DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 8
Welcome into the Week 8 edition of DFS Matchup Metrics. The goal of this weekly article is to try and find some sleepers to help you win some money on DraftKings! Last week wasn’t a week that will go down as one of our best. Devin Funchess and David Njoku were good to us but Jermaine Kearse and Taylor Gabriel left