DFS Picks Week 9
Hey all, and welcome to Week 9! Week 8 was half decent as my top QB Bo Nix was found on the winning ticket of a few GPPs. Sadly, Bijan Robinson’s name was on too many of my lineups, and I often paired him with the Falcons defense, which kept me from a high finish. Thanks for nothing Atlanta! Let’s try and get a little better this week.
Reminders:
- The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
- Join the Discord, it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.
Let’s dive into it!
QB 1 – Caleb Williams (8 – 9%)
While Caleb has been cold as of late, the hapless Bengals defense could be a ticket to right the fantasy ship. Cincinnati has allowed over 26 points in 7 straight games and is consistently letting opposing QBs have ceiling weeks against them. This team is also going to be without Trey Hendrickson on Sunday. While the Bears could elect to lean heavily on RB D’Andre Swift (7%) in this tilt, the opportunity is there for Caleb and the passing attack so long as Joe Flacco (6%) actually plays in this game and helps to keep the Bengals competitive (I’m putting the finishing touches on this article early Friday afternoon and do not have practice reports yet. I would anticipate that he’ll be a game time decision). Just know that if Flacco is ruled out, then that likely effects how much Caleb will be needed to keep the offense going and I will be less interested in him and more interested in Swift. Rome Odunze (8 – 9%) is the primary stacking option with Williams.
***I was able to sneak in some breaking news here. D’Andre Swift is out for this game as is Roschon Johnson. This makes Kyle Monangai (25 – 30%) quite chalky as he should have the backfield largely to himself.***
QB 2 – Daniel Jones (4 – 5%)
Beyond the Steelers defense yielding passing yards at a top 10 rate, giving up 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 11.1 yards per completion, as well as allowing 450 total yards in each their last two games, they will be without S DeShon Elliott in this matchup. Dimes is QB1 in football in first half scoring, but the Colts turn to their stud RB Jonathan Taylor (8 – 10%) in the second half of games. That trend could buck this week as it is likely that Aaron Rodgers (2%) and the Steelers will be able to keep up with the Colts. The injuries that the Colts are dealing with in their secondary is exactly the type of thing that Rodgers can exploit. The 50.5 total along with a close spread suggests the potential of a back-and-forth affair.
Alex Pierce (3%) and Michael Pittman (10%) have advantageous matchups against the outside CBs of Pittsburgh. Tyler Warren (6 – 8%) also goes up against the group that let fellow TE Tucker Kraft put up a stat line of 7-143-2.
QB 3 – Jaxson Dart (15%)
Dart is in line to be the top-owned QB in Week 9. He has some serious splits in success when pressured vs not being pressured. Without Nick Bosa in the lineup, the 49ers have had issues generating pressure. Additionally, the 49ers are yielding over 300 passing yards per game and a completion rate of 70%. Advantage Dart.
San Fran is giving up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. This puts both Wan’Dale Robinson (12 – 15%) and TE Theo Johnson (10 – 12%) in good spots. The return of Darius Slayton (5%) helps to open things up for them as well.
It really doesn’t matter who starts at QB for San Francisco on Sunday in terms of what that does for Christian McCaffrey (30 – 40%). It looks like CMC could be the highest owned player of Week 9. The 49ers had one of their toughest matchups of the season in the Texans defense last week. Due to limited time on offense, a trailing game script, and a stingy defense, CMC had his worst fantasy week of the year. I don’t expect a repeat of that with the Giants. I like CMC much better on DraftKings due to his involvement in the passing game. Regardless of which QB starts for SF, McCaffrey should return to his normal fantasy acumen. Just know that a lot of lineups will feature Dart, Robinson and CMC.
QB 4 and 5 – Patrick Mahomes (15%) and Josh Allen (7%)
These two come in tied in my QB model, always interesting when the two QBs in question are in the same game. Mahomes looks back to his heavy passing ways. We fantasy folk have missed you Patrick! He has 3 TDs in all of his last 3 games, is completing about 70% of his passes, and is running for roughly 30 yards a game. When pressured, Mahomes’ completion rate drops from 74% to 47%, which is what the Buffalo defense will attempt to do here as their pressure rate is 44% of plays.
Rashee Rice (11 – 13%) and Travis Kelce (9 – 11%) are the primary stacking options with Mahomes. I see Matt Milano and company making things a little difficult for Kelce, but a 2 TD day shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities. Xavier Worthy (6%) could always bust free for a big game, but will usually be held to single-digit fantasy performances.
On the other side of this game I am bullish on Josh Allen. While the Chiefs defense has been quite good, Allen’s fantasy track record speaks for itself. He’s averaging 26.5 fantasy points in his matchups against the Chiefs. Part of the reason for that is due to the amount of times he uses his legs, over 10 rushing attempts per game in fact. If DC Steve Spagnuolo stays true to recent matchups, he will blitz Allen fairly heavily. While Allen’s aDOT decreases significantly in those scenarios, his passing completions increase as does his scramble rate. I like the idea of playing Allen naked and hoping he has a 2 rushing score day.
