DFS Picks Week 6
Hey all, and welcome to Week 6! Week 5 got me a little back on track as Justin Fields and Dak Prescott were found in many DFS gpp winning lineups. Yes, QBs not in my model outperformed those two, but I’ll still take positive results and move on to the next week. The 2 best QBs last week, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, participated in a back-and-forth shootout, which is what we are trying to identify here.
Reminders:
- The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
- Join the Discord, it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.
Let’s dive into it!
Quick Picks
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Projected Ownership (6 – 7%)
Through 5 weeks of this 2025 NFL season, Baker is QB5 in points per game and has not had a week worse than QB13. He is having success through a variety of ways as he has been showing a willingness to run, throw it deep, check it down, or use the intermediate passing window.
Even without Mike Evans, Mayfield is using a multitude of weapons. Emeka Egbuka (17%) certainly appears to be real and already the WR1 in this offense; he is the team leader in snaps, targets, and red zone opportunities. Chris Godwin will miss this game so Sterling Shepard’s (3%) is the likely WR2; his opportunities have been staying at an average of about 5 per game, Cade Otton’s (3 – 4%) have been at 4.5 over the past 2 weeks. Both are likely to be TD dependent in order to crack the optimal lineup. Otton is on the field a lot, consistently over 90% of snaps the last 4 weeks. Tez Johnson (4%) could see some more snaps and targets as well. He had a season high of 36% of snaps and 4 catches on 4 targets against Seattle.
It looks like Bucky Irving will miss again, so Rachaad White (20%), who overwhelmingly saw the majority of snaps and red zone looks, will be in a decent spot for a second week in a row. Kyren Williams totaled 131 yards and 2 TDs against these 49ers in week 5, though he could’ve had a 3rd TD had he not had the ball punched out at the goal line toward the end of the game.
Since losing Nick Bosa, the 49ers have had a lowly 28% pressure rate, good for 28th in the league. When he has time to throw, Mayfield has a QB rating of 112.2, and is completing 70% of his passes with 7 TDs and 0 interceptions.
Projected Ownership (8 – 10%)
On paper, the matchup does not look all that great for the Cowboys’ passing attack. However, the Panthers defense just surrendered strong QB performances to Miami and New England. Carolina should be able to put up some points on this defense, so it’s likely that Dak and company will have to continue their strong offensive output. The Cowboys are averaging 61 combined points per game, which is 2nd most in the NFL.
Carolina uses Cover-3 at a near 50% rate. Prescott has a QB rating of 123 and is completing north of 80% of his passes against Cover-3 this season. (Those are really high numbers!)
Count me as surprised by the efficiency that Javonte Williams (18 – 20%) has brought to the table for Dallas. Somehow, someway, the Miami Dolphins only put up 19 rushing yards against these Panthers in week 5. While that may scare some, I see that as more as Mike McDaniel and companying electing to pass on the Panthers. While Dallas could make a similar decision, I don’t see the Panthers as this suddenly incredibly stout defense. Javonte is currently the second-best RB in the NFL with 92 yards after contact.
George Pickens (15 -17%) and Jalen Tolbert (2%) are the WR snap leaders for the Cowboys, but it was Ryan Flournoy (6 – 8%) who led the group in targets last week with 9 whereas Tolbert garnered a grand total of 1. Jake Ferguson (13 – 15%) only saw 55 snaps last week but was targeted 9 times, he is entrenched as the TE receiving option right now with CeeDee Lamb likely to miss again. The Panthers are allowing the 2nd most points to the TE position.
The Carolina side of this matchup is broken down below.
Projected Ownership (3%)
As of this writing, it is looking like Jones will be the starter yet again for San Francisco, though he is questionable, so keep that in mind. I threw Brock Purdy into the model as well, and he actually grades out a little better than Jones, but it likes both regardless.
Mac Jones has been chucking the football, throwing it 38 or more times in his 3 starts. The 49ers also lead the league in passing plays of more than 10 yards.
The Buccaneers just allowed Sam Darnold to enjoy a ceiling performance and stack up a 30+ fantasy point outing. They play a lot of single high safety, just like the Rams, and Jones was able to put 342 yards and 2 TDs against them.
Because it’s the 49ers, they are dealing with plenty of injuries. As we head into the weekend, the ownership numbers on Jauan Jennings (7%) and Kendrick Bourne (6%) could change significantly. Ricky Pearsall will miss this game. Christian McCaffrey (20 – 25%) has been seeing a lot of work early in games but saw a lot of his passing game work skew toward Bourne against the Rams.
The one thing that gives me pause here is that DC Todd Bowles is likely to dial up some blitz packages against San Fran. However, Tampa is having trouble getting to the QB even with their blitzing. Jones has largely enjoyed a clean pocket thus far, but if the Bucs can get to him frequently, well, his career stats under pressure are mediocre.
4 QBs Tied for 4th
Bryce Young (8%)
It’s the matchup that my model likes here. Young has not been a QB that can achieve a super high ceiling. However, it is the Dallas Cowboys, who can be thrown on. Young and company should, at the very least, keep things competitive, which will keep Dak and company moving the offense.
I like rookie Tetairoa McMillan (17%) to finally get his first TD (hopefully on a deep pass) and I find Jalen Coker (?) interesting if he indeed makes his 2025 debut. The Boys have been able to achieve some pressure on QBs recently. Young’s stats against pressure aren’t good.
Rico Dowdle (25%) logged 67% of snaps with Chuba Hubbard out of the lineup. Dowdle also got the most red zone opportunities with 4. The Cowboys are bottom 10 in the league against the RB position.
