DFS Picks Week 1: GPP Lineup Builder Tips

DFS Picks Week 1

WE ARE BACK!!! Welcome to Week One of the 2025 NFL season! Like usual, I am super pumped for the start of the fantasy season. I took a year off from writing about DFS GPP tournaments, but I’m back for the 2025 season. For those of you who have followed my work, you can expect a few changes to my approach this year. You may or may not notice the nuances, but let’s do a few ground rules before we get going.

1. This is a GPP article. I don’t do cash games. For many years, I wanted to be a cash game guy, but my results over a good enough sample size have produced sub 50% results. That’s not viable, so it’s guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments for me, of which I have scored decent results thus far.
2. I keep a Discord. I found it’s a much better way to post Sunday morning updates. Please click the link to join if you feel so inclined; it’s free. If there is anything in this article that needs amending prior to kickoff, it will be posted there.
3. I used to produce my own ownership percentages. Knowing ownership is huge to game theory, and it’s something that just has to be in your arsenal. That being said, my own process just isn’t efficient enough. Various websites and apps, paid and unpaid, already do this well enough for me. I won’t be re-creating them in this space. That said, the percentages next to players’ names are their projected ownership percentages as of Friday. These will change as we get closer to Sunday’s kickoff.
4. This is Week One. I don’t care what analysts are out there spouting what they think they know or don’t; we don’t have all the information yet. We have historical data as it pertains to coaches and players, tea leaves, and speculation. It will take us all a few weeks to digest that information.
5. As a nice follow-up to point 5, point 6 is to not overreact after Week One. If Emeka Egbuka goes for 73 yards and 2 TDs in Week One, or Ja’Marr Chase only has 4 catches for 61 yards, that doesn’t mean they will do that every week. Just breathe, be patient, and monitor your bankroll.
6. Don’t zero out your salary this week. Pricing is so competitive that we will be able to afford leaving salary on the table. Leaving salary is going to be a way to stand out in Week One.
7. I spent some time last year trying to develop a QB algorithm. It’s an evolving process, but it helped me identify solid plays as well as stacks a few times last year. As such, I will organize this article, as well as my DFS lineups, around QBs. I do think this may help to be different because…

QB1 – Bryce Young (sub 5%)

I know. I threw up a little in my mouth, too.

First, the Sunday slate is missing some of the stellar QBs in the NFL. Hurts, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, and others are not on the main slate. So, I’m surprised and not surprised by my equation identifying Young as the best statistical play on the slate. I always try to tell myself to remove my own personal biases, which is sometimes easier said than done. But the case for Young includes:

• Both the Jaguars and the Panthers were two of the worst defenses in football last season. While we should expect changes and some improvements, a shootout is not out of the realm of possibilities considering Young’s improvement down the 2024 stretch, as well as the hiring of Liam Coen as the Jaguars’ head coach.
• Coen turned Bucky Irving (12%) into a fantasy star. Who’s to say he can’t do that with Travie Etienne (4%) or one of the other RBs in Jacksonville against one of the worst RB defenses from a season ago? Just identifying which back could be the next Bucky Irving is a difficult task.
• If Coen and the Jags can get out front early, Young will have to take to the air to play catch-up.
• Pair him with new WR toy Tetairoa McMillan (15 – 20%) or even go deeper with someone like Xavier Legette (3%) or even Hunter Renfrow (1%).
• You can even run this the other way with Trevor Lawrence (15%), who is tied for my QB #5. Use Chubba Hubbard (8 – 10%) on the other side and stack Lawrence with Brian Thomas (16 – 20%), Travis Hunter (6%), or even Dyami Brown (1%).

QB2 – Jordan Love (2%)

DFS is not for the faint of heart, but starting low-owned plays can often take us to the leaderboards in GPPs. If I learned anything from Detroit’s playoff matchup with the Commanders, it’s that the Lions’ defense needs improvement. I also know that Jared Goff (1%) isn’t a good outdoor QB, but at least this Lambeau Field game is getting played in early September.