One-offs
- Jahmyr Gibbs (11%) is enjoying a much more featured role under OC John Morton who has been more straight forward in his offensive approach than his predecessor. As such Gibbs has been getting more snaps and opportunities than David Montgomery (5%). Additionally, Gibbs has seen a majority of red zone snaps as well. In fact, Monty has had none in the last 2 games. Adding on to that is the fact that Minnesota just gave up over 200 yards rushing to the Chargers, and I am bullish on Gibbs in this one.
- Kyren Williams (15 – 20%) and the Rams are looking at a projected team total of 29 points and are favored by nearly 2 TDs. This is suggestive that the Rams will run the game out as they nurse their lead in the second half. New Orleans has trailed in games at a whopping 87% of the time. They are also mediocre at best in terms of stopping the run, and Kyren gets a little run in the passing game as well. Depending on which way the early TDs break, this could be a huge day for Kyren.
- Kimani Vidal (15%) is not wasting this opportunity in front of him with Omarion Hampton, Hassan Haskins, and Najee Harris all on the shelf. At his core, HC Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball. Having Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins back is certainly helpful in that regard. Hopefully Mekhi Becton makes it onto the field as well. The Titans are not a run defense that needs to be feared. I expect another strong outing from Vidal, it just might be tough for him to reach a super high ceiling as Justin Herbert (3 – 4%) has also been running, and the TDs could end up going to players other than Kimani.
- Travis Etienne (8 – 9%) interests me from a low ownership perspective. It’s been a month since he has had a good fantasy game, but coming out of the bye and after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, I see HC Liam Coen returning to a strength of his, and that is the heavy use of the RB position. The Raiders are a middle-of-the-road team against the run, though they did just surrender 150 yards in their last matchup against Kansas City, which was well out of hand. I like this game for the potential fantasy environment more than most and for Etienne to be more involved than he has been.
- TreVeyon Henderson (1%) will break out one of these weeks. Last week looked like it could have been the one except the way to beat the Browns is through the air which New England eventually realized. Atlanta can be had on the ground more than they can through the air. Rhamondre Stevenson is dealing with a toe injury and hasn’t been practicing, so this could be the week to pair Henderson with the Patriots defense. I would expect Henderson’s ownership to increase if Rhamondre is ruled out.
- Puka Nacua (20%) is returning to the lineup in Week 9 for the Rams. I feel like I don’t need to say why Nacua is such a great play against a Saints secondary that is dealing with injuries, but I will anyway. The Saints utilize Cover-3 zone at a very high rate. Not only does Matt Stafford (2%) do well in such an environment, but Nacua’s efficiency rates against Cover-3 are stupid. The only problem is that it could be the aforementioned Williams or Davante Adams (3 – 4%) who are the TD recipients in Week 9. Stafford himself has been bucking the trend in my QB model as he does not continually grade out very highly, but he has been throwing multiple TDs in almost every game (including 5 in London a couple weeks ago) and that’s exactly what he would need to do in order to come in as QB1 for Week 9.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (15 – 17%) is similar to Jahmyr Gibbs in that the new OC has streamlined the offense. The Sun God has double the targets of anyone else on the Lions and has 29 over the last 3 games. While Minnesota isn’t a defense that screams to play opposing WRs against them, St. Brown should get his standard amount of targets and be a first, quick read for Jared Goff (3%) as he tries to beat the heavy blitzing Vikings.
- Chimere Dike (4%) and Elic Ayomanor (4%) show that I don’t have much in terms of WR one-off recommendations this week as I will be stacking my QB with one or two of his receiving weapons and/or a comeback on the other side of a matchup. However, if needing a punt option, Dike is emerging as one of Ward’s go to weapons. I do like Ayomanor better from a pure talent and future fantasy asset perspective, but Dike’s targets over the last few weeks are hard to ignore. The problems is guessing which WR will get the targets this week.
- Tucker Kraft (6 – 9%) very much feels like chasing, but the matchup is good against this Panthers defense. I would not expect a repeat performance from this past Sunday night against the Steelers, but Kraft could still end up as the optimal TE if it’s a low TE output week.
- Oronde Gadsen (7 – 9%) has been receiving steady usage in the Chargers offense. A few catches and a TD might do it so long as no other TE goes off here in Week 9.
- Brock Bowers (7%) finally has no injury designation and is supposedly fully healthy. The Raiders have an implied team total of 21 points, which is 44% higher than their season long average of 15. While I was skeptical of Bowers in a Pete Carroll offense that has Geno Smith (3%) as their QB, the Raiders have to utilize him if they ever want to win another game. Jacksonville’s recent bludgeoning at the hands for the Rams shows that they can be thrown on.
