Gridiron Experts

DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 10: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 10 (Sun-Mon Slate)

It’s time for another week of DRAFT strategizing for those who love to play one-week daily fantasy games at DRAFT.com. This time of year, fantasy owners who are calling it a season in fantasy leagues, tend to focus more on daily fantasy games like DraftKings or Fanduel. However, I have found that those who couldn’t get enough Mock Drafts and or live to draft in leagues over the summer, really do love the format and awesome app over at Draft.

Last week was the first week that may not have been profitable using these strategies. We were snagging Cam Newton, Ezekiel Elliott, and Adam Thielen in nearly every draft. Cam almost hit big but ended up getting snipped at the goal line and Carolina’s early scoring burst made game script work against us. Newton still finished with over 20 points, but the bigger problem was Elliott and Thielen. Elliott almost had 100 yards from scrimmage by halftime, but only touched the ball a few times during the second half in what ended up being a debacle against Tennessee. Thielen managed a TD, but was held to 22 yards.

The problem with Newton, Elliott, and Thielen was exacerbated by other top players that vastly exceeded their projection. It’s not a big deal if we miss on a player that has a huge game if they weren’t drafted, but Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins were monsters last week. Stuff happens, but we’ve got a new week to work with. Remember that we only need to win about 37% of these drafts to break even so keep plugging away.

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on November 8th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Patrick Mahomes 24.02 20.9 QB1
Aaron Rodgers 22.40 20.6 QB2
Ryan Fitzpatrick 21.18 20.5 QB4
Carson Wentz 18.71 20.6 QB2

Patrick Mahomes regains the top spot. The bigger story is actually Carson Wentz this week. We don’t necessarily need Mahomes, but we get a big advantage if we draft Mahomes or Rodgers and force one of our opponents to draft Wentz.

Running Backs

Running Backs DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Todd Gurley 24.92 21.5 RB2
Melvin Gordon 22.94 19.0 RB5
Saquon Barkley 21.01 22.4 RB1
Kareem Hunt 20.76 19.5 RB4
Alvin Kamara 19.60 19.9 RB3
Joe Mixon 17.02 14.0 RB10
James White 16.86 13.7 RB11
David Johnson 14.28 16.2 RB6

Draft’s projections have Saquon Barkley as the top RB and it’s not even that close. We still like Todd Gurley and we’re going to get a lot of Melvin Gordon. The RB projections are a bit scrambled between Draft and DailyRoto, but they both have the same top-5. There is a massive drop off between those top five RBs and whichever RB gets drafted sixth. We want to get two of those top five RBs to force an opponent to draft David Johnson or another RB.

You can also see Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara are pretty close. You can draft whichever one you prefer if given the choice. Same goes for Joe Mixon. If you don’t get one of the top five RBs, feel free to draft James White or another RB over Mixon if you prefer. It’s good to get exposure to different combinations of players just in case we miss like last week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE DailyRoto Draft Draft Rank
Michael Thomas 19.04 18.6 WR1
Julio Jones 17.48 17.3 WR2
Keenan Allen 16.88 16.1 WR3
Tyreek Hill 16.85 14.2 WR6
Odell Beckham Jr 15.23 15.2 WR5
Davante Adams 14.76 15.8 WR4
Tyler Boyd 14.76 14.2 WR6

WR is tough this week. Michael Thomas and Julio Jones are in a tier of their own and we’d love to get them, but we need to target RBs early. We probably want to wait on WR since we can scoop up Tyreek Hill with our last pick if we want. If we draft both WRs too early, it’s likely one of our opponents lucks into drafting Hill who is one of the top projected WRs this week.

