 WR1
Odell Beckham Jr 19.51 15.5 WR4
Tyreek Hill 18.89 14.2 WR11
Brandin Cooks 17.92 13.3 WR14
Robert Woods 17.69 13.4 WR13
Julio Jones 16.89 16.3 WR3
Keenan Allen 16.53 14.5 WR8
DeAndre Hopkins 16.51 16.6 WR2
Antonio Brown 14.36 15.0 WR5

We will be getting a lot of Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill. If you do a bunch of these drafts, you can throw those LA Ram receivers in there. With all the parity with the RBs, and the sleeper LA Ram players, this may be a good week to mix in some 6-person drafts.

Drafting in First Position

Some weeks your draft spot doesn’t matter, but this is a week we want to have the first pick. You can win most weeks with a score between 100 to 105. You might need 110+ points to bring it home this week, which exactly what we’re projecting from the first spot.

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
Odell Beckham Jr Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
Patrick Mahomes James Conner DeAndre Hopkins
David Johnson Antonio Brown Julio Jones
Tyreek Hill Cam Newton Matt Ryan
DR Total: 113.91 DR Total: 103.96 DR Total: 96.35
Draft Total: 92.0 Draft Total: 96.0 Draft Total: 91.5

We’re obviously starting with Todd Gurley, but our second pick is tougher to project with so many options for Team 2 and 3. Here’s what it looks like if we go WR-WR with our second and third picks:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
Michael Thomas James Conner Ezekiel Elliott
Odell Beckham Jr DeAndre Hopkins Julio Jones
Jared Goff Cam Newton Patrick Mahomes
David Johnson Antonio Brown Keenan Allen
DR Total: 114.91 DR Total: 99.10 DR Total: 100.85
Draft Total: 92.5 Draft Total: 94.2 Draft Total: 91.3

I’m picking David Johnson as our second RB, but you can sub in Alvin Kamara if you prefer. What if we go WR-QB?:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
Michael Thomas James Conner Ezekiel Elliott
Patrick Mahomes DeAndre Hopkins Julio Jones
Tyreek Hill Antonio Brown Odell Beckham Jr
David Johnson Cam Newton Matt Ryan
DR Total: 114.90 DR Total: 99.10 DR Total: 99.35
Draft Total: 94.9 Draft Total: 94.2 Draft Total: 90.4

There is almost no difference if we get Mahomes instead of Odell Beckham Jr. Notice that this gives us a natural Mahomes-Hill stack.

 

 

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1 You Team 3
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon
James Conner Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Patrick Mahomes Julio Jones
Cam Newton Tyreek Hill Odell Beckham Jr
Antonio Brown David Johnson Matt Ryan
DR Total: 99.10 DR Total: 114.90 DR Total: 99.35
Draft Total: 94.2 Draft Total: 94.9 Draft Total: 90.4

This team should look familiar. I’ve seen teams take Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey first this week so I think there’s a decent chance Gurley is their for our second pick, but if he’s not:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Melvin Gordon
James Conner Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins Patrick Mahomes Julio Jones
Cam Newton Tyreek Hill Odell Beckham Jr
Antonio Brown David Johnson Matt Ryan
DR Total: 105.19 DR Total: 108.81 DR Total: 99.35
Draft Total: 92.4 Draft Total: 96.7 Draft Total: 90.4

Flexing to Barkley is a small hit, but not a killer. There really isn’t any other line to give you a bigger advantage.

Drafting in the Third Position

Drafting in the third position probably won’t be profitable unless one of the first two teams does something weird:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon
Patrick Mahomes Ezekiel Elliott Michael Thomas
DeAndre Hopkins Odell Beckham Jr James Conner
David Johnson Julio Jones Tyreek Hill
Antonio Brown Cam Newton Jared Goff
DR Total: 99.42 DR Total: 111.24 DR Total: 106.56
Draft Total: 95.7 Draft Total: 92.9 Draft Total: 89.1

At least it’s basically a two-way race, but not getting Gurley or Barkley is rough to overcome. Here’s another line:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon
Michael Thomas Ezekiel Elliott Patrick Mahomes
Cam Newton DeAndre Hopkins Odell Beckham Jr
Antonio Brown Julio Jones Tyreek Hill
James Conner Matt Ryan David Johnson
DR Total: 103.96 DR Total: 104.89 DR Total: 104.50
Draft Total: 96.0 Draft Total: 93.6 Draft Total: 89.9

This is as close as it gets to a three-way race. This also assumes a team decides to draft Matt Ryan. He’s QB3 per Draft, but Drew Brees is QB4 and projected for more than Ryan on DailyRoto. Team 2 will get a couple extra points if they “reach” for Brees. We can also “punt” RB and start WR-WR:

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Michael Thomas
Ezekiel Elliott Melvin Gordon Odell Beckham Jr
Patrick Mahomes DeAndre Hopkins James Conner
Antonio Brown Julio Jones Cam Newton
Keenan Allen Matt Ryan David Johnson
DR Total: 100.77 DR Total: 105.24 DR Total: 104.98
Draft Total: 93.9 Draft Total: 94.8 Draft Total: 91.1

Starting WR-WR has worked well in the past week, but it’s lukewarm this week. Not sure I love it, but if you get jammed up with a few drafts from the third spot, you could go this route to mix it up. Sometimes the best you can do is the best you can do.

Conclusion

Getting Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley is clutch this week. If you’re ever in doubt, you can’t go wrong snagging Patrick Mahomes early. Good luck this week.

 

 

Join the 9179 other Diehard Fantasy Football Subscribers

Fantasy Football never stops. Stay up to date on all of the latest Gridiron Experts articles, rankings, and draft strategies. Dominate your league in 2018 and take home a championship. Our Newsletter includes:

  • Latest Fantasy & Dynasty Articles
  • NFL Draft Rookie Profiles
  • Fantasy Football Sleepers and Stats
  • Fantasy Football Rankings
  • NFL Team News and Insight
  • Contests and Promotions
*Your email is 100% private and not shared with any other companies.

Thanks for Reading

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

Add comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Pay Per Head

Fantasy Football T-Shirts

Fantasy Football T-Shirts