DRAFT DFS Advice: Week 3 Picks and Tips

DRAFT DFS Advice: Week 3 Picks and Tips 6

DRAFT DFS Advice

DRAFT DFS Advice: Week 3 Picks and Tips 7This season, I will be bringing you a weekly column on advice for winning big while on DRAFT. DRAFT is my favorite DFS format, but it differs significantly from traditional platforms. It requires a unique strategy, and a desire to play big.

This column is based on 6 teams, 5 round draft games. This is the standard format, but all of my advice can be tailored to smaller and larger games.

Want to play DRAFT with me? Add me: MattHicks15, I am always down for some action! Never played before? My promo code: “Top2” will get you a free $3 entry to try it out, then come back and check out my advice weekly! 

Round 1: Running Back Roulette

This week’s first-round is focused primarily on running backs. The first 6 players going off the board in the main slate of games are all running backs. The key, then, is going to be picking which one will have the best upside.

Data collected from DRAFT.com ADP. 6 team $5 entries from 9/16-9/19

Player Team POS ADP
Saquon Barkley NYG RB 1
Dalvin Cook MIN RB 2
Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 3
Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 4
Alvin Kamara NO RB 6
LeVeon Bell NYJ RB 7

My back of choice this week is Elliot. The Dolphins have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. They have allowed 5 total touchdowns and 307 yards on the ground through two weeks. Zeke looked back in mid-season form in Week 2 when he ran for 111 yards and a touchdown against a solid Washington run defense.

After Zeke I prefer them in this order: McCaffery, Barkley, Cook, Bell, Kamara.

Round 2: Wide Reciever Fever

As you might expect, DRAFTers have been quickly pivoting from running backs in the first round to wideouts in the second round this week. Four out of the next seven players in ADP are wide receivers, which just Mahomes and Ekeler bucking the trend.

Player Team POS ADP
Julio Jones ATL WR 8
Michael Thomas NO WR 9
Patrick Mahomes KC QB 10
Keenan Allen LAC WR 11
DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 12
Austin Ekeler LAC RB 13
Odell Beckham CLE WR 14

Despite a poor performance last week, Hopkins is my top pick out of this group. He found the endzone twice in Week 1 and pulls a manageable match-up against Casey Hayward in Week 3. At 48.5, the Texans and Chargers have the second-highest projected total this week.

Julio Jones is also an attractive option. He has found the endzone three times in the first two weeks despite less than optimal play from Matt Ryan. He is leading his team in targets (21) and should continue his dominance while likely drawing coverage from Colts’ rookie Rock Ya-Sin.

Round 3: Forgotten Value

The mid-round is always unpredictable on draft. So much of ADP here depends on how teams are built through the first two rounds. It is an ideal place to find value. In Week 3 I see value in two players who were weekly first-round picks last season, but now are being forgotten.

DRAFT DFS Advice: Week 3 Picks and Tips 8Davante Adams (ADP: 17)  has faced two tough defenses to start the 2019 season. He was nearly shutout on Thursday Night Football against the Bears Week 1 but caught seven of nine targets in Week 2 for 106 yards despite facing the Vikings tough secondary. This week he gets the Broncos defense who has looked good so far but against an easy set of offenses in Oakland and Chicago. I like Adams to break out this week and find the endzone for the first time this season.

Antonio Brown (ADP:19)  found the endzone and caught 4 of his team-leading eight targets for fifty yards in his Patriots debut. He was targeted on eight of the twelve routes he ran in Week 2, despite having little time to practice with his new team beforehand.  The Patriots are 22 point favorites against the Jets and likely will push forty points for the second week in a row, with Brown being the biggest benefactor.

Round 4: Wait on Quarterback

I often advocate for waiting on a quarterback when playing DRAFT, but this week my principle is particularly valuable. Three of my top five quarterbacks this week have ADPs outside of the first three rounds:

Player Team POS ADP
Dak Prescott DAL QB 25
Patrick Mahomes KC QB 10
Tom Brady NE QB 68
Deshaun Watson HOU QB 24
Lamar Jackson BAL QB 16

Prescott provides a tremendous fourth-round value in Week 3. Dallas is a 22.5 point favorite against a Miami Dolphins team that is perhaps the worst team we have seen in recent NFL history. Dak is QB2 through two weeks, throwing for 674 yards and seven touchdowns while completing 51 of his 62 attempts. He has also run for 82 yards on nine carries. He will find the endzone early and often this week, and it will lead to the best value of the week.

Brady falls into a similar value area, and it baffles me he is essentially being ignored on this platform. He is QB4 through the first two weeks, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 44 of his 64 attempts for 605 yards. As mentioned earlier, he has a very favorable match-up against Miami and makes a great stack with Antonio Brown.

Round 5: Late Round Targets

I like to use my round 5 piece of advice to fire off five players that are worth taking high upside fliers on. Here we go:

  • Tyler Lockett (ADP: 30): Locket caught 10 of 12 targets in Week 2, a stark contrast from his one catch performance in Week 1; which is still weighing down his ADP. The Seahawks will be looking to throw again this week when they face a Saints team that will be vulnerable without Drew Brees at the helm. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts through the first two weeks.
  • Sammy Watkins (ADP: 31): Kansas City vs Baltimore (52 points) is the highest scoring match-up of the week. In Week 2 the Ravens played primarily coverage defense and allowed Kyler Murray and the fast-paced Cardinals offense to dink and dunk underneath-leading to a big game for Larry Fitzgerald. Look for them to employ similar concepts in Week 3 against Kansas City. That means Mahomes should target Watkins, who has 15 receptions 247 yards and three touchdowns so far this season, over Hardman or Robinson.
  • Amari Cooper (ADP: 34): Cooper is my wide receiver two overall this week. He has found the endzone in each of the first two weeks; it would not surprise me if he finds it twice this week against the Dolphins. Cooper and Prescott is my stack of the week.
  • Zach Ertz (ADP: 50): The Eagles very well could play without Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson this week due to injury. Ertz has been quiet through the first two weeks because he has not found the endzone. He has, however, been targeted 23 times through the first two weeks and will be the primary red-zone option against the Lions this week.
  • Matt Breida (ADP: 75) Trying to predict which 49ers running back will get the ball is never safe, but if Breida is healthy he will be the top option for Shannahan. Last week he ran for 121 yards on 12 carries. San Fransisco should be playing in a positive game script against a Steelers team traveling to the Bay Area without Ben Roethlisberger. That could mean 15-20 carries for Breida, which could lead to a nice combination of touchdown upside and rushing yardage floor.
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Thanks for reading and Good Luck!

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