DFS Matchup Metrics: NFL DraftKings Week 9
Week 9 DFS Matchup Metrics
Welcome into the Week 9 edition of the DFS Matchup Metrics article with stats provided by The Quant Edge! Last week wasn’t the best week we’ve ever had and only DeSean Jackson paid off. That’s the variance we live with when we use players that are in the price range we look at but the goal is always to hit all four players. The one receiver that I will have a ton of but won’t write up is Courtland Sutton for Denver. Frankly, he’s going to be a massive chalk play in cash so we’ll focus on other players. Let’s get back at it this week to try and hit all four!
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I’m not great at projecting ownership but I would have to imagine Moore is going to be chalky as well. There’s very good reason for that and he’ll be in a lot of my lineups as well. Not only has the Tampa Bay defense given up 10 touchdowns to slot receivers in just seven games, they’re bleeding yards and receptions to the slot as well. The Panthers have been moving Moore around the formation quite a bit but 40 percent of the time he’s in the slot. That should mean big things for the rookie on the rise again this week.
Torrey Smith is out of the lineup again this week which should mean Moore gets at least the 70 percent of the snaps he saw last week. Even if he’s not in the slot all the time, the Bucs defense is getting crushed from every position. Moore is too cheap and he grants us salary to pay for some of the other studs on the slate.
I don’t expect Amendola to get involved in throwing passes like he did last week but I do expect him to keep getting targets in the Dolphins offense. He’s averaging eight targets a game since Brock Osweiler came under center and that’s going to be plenty to pay off his modest tag. The best part is he draws a very solid individual matchup against Buster Skrine.
The Jets are giving up the third most points to receivers so far this year and the Dolphins running game hasn’t been the most effective phase of their game. Amendola has a plus matchup from a team and individual perspective, a good price and fairly reliable target volume. It’s always a little scary to buy into Osweiler but Amendola has worked well with him so far.
Watkins would have been one of the highest owned players on the slate had Tyreek Hill missed this contest but since Hill is shaping up to be active, Watkins might fall by the wayside a little bit. Watkins is always going to be a solid option in one of the best offenses in the NFL and the Browns have gotten whacked by receivers so far, giving up the eighth most points on the season. The Browns might also be without Damarious Randall, who missed the whole week of practice and is questionable at best.
Now, not all of these stats look like they’re in favor of the matchup being better without Randall. The main thing to takeaway from this is the pass success rate takes a seven percent jump without Randall. Over time, all the other metrics would eventually catch up to that success rate and regression is likely to hit in a hurry against Patrick Mahomes and Watkins.
I will be very honest and say that this slate is not great for tight ends and I will likely not use too much of any player under O.J. Howard at $4,300. However, if you want to dip down further than that, Hurst is a very intriguing tournament play this week. Last week saw the rookies snap share jump to around 44 percent. While he did catch his touchdown from Lamar Jackson in garbage time, Hurst could be becoming a bigger part of the offense. He also gets a matchup that could be exploited this week against Steelers corner Mike Hilton. Hurst has lined up in the slot roughly 45 percent.
What sticks out is the fact that Hilton is a good deal worse in zone coverage, which is about 61 percent of the time. Hurst excels in that coverage and is a great match. The tight ends for the Ravens tortured the Steelers in the first matchup. They combined for near 100 yards on 10 receptions. Now if Hurst can see even half of that, he smashes his price.
Good Luck this week!