Justin Herbert (11%)
I’m a little skeptical of my model again this week when it comes to Herbert. Without Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, a banged up Mekhi Becton, and now a possible further blow as Trey Pipkins hasn’t been practicing, this offensive line has been seriously depleted. Add in that the Dolphins have been getting to the QB a little better of late, and hopefully you start to see my concerns in terms of this being a ceiling output matchup for Herbert.
That being said, the Dolphins’ defense is not all that good. The Chargers are still throwing more than I ever anticipated this year, and now they have lost Omarion Hampton along with Najee Harris. Excluding Bryce Young, every QB Miami has faced has been a top 5 QB that week.
Keenan Allen (9%) is leading the team in targets thanks to his 9 target outing against the Commanders. One thing that was noticeable was that Ladd McConkey (7 – 8%) out targeted Quinton Johnston (10 – 12%) for the first time this year. McConkey’s short yardage and run-after-the-catch abilities might be leaned on more with the offensive line issues.
One other thing that makes me doubt Herbert this week is whether or not Miami can put up offensive numbers in this matchup. The Chargers are yielding the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs and RBs. They are also allowing the 6th fewest points to TEs. If I am choosing someone, it’s Jaylen Waddle (11%) who was found in many GPP winning lineups last week. With no Tyreek on the field, Waddle is WR1 for Miami and can get there with his talent and the volume of targets he will be getting. His targets increased by 33% in week 5. Darren Waller (5%) can also be considered based on his red zone usage.
Matt Stafford (2 – 3%)
It’s Baltimore and CJ Stroud just threw all over them. Stafford, Puka Nacua (30 – 35%), and Davante Adams (8 – 10%) should eat against a secondary that is still banged up and starting practice-squad players.
Stafford has been on fire the last 2 weeks, putting up lofty passing yard totals and tossing multiple TDs. Those were in competitive game scripts, however. I am concerned that Baltimore will not be able to keep up, which would reduce Stafford’s need to throw and thus keep him from a ceiling performance. There is also the possibility of some bad weather in this one.
Putting those concerns aside, Baltimore has allowed 37 or more points in 4 out of their 5 games, and they let CJ Stroud and Patrick Mahomes have ceiling games against them.
If I’m not playing Stafford and his WRs, then Kyren Williams (11 – 16%) seems like a good pivot as the Ravens are the second worst team against RBs.
Drake Maye (11%)
The Saints are banged up in their secondary. Additionally, they play a solid amount of Cover – 3, and Maye eats up that scheme, enjoying a 70% completion rate against it in his short career. Count me as a believer as to what OC Josh McDaniels can do for a young QB.
Stefon Diggs (15%) looked like his vintage self in the revenge game against Buffalo. New England took the training wheels off Diggs as they were perhaps easing him in post surgery. He’ll be going up against a secondary that’s a little banged up as well.
Hunter Henry (6 – 7%) is also in a good spot as the Saints are allowing the 5th most points to TEs per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson (4%) and TreVeyon Henderson (4%) also have a juicy matchup against the Saints. With no Antonio Gibson, more touches will be available for both these backs.
If you’re looking for a run back here, Chris Olave (18 – 20%) makes sense as he has seen double digit targets in all but one game this year. Juwan Johnson (6%) could also be considered as the Patriots are giving up points to TEs. If you feel like riverboat gambling, Taysom Hill (2%) could vulture some TDs.
One-Offs
- Jonathan Taylor (16 – 17%) has been getting the rushing yards and the TDs for the Colts of late. Daniel Jones has not been running as much as in past years. Additionally his dropback rate reduces significantly in the second half of football games. He only threw 5 passes in the second half last week. Between the defense playing as well as it as, and the commitment to Taylor, the RB seems like the play against a Cardinals team that is allowing 20 fantasy points per game to the RB position.
- Josh Jacobs (18%) gets the lowly Bengals defense, the worst team versus the run. The Packers are also coming off their bye and should be well rested.
- Ashton Jeannty (14%) faces the 3rd-worst team vs the RB position in the Titans. The last time the Raiders got a cupcake matchup against a porous run defense, Jeantty exploded for 21 carries, 138 yards and a TD. I could see a similar outcome here against Tennessee.
- Ja’Marr Chase (6 – 7%) needs to be monitored as he showed up on the injury report Friday with an illness. Joe Flacco should be an instant upgrade for the Bengals passing offense, and the Bengals will likely be in a trailing game script, which will keep them throwing. Should Chase miss, Tee Higgins (3%) will likely see his ownership rise.
- Jaxson Smith-Njigba (15 – 20%) is far and away the team leader in targets and has a 33% target share. Jacksonville has been one of the surprise teams in the league and their defense isn’t particularly one to target, but JSN could pop off with the volume he is getting.
- Elic Ayomanor (3%) is someone who is going to need to score to end up as an optimal WR. He received only 4 targets last week, but he has been someone that Cam Ward has gravitated toward in the past. The Raiders are bleeding points to opposing WRs. This is a prayer punt play and not a priority one.
- Isaiah Bond (2%) garnered 7 targets form rookie QB Dillon Gabriel in week 5. The Steelers are a bottom 10 team against the WR position. If I need a punt at the position, I don’t mind taking a shot here.
- Tyler Warren (17%) has been a steady performer at the TE spot in his rookie season so far. The Cardinals are not particularly good vs TEs. I don’t anticipate a high scoring, back-and-forth affair between these two, so this play may require a TD from Warren as opposed to him getting there with volume.
- Tucker Kraft (11 – 13%) gets a Bengals group who are the worst team in football against TEs. I do think that Jacobs is the Packer to own in this matchup, but a few grabs and a TD could be in the cards for Kraft in Week 6.
