Diontae Johnson Fantasy Preview for 2023

Diontae Johnson Fantasy

Fantasy managers of Diontae Johnson had it rough in 2022. He should’ve been great; he had the seventh-most targets in the NFL just a year removed from a WR9 overall finish in 2021. Despite how good that sounds on paper, it was a very sour experience for anyone who had stock in the 27-year old receiver. He didn’t catch even a single touchdown over the course of the season, which made it impossible for him to return value on his preseason WR17 ADP in PPR leagues. On top of that, he had to adjust to catching passes from a rookie quarterback on an offense that was bottom-seven in the league in points scored. 

For 2023, his stock has tanked lower than we’ve seen it in a few years. His poor production in 2022 left a scar for fantasy managers, as evidenced by his WR31 ADP for this season. But can things really go that bad for him again? Was last year the beginning of the end for Diontae Johnson’s fantasy relevance, or was it an anomaly that is bound to correct itself in 2023? Today, we’ll analyze Johnson from a fantasy perspective to determine his value for 2023.

Latest Odds

  • Over/Under: 875.5 Receiving yards
  • Over/Under: 5.5 Receiving TDs

One of these bets, I like. The other, not so much. Johnson has hit the over on that receiving yards line every year of his career, minus his rookie season, and I don’t really see much reason that he won’t be able to again in 2023. This looks even better considering the step up that QB Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense as a whole project to take this season. For the touchdown bet, I don’t feel comfortable taking the over at this point. He’s been over five in two out of his four career seasons. I found these odds from Ontario sports betting apps; however, the numbers for Johnson seem to be the same in a few places. 

Current ADP

  • ADP: 65
  • Position: WR31

Johnson’s current ADP is pretty shocking to me. Understandably, some people believe that his career is on a downward trajectory after finishing as the WR39 in 2022, but we’re still talking about someone who’s been a top-ten most targeted player in each of the last three seasons. He couldn’t cash that into fantasy production in 2022, but that was because of his anomalous lack of touchdowns. He didn’t find the endzone even one-time last season, and no way happens again.

https://twitter.com/LuckIsMadeFF/status/1675865737938739200

With second-year QB Kenny Pickett bound to improve on his dismal 1.8% touchdown percentage, it’s very reasonable to expect a minimum of 4-6 touchdowns for Johnson in 2023. He brings one of the best floors of any player going into the later rounds thanks to his high volume of targets, and that makes him a very appealing option. He’s being drafted much closer to his floor than his ceiling, and any fantasy manager that didn’t invest early into the wide receiver position should be snatching up Johnson as a reliable plug-and-play guy at his current ADP.

Fantasy Insight

It’s hard to imagine a world where Johnson’s situation worsens this year. He was playing with a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett last year, and while he did show some flashes of potential, most would agree that he wasn’t particularly great, especially for fantasy purposes. Pickett will almost certainly improve in his second season, as QB’s tend to do, and that bodes well for Johnson’s chances of returning value. 

Beyond that, Pittsburgh’s offense seems set to improve as a whole. They finished as one of the bottom offenses in the NFL in terms of points scored, but that was with multiple starters at QB, Najee Harris’ lingering injury, and the team rolling out one of the league’s worst offensive lines. They made some significant investments in free agency to improve on the protection for Kenny Pickett, which will make it easier for him to get the passing game rolling with Johnson.

One area of concern with Johnson is the depth chart. WR George Pickens showed a lot of promise as a pass catcher in his rookie season last year, and some speculate that an increased role for him moving forward will mean less work for Diontae Johnson. On top of that, Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris should fully recover from their injuries this season, adding two more options to vulture touchdowns and targets from Johnson. 

It’s also worth mentioning 2022 fourth-round draft pick Calvin Austin III will be coming back from injury and that the team traded for veteran Allen Robinson II from the Rams earlier this off-season. Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to expect either of these two players to be highly productive this year, but if one or both of them emerges as solid contributors on this offense, that could add complications for Johnson to get his usual elite volume. 

Fantasy Value

The main case to be made for Johnson’s fantasy value in 2023 boils down to two things: targets and price. In fantasy football, the highest-targeted receivers tend to be highly sought after, which leaves them with an ADP somewhere in the first few rounds. That isn’t the case for the fifth-year wideout heading into training camp, and the safety of his targets combined with the relatively low buy-in cost for Johnson makes him one of the most safe and secure picks in all of fantasy football. 

I touched on the subject of scoring earlier, but it can’t be restated enough: Diontae Johnson will have significantly more touchdowns in 2023. We’ve never seen a player receive such a high volume of targets and not receive a single touchdown, and it’s not like he’s not earning the opportunities to score. In 2022, he was top-14 in the number of total red-zone targets for wide receivers. He’s bound to come down with more of them, especially with Kenny Pickett’s touchdown percentage set to regress from a very poor 1.8% positively. For reference, if he had just come down with a reasonable five touchdowns (a number he has reached or exceeded every year in his career), he would’ve finished as the overall WR22.

Safe to say, I’m buying in on Diontae Johnson’s redraft value this year. People are giving up on him after one year of low production thanks to anomalous touchdown numbers, and I don’t think there’s any way he doesn’t far outproduce his ADP if he stays healthy for the entire season. At his worst, he’s a safe PPR option that will give you consistent production throughout the course of the season. At his best, he’s a high-volume wideout with solid touchdown potential on an offense that looks to be much improved. Any fantasy manager with a volatile or thin group of receivers should look to snag Johnson at his ADP as a safe and reliable option to bring stability to their roster.

Dynasty Value

Johnson is an intriguing option in dynasty leagues. He just turned 27 in early July, so he still has at least a couple more seasons before we have to start worrying about him regressing due to age. He’s also been one of the healthier receivers in the NFL over the course of his career, and there isn’t much in his injury history to be concerned about.

Overall, he seems locked and loaded for the foreseeable future. He’s under contract for the next two years, and it’s very possible he gets an extension beyond that. If you have him on your dynasty team, you really shouldn’t sell him. Not because he’s some dominant cornerstone for your roster, but rather because most managers won’t be willing to pay a fair price for him coming off of a down season. If anything, he’s a good buy-low option. He’ll offer good production for the next couple of seasons at least, and you should look to package an older receiver and a pick to grab Johnson, especially if you’re running a team that’s ready to compete now.

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This Article Written By

Leo Sells

‎‎‎‎‎‏‏‎ Leo Sells is a passionate fan for the Patriots and 76ers, and he has been playing fantasy sports for over five years. In addition to writing articles about sports and winning his fantasy football leagues, Leo likes to play sports and spend time with his family and friends doing outdoor activities, such as hiking or fishing. ‏‏‎