DJ Moore Fantasy
DJ Moore was an electric college athlete who the Carolina Panthers selected with the 24th pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. Since being drafted, he has been a solid No. 1 receiver for the Panthers but has disappointed fantasy managers yearly with his low TD numbers. Is this the year he finds the endzone more and becomes a league winner?
What Do The Odds Say?
Heading into the 2022 NFL season, the NFL odds for the Carolina Panthers aren’t great. Their projected win total odds are over/under 5.5 games (-110) and are +450 to make the post-season. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean players on the Panthers will be bad fantasy performers. In fact, DJ Moore ranks 15th in odds for which player will lead the league in receiving yards (+2800), so there is some hope.
A Tale of Two Stats
Yards and Touchdowns are the two numbers most commonly brought up when discussing WRs. Racking up yards has never been a problem for Moore.
This stat blew my mind: Only one WR has 1,200+ scrimmage yards in each of the last two seasons.
It's not Adams, Hill, Julio, Hopkins or Diggs.
The only one: #Panthers WR DJ Moore.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) March 7, 2021
Yup, you read that right. DJ Moore consistently has gathered yards through the air and the ground since he entered the NFL. This isn’t the problem though. While all of these yards are great and generate fantasy points, he is more known for his consistent lack of TDs.
Moore has scored just 12 touchdowns over the last 3 years, four each season. For reference, just last year four NFL WRs had 12 or more TDs. Not including Moore, among the WRs that scored exactly four touchdowns last season, their average target total was 71.7. Moore had 167 targets last year.
Over his career, Moore has just a 2.8% TD rate. This pales in comparison to the TD rates of other young superstars such as Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and AJ Brown, who all have career TD rates above 4.5%. This goes to show just how pathetic his TD efficiency has been over his career. However, it might not be his fault.
The QB Problem
A large part of Moore’s allergic relationship with touchdowns can be blamed on who has thrown the football to him. In his rookie year, Moore caught passes from Cam Newton, who actually managed a solid 5.1% TD rate, although Moore was only targeted 82 times that year. His sophomore season saw most of his throws coming from Kyle Allen, who posted a 3.5% TD rate that year. His third season featured Teddy Bridgewater at QB and he only managed a 3% TD rate. Finally, this past season he caught the majority of his passes from Sam Darnold, who posted just a 2.2% TD rate.
His first four seasons featured four different Week 1 starters and every year his signal caller had a lower TD rate than the previous. Now, enter Baker Mayfield.
A Change at QB
On July 6, the Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield, a former Number 1 pick and the previous signal caller for the Cleveland Browns. While Mayfield is not regarded as an elite talent, there is little doubt that he can be a capable starter in the NFL for years to come. He brings with him career averages of 7.3 Y/A and a 4.8% TD rate, both of which are encouraging to Moore’s outlook. If Moore sees even close to a 4.8% TD rate, he will be a great pick at his current ADP of WR17.
Leader On & Off The Field
On Friday, August 12th, a video went viral on Twitter from Panthers Family Fest that shows DJ Moore breaking up what would have been a fight in the stands
https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1558097405387612162?s=20&t=yOeXwXVTiHzFcHTHx195-Q
This goes to show the class act that Moore is. He had no responsibility to intervene, but he wanted to keep the “Family” atmosphere going and stopped what could have turned into a brawl.
There have also been reports of him staying after practice to sign autographs for fans.
Practice ended about 30 minutes ago and DJ Moore and Brian Burns are still signing autographs. pic.twitter.com/UxKCrtvA0r
— Carolina Blitz (@KeepBlitzin) August 6, 2022
Whether in the huddle or on the sideline, Moore has proven that he is a leader.
Where Should Moore Be Drafted?
I view Moore as a borderline WR1 with top 6 potential if he gets 8+ TDs. I feel great drafting him at ADP and might even reach on him. However, some fantasy managers are hesitant to pull the trigger on Moore. This is due to the elite players going around him. They include stud WRs AJ Brown, Michael Pittman Jr, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson. Personally, the only WR I would always draft before him is AJ Brown. I might take Pittman or Higgins ahead of him depending on who I’ve already drafted and my exposure to those players overall. I think it is ridiculous however that McLaurin, Metcalf, and Johnson are all being drafted ahead of Moore by ADP. That’s not to say you should be completely avoiding these players, but if Moore is available, you should be looking to draft him ahead of those three due to his ceiling if he finally scores TDs at the rate we are hoping he will. Draft him now at a discount before his ADP rises as the start of the season gets closer.