Drafting in First Position

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Alvin Kamara
Michael Thomas Melvin Gordon Kareem Hunt
Patrick Mahomes Julio Jones Keenan Allen
Joe Mixon Odell Beckham Jr Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill Aaron Rodgers Carson Wentz
DR Total: 101.85 DR Total: 99.06 DR Total: 90.71
Draft Total: 89.2 Draft Total: 94.5 Draft Total: 91.9

This is so weird. We got the best RB, the best WR, and the best QB, but it’s still a bit of an even race with Team 2. It’s still profitable, but not by much. I was looking at this and thinking about how other teams have drafted in weeks past and I think Patrick Mahomes might be drafted before our second pick. That would actually be a good thing:

You Team 2 Team 3
Todd Gurley Saquon Barkley Alvin Kamara
Melvin Gordon Patrick Mahomes Kareem Hunt
Michael Thomas Julio Jones Keenan Allen
Tyreek Hill Odell Beckham Jr Davante Adams
Aaron Rodgers David Johnson Carson Wentz
DR Total: 106.15 DR Total: 92.02 DR Total: 90.71
Draft Total: 93.9 Draft Total: 92.0 Draft Total: 91.9

Crazy right? The reason this works is because we get the two highest projected RBs and Aaron Rodgers isn’t too far off from Mahomes. One of the other teams also ends up with David Johnson which significantly weakens their team. If I’m drafting in the first spot, I’m going to cross my fingers hoping that someone drafts Mahomes early so that I can get Gordon.

 

 

Drafting in Second Position

Team 1 You Team 3
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara
Patrick Mahomes Melvin Gordon Kareem Hunt
Michael Thomas Julio Jones Davante Adams
Odell Beckham Jr Tyreek Hill Keenan Allen
David Johnson Aaron Rodgers Carson Wentz
DR Total: 93.58 DR Total: 104.59 DR Total: 90.71
Draft Total:93.3 Draft Total: 92.6 Draft Total: 91.9

This team is pretty similar to the one we drafted in first position. I tried mixing in Mahomes and Thomas in the first couple of picks, but we really need to start RB-RB. Although Draft has Barkley projected higher, I think you have a 50/50 shot of landing Gurley at best in second position. Draft did this a couple weeks ago where Barkley was projected higher but as Sunday approached, they changed Gurley’s projection and made him the top RB. I think the same thing will happen this week. Our strategy does change a little if Gurley does get drafted first:

Team 1 You Team 3
Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Saquon Barkley
Michael Thomas Kareem Hunt Alvin Kamara
Patrick Mahomes Julio Jones Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr Aaron Rodgers Davante Adams
David Johnson Tyreek Hill Carson Wentz
DR Total: 97.49 DR Total: 100.43 DR Total: 90.96
Draft Total: 92.4 Draft Total: 90.6 Draft Total: 94.8

This is no place to get cute. You could start the draft with Barkley and hope Gordon is available after Team 3 makes their picks, but it’s just not a risk worth taking. I think your best bet is drafting Gordon and then drafting whichever top five RB is left. Our score is reduced if Team 1 starts off with Gurley, but it’s still a pretty good spot so no sweat either way.

Drafting in the Third Position

Team 1 Team 2 You
Saquon Barkley Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon
Michael Thomas Alvin Kamara Kareem Hunt
Patrick Mahomes Julio Jones Keenan Allen
David Johnson Davante Adams Aaron Rodgers
Odell Beckham Jr Carson Wentz Tyreek Hill
DR Total: 93.58 DR Total: 95.47 DR Total: 99.83
Draft Total: 93.3 Draft Total: 95.1 Draft Total: 89.4

Drafting in third position is a lot about personal choice. You need to go RB-RB to start, but you can really take whichever two RBs you like the best. Same goes for your third and fourth pick. We know we’re taking a QB(probably Rodgers), but you can take whichever WR you like. This would be a good spot to draft Davante Adams instead of Allen to get the stack with Rodgers.

Another variation would be to start Gordon and Mahomes. If you do this, you’re going to be drafting a RB like Joe Mixon or James White. It could work out, but I think starting with the stud RBs gives you such a nice advantage.

Conclusion

There have been weeks where you’re better off targeting WRs early, but this is definitely the week to scoop up the stud RBs early. I’m going to guess Mahomes gets drafted before we draft him. If that happens, make sure you get Rodgers ASAP. Don’t be afraid to move those RBs around based on your preference. Giving up a half point here and there won’t kill your advantage and at least you got “your guys.”

If you’re crushing these drafts, send me some screenshots on twitter @FF_Gouge.

Play DRAFT

 

 

Thanks & Good Luck!

Eric Ludwig

Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts

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