DFS Picks Week 4: GPP Lineup Builder Tips

DFS Picks Week 4

Hey all, and welcome to Week 4! Week 3 was decent for me. I used a lot of Mariota and Caleb, and a little bit of Hurts as I couldn’t resist his low ownership. Alas, players like Tre Tucker didn’t make it into those lineups, so a significant pay day was missed. On to bigger and better things!

Reminders:

• The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
• Join the Discord, it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.

QB1 – Caleb Williams (5 – 7%)

• I would caution us all not to expect Caleb to come in as the DFS #1 QB in back-to-back weeks, but I also don’t like ignoring what my model says.
• While the Raiders’ defense is not as bad as the Cowboys, they haven’t exactly been world beaters either, as seen in their effort against the Commanders last week. The part that helps to make Williams a solid play is that the Chicago defense has not been good. A big reason for that is due to the injuries they have had on defense. Practice reports are indicative that they are getting a little healthier, but if the Bears can’t stop the Raiders from scoring, then Caleb and company will need to keep the offense moving in order to stay in the game.
• One of the big things that helps Williams achieve success is his time to throw. Caleb escaped last week without being sacked once, and the time he had to throw produced an average of 12.7 per pass attempt. The Raiders have been struggling to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, although they have shown improvement. In any event, the Bears offensive line (revamped in the offseason and improving each week) will have to win the line of scrimmage on a consistent basis for this play to work.
• Rome Odunze (11%) appears to be the new WR1 in Chicago these days. DJ Moore’s (4%) potential for a ceiling game appears to be low, and Luther Burden (1%) likely will have more consistent fantasy games in his future but could haul in another deep TD at his low salary, making the play viable.

QB2 – Daniel Jones (9%)

• This contest has the highest total on the slate. I think some may see this game as a tough task for Jones and the Colts, but we did just see the Eagles throw all over the Rams in the second half of last week’s contest. Considering that HC Shane Steichen came from the Eagles, I’d expect him to incorporate some of the tape into Indianapolis’ attack on Sunday. The QBs LA has had to play this year are named CJ Stroud, Cam Ward, and Jalen Hurts.
• I like pairing Jones with Tyler Warren (15%) and/or Michael Pittman (10%) who has played great when not being shadowed by Denver’s top CB. Alec Pierce is going to miss this game, so Adonai Mitchell (sub 1%) could be a viable, albeit risky, punt.
• Jonathan Taylor (16%) is leading the league in red zone rush attempts and red zone rushing yards. That’s largely a result of how effective this entire offense has been thus far. While I would personally find it difficult to have both Dimes and Taylor in a GPP winning lineup, it isn’t impossible. The Colts would need to continue to have their efficient offense perform to the levels that it has been. The Rams are middle of the pack in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, but in an ironic twist they aren’t allowing a lot of fantasy production to opposing RBs.
• Denver was able to put up some points against this Colts group back in week 2. Indy’s other two opponents were the inept Dolphins and rookie Cam Ward. I expect Matthew Stafford (3%) to be able to find success in this matchup through either Puka Nacua (25 – 30%) and/or Davante Adams (15 – 18%).

QB3 – Brock Purdy (6 – 8%)