• If I’m new Lions OC John Morton, I’m not being overly creative or aggressive in this matchup. I would know Jared Goff’s limitations and use the well-established ground game to get out ahead of the Green Bay Packers. Look for Jahmyr Gibbs (9%) and/or David Montgomery (4%) to be featured early and often. Should the Lions get out to a lead, it will be Jordan Love throwing the ball to catch up.
• Admittedly, I hate having to decide on Packers WRs for fantasy purposes. All of Jayden Reed (1%), Romeo Doubs (2%), Matthew Golden (6%), and Dontayvion Wicks (sub 1%) are viable here in this scenario, though we should monitor actives and inactives prior to kickoff. However, I like the deep shot threats of Golden and Wicks in a situation where the Lions are nursing a lead.
• Just so you know their ownership percentages: Amon-Ra St. Brown (10%), Sam LaPorta (5%), Jameson Williams (6%), and Josh Jacobs (10 – 13%)

QB3 – Baker Mayfield (6%)

• I actually think the ownership on Baker will be higher. The Falcons and Bucs have one of the highest totals on the Sunday slate. While OC Liam Coen has absconded to Northeast Florida, Baker has now been successful under two different Tampa OCs and is now on his 3rd. The Falcons defense should be improved this year, but it may not be in Week One.
• If using Baker in a GPP tournament, that likely means one or two of his pass catchers will be there along with him. Mike Evans (10 – 15%) and Emeka Egbuka (18%) are the obvious choices and should be popular, but Cade Otton (3%) or the Buccaneers’ RBs are more contrarian, albeit risky, picks. Some pundits like to bring up Baker’s relationship with Sterling Shepard (sub 1%) (myself included haha), but that has really yet to work out since either have been in Tampa together.
• The good thing about the Falcons is that we know where the offense is going with the ball. Feel free to run it back with Bijan Robinson (12%), Drake London (15%), or Darnell Mooney (4%) (monitor injury). Hassan Reddick and Vita Vea may make the Falcons run game tough sledding, so the Falcon pass options are the move for me.
• I’m not sure if Bucky Irving and/or Rachaad White (sub 2%) will be as prolific as they were last year, but a Baker stack with one of the backs could be contrarian.

QB4 – Daniel Jones (6 – 7%)

• It really seems like it wasn’t that long ago that people were super huge on the Dolphins and their offense. While things have not gone well recently, and it certainly appears like Tyreek Hill (8 – 10%) is closer to being out of the league than being a guy who could put up over 200 yards on 4 catches, the Colts defense was not all that good last year. HC Mike McDaniel is the type of guy who can game plan well for opposing defenses, especially if given extended time. As such, I like the idea of Miami being able to get out front early in this matchup. That could be through Tyreek Hill (who needs to have a great year to maximize his next contract) or through someone like DeVon Achane (20 – 25%). For those who like more risk, Jaylen Waddle (7%), Malik Washington (2%), Ollie Gordon (2 – 3%) could be the beneficiaries as well.
• In the above scenario, Jones and the Colts will have to take to the air to keep up. Since Jones has some rushing upside, you may only need one pass catcher to go with him. I like Michael Pittman (6%) the best, but we have no idea which pass catcher Jones will mesh with first. Josh Downs (6 – 7%), deep shot Alec Pierce (1 – 2%) or even rookie TE Tyler Warren (4%) could be in play.
• Jonathan Taylor (11 – 13%) is not someone I would stack with Jones. The Colts DST (sub 2%) would be my move there.

QB5 – Jayden Daniels (13%)

• I have a bunch of love for this man. He was a huge reason why I won my big money league this past year. However, I’m not surprised that he isn’t ranked higher in my algorithm for Week One.
• The game total of 45.5 isn’t all that high considering the strength of the Commanders’ offense, so in most weekly scenarios, that’s a big red flag. However, since we don’t have any game over 50, it’s less of a problem.
• Since Daniels is a dual-threat QB, it’s quite possible that he has a rushing TD or 2 on top of his predictive 40+ rushing yards, which is equal to a throwing TD. As such, you can pair him with only one of his receiver options, an RB, or even play him solo with no teammate attached to him. Additionally, pricing is so soft this week on the DFS sites that Daniels could default into the optimal QB should none of the above scenarios work out.
• Terry McLaurin (8 – 10%), Deebo Samuel (10 – 11%), and Austin Ekeler (5%) are the pairings I would use with Daniels.
• Malik Nabers (13 – 16%) is the only one I am interested in running a Daniels stack back with. However, I’m fine treating this game as one that goes under and therefore requires limited to no DFS commitment.