• This name was a bit of a surprise to me. Here’s something funny though. Did you know San Francisco is the only team left in football without a rushing TD? Well, they are. Not something I would have guessed considering who their running back is.
• The Jaguars defense is playing rather well. However, they aren’t playing as well as the Seattle Seahawks. Why should that matter? Purdy was pressured on almost half of his drop backs in their week one matchup. Despite that, Purdy still put up 277 yards and 2 TDs. Jacksonville does not have the pressure rate that Seattle has, and they aren’t accruing sacks very much either.
• Death, taxes, and the 49ers are riddled with injuries. Ricky Pearsall (7 – 8%) and Jauan Jennings (7%) have been the alpha dogs in the 49er passing attack from a WR perspective. However, both are on the injury report but have logged limited practices on Friday. Something to monitor and be flexible with for their 4:05 EST kickoff.
• Jacksonville has been rather stout against the run, not great news for Christian McCaffrey (30 – 35%). However, his involvement in the passing game keeps him in play; you can even pair him with his QB and have that potentially work out. The 49ers do play on Thursday. That’s a short turnaround for an RB who requires a lot of rest. Rolling with Brian Robinson (sub 1%) could be a low-owned GPP winner.
• Jake Tonges (2%) got the majority of work with George Kittle still out. He wasn’t the recipient of many targets, but the TE position remains a staple in the Kyle Shanahan offense, so it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities that Tonges finds the end zone. This is also a revenge matchup for Luke Farrell (sub 1%).
• The thing that has me concerned about the Brock Purdy play is whether or not Trevor Lawrence (3%) and company can stay in this matchup. The 49ers defense has played well, but they did just lose Nick Bosa for the year. Historically, when this group has been without Bosa in the lineup, their ability to rush the passer has dropped significantly. While that will make things easier for Lawrence, will it be enough for him to force Purdy into a ceiling matchup?
• Travis Etienne (5%) could be an interesting pivot away from CMC. While the matchup isn’t super great, Etienne has been consistently getting 17 – 20 opportunities a game. This slate is looking rough in terms of getting away from chalky RBs.

QB4 – Geno Smith (10 – 12%)

• Smith is looking like a solid play on the other side of the Bears vs Raiders matchup. While it may surprise you, Geno is QB2 in the NFL in passing yards, thanks in large part to his near 300-yard passing performance last week. The Bears are one of the worst teams in football in terms of allowing fantasy production to opposing QBs, and they’ve seemed unable to generate pressure on QBs thus far. Top that off with their depleted secondary, and this is a very nice environment for Smith this weekend. Just note, it’s quite possible that Geno Smith is the highest-owned QB in Week 4. I don’t feel good about chalky Geno Smith.
• Expect Tre Tucker’s (7%) ownership to go up in Week 4. In fact, I bet he’ll be higher owned than that 7% I’m seeing. While I never recommend chasing a previous week’s performance, Tucker has seen 9 and 8 targets in his last two outings and is looking like one of Geno Smith’s favorite targets. Prior to last week where he only saw 4, Jakobi Meyers (15 – 25%) saw 10 and 12 in the first two weeks. His ownership is all over the place this week, furthering my distrust in the Tucker ownership number.
• Brock Bowers (11%) is starting to worry me a bit. Neither HC Pete Carroll nor Smith have a history of using their TEs a bunch. Yes, Bowers is unique, but I’m hoping they’ve been holding him back a little out of an abundance of caution with his knee. Jake Ferguson had 13 catches against this defense in week 3.
• Ashton Jeantty (15%) is going to be someone who is highly owned this week despite having not done much in his rookie campaign. The Bears defense has not been formidable against the run, so this could be the week we see Jeantty accrue some more fantasy points.

Honorable Mention – Josh Allen (8%) & Lamar Jackson (5%)

• These two come in tied for 5th in my model this week. I have concerns about their matchups as the Bills should handle the Saints rather easily, and the Chiefs have been a tough out for Lamar in recent matchups. However, their rushing upside will keep them in play most weeks.
• Allen and the Bills have a laughable -16.5 spread in this game. Games with spreads like this are usually not conducive to ceiling games for QBs. Buffalo shouldn’t need Allen to rush for over 50 yards and a couple scores to beat New Orleans. They can run the game out with James Cook (10%) and some of their other backs and may even end up in a situation where they can bench Allen, which will not be good for our fantasy aspirations, especially at Allen’s price tag. However, the Dolphins put up more of a fight than many expected, so if Rattler and company can find the end zone a few times, especially earlier in the game, then Josh Allen will have to do more.
• Lamar is 1 – 4 in his career against Kansas City, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been bad for fantasy. A little over a year ago these two teams played and Lamar went for 273 yards and 1 TD, but he added 122 rushing yards, roughly 28 DraftKings points. That’s the element Lamar brings with his legs. While DC Steve Spagnuolo will likely have something dialed up to limit Lamar, this could be a situation where Lamar could get to QB1 with a rushing score or two. So far this season, Lamar has had finishes of QB4, QB3, and QB3 in the first three weeks. Lastly, the Ravens defense has not looked great, so Kansas City should be able to move the ball against them, which unlike Josh Allen, will keep Lamar playing the entirety of this matchup.
  • Xavier Worthy (4%), Travis Kelce (5%), or Tyquan Thornton (3%) are interesting bring backs in Lamar-based lineups this week. One of the Chiefs or Ravens will be 1 -3 after Week 4, so I expect maximum effort out of both teams. The Ravens haven’t been stopping opposing passing attacks, so one of the Kansas City receivers should eat this week.
    • As a last aside, Patrick Mahomes (7%) grades out just under Lamar and Allen in my model.

One-Offs

• Omarion Hampton (17%) will now have the backfield largely to himself now that Najee Harris is on the shelf. And what a matchup he has under this new scenario as the Giants are yielding 153 rushing yards per game, good for 2nd worst in the NFL.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (sub 2%) or TreVeyon Henderson (4%). Henderson may be the beneficiary of Stevenson’s fumbling issues, but we need to figure what kind of coach Mike Vrabel is. Will he show faith in the veteran or turn to the rookie he drafted? Vrabel has stated that the team needs what Stevenson provides, but Henderson also took the first reps in practice on Wednesday. By Friday, reports are indicating that it is likely Henderson who will be the lead dog for this week. The Panthers are one of the worst teams against the run. Even last week when they surprised the Falcons, Bijan Robinson (11 – 14%) still found fantasy production against them.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (12%) could be in line for plethora of targets on Sunday. The Browns defense is rather good, and they will be tested in this matchup, but their passing defense does look more vulnerable than their run game does. The Ravens displayed this with their passing performance against Cleveland in week 2.
• Malik Nabers (9%) is the player I would be targeting the most if I were making my first ever NFL start. While the Chargers are not an easy out as a defensive unit, Nabers is one of those players who is uncover-able. I would like if his ownership was a little less, and I actually think it will be, but a double digit target outing could be incoming for Nabers.
• Nico Collins (8%) has been successful thus far in 2025 despite his QB’s play. Count me as nervous about Collins sitting on the sideline during the Texans final drive against the Jaguars last week, but he eventually returned to the game and has been a full participant in practice on Thursday and Friday. In two games against the Titans last year, Collins had stat lines of 5 – 92 – 1 and 5 – 38 – 1. The Titans are still mediocre at best at defending the pass.
• Christian Kirk (5%) is someone to consider if you’re not using Collins. In his first game with Stroud, Kirk received 8 targets. I would have to rewatch tape on this, but I’m pretty sure 3 or 4 of those targets came on their final drive while Collins was temporarily sidelined with a hand ailment. With no Diggs or Dell on the field right now, Kirk offers a veteran presence that the Texans can benefit from. Tennessee is mediocre at best at defending the pass. Wait, didn’t I just say that?
• Tetairoa McMillan (10%) gets a New England defense that is still missing CB Christian Gonzalez and is giving up passing yard production. Bryce Young and McMillan have developed a rapport. Through 3 games he has 27 targets but has yet to find the end zone. I like him to score his first career TD on Sunday. New England has given up the 3rd most passing yards per game thus far.
• Cedric Tillman (4%) gets the Lions, who have been giving up production to opposing WRs. Granted, that’s because they have been putting up points so offenses have had to throw to stay with them. While I fully anticipate Detroit to win in the dome on Sunday, I do think this game isn’t as explosive as recent Lions games have gone. In case I’m wrong, Tillman provides a nice opportunity for a heavy reception and/or multiple score game. I’ll be putting him in lineups with the Sun God.
• Hunter Henry (5%) has seen 22 targets over the first 3 weeks. Though it’s a small samples size, week 2 looks like an outlier as he only 3 targets that game. Carolina is in the bottom half of the league vs the TE position.