DFS Picks Week 1 Honorable Mention – Joe Burrow (8%) and Joe Flacco (12%)

• Are we really going to trust chalk Joe Flacco? I actually think this game is going to be a little more popular than the above ownership numbers suggest, but I am very skeptical that there will be a plethora of fantasy points available in this one.
• I heard an interesting stat the other day. Joe Burrow has a career record of 1 – 11 in Weeks One and Two. Despite the likely loss coming the Bengals way, that doesn’t mean Burrow isn’t capable of being the optimal QB in Week One. I will have a Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (17 – 20%) stack, but this matchup is mostly a fade for me. Both teams play slow, the Bengals start the season slow, and I expect these division rivals to play one another tough. I expect the scoring to low as well.
• Jerome Ford (4%) and rookie Dylan Sampson (2%) are of interest to me. I’m not sure Sampson will be thrust into a primary role, but I do expect the Browns to slow the game down and try to methodically march down the field so as to keep Burrow and company off it. Should Ford or Sampson find the end zone once or twice, that will be a solid hit for Ford’s $5600 or Sampson’s $4900 salary.
• David Njoku (10 – 15%) has a chance to be the highest-owned TE on the slate. In a previous iteration of this offense, Njoku was a huge beneficiary with Flacco at the helm. He’s more of a one-off play for me as opposed to someone I want to stack due to game theory.
• You definitely can make the opposing argument with Chase Brown (20 – 25%), but he’s a likely game theory fade for me at that high ownership, especially if Christian McCaffrey sits. Speaking of which…

One-Offs

• Christian McCaffrey (21 – 28%). We’ve seen CMC come off a crappy season and make someone a millionaire in Week One more than once before. While I was not on him in the season, CMC will likely be featured early and often in the 49ers’ first few games. With some weapons out the door in San Fran, there could be some more touches in line for McCaffrey against Seattle. The Seahawks defense should be improved this year, so I’m considering the fade due to ownership. It may actually be easier than that as CMC didn’t practice on Friday and now may miss the game entirely. As noted above, ownership percentages will skew heavily if McCaffrey sits.
• Kenneth Walker (6%) or Zach Charbonnet (3%). I’ve made no secret about how much I like the combination of Klint Kubiak and Rick Dennison in terms of what they can do for a fantasy backfield. While some have speculated that Charbonnet is the starter here, that doesn’t track with Kubiak and Dennison’s history, as the RB1 they have inherited is usually the primary beneficiary. The 49ers have lost some talent on the defensive side of the ball too, so they can be run on.
• James Conner (14 – 17%). The Saints aren’t good, and the Cardinals’ defense is better than people think. A steady dose of the Arizona RB could be in order should the Cardinals try to keep it simple and get out of Louisiana with a solid W.
• JK Dobbins (3 – 5%). There’s a lot of buzz around rookie RB RJ Harvey in Denver, but it will be Dobbins who has first crack at RB1 for the Broncos. The Titans were not good against the run last year, but they have attempted to make improvements this year. Sean Payton and company will look to test them and rely on their stellar defense to grind this game out against rookie QB Cam Ward.
• Jaylen Warren (9 – 10%). Warren is the starting RB in Pittsburgh, at least to start the season. The Jets are planning on rolling out a wide 9 4-3 front, which can be vulnerable against the run, especially early in the season when the defense hasn’t really gelled yet. I don’t trust Aaron Rodgers not to audible out of goal-line chances so he can pad his passing stats, though. Be careful here.
• Nico Collins (8 – 9%), Jayden Higgins (sub 1%), and Jaylin Noel (sub 1%). Neither starting CB for the Rams ranked high at their position last year. Also, OC Nick Caley is coming over to Houston from the Rams, where he served as the Rams passing game coordinator. In other words, he knows this defense. I expect one of the outside WRs to benefit. Additionally, Christian Kirk has been ruled OUT of this matchup, so a new rookie could benefit, or someone like Xavier Hutchinson (sub 1%). I do expect these ownership numbers to change come Sunday morning.
• Stefon Diggs (5%). The Raiders’ secondary underwent some changes this offseason. I would think OC Josh McDaniels will find ways to exploit that with New England’s new WR as earlier as Week One.
• Elic Ayomanor (1 – 2%). On pape,r the matchup is not good, but that’s more of a Calvin Ridley problem as he is likely to matchup against Patrick Surtain. This will leave Ayomanor in a more favorable matchup in a game in which I expect the Titans to be trailing. While I don’t expect a ton of production, a couple catches and a TD could do it for a $3100 price tag. Ayomanor did put up a stat line of 13 – 294 – 3 against Travis Hunter once. There’s a reason he has won the second outside WR spot.

Week 1 Suggested Reads

• DraftKings Week One Value Picks

So that’s the direction I’m going this weekend. Be sure to check out all our other great content here at Gridiron. One last reminder to not overreact to the results in Week One. Most importantly, enjoy the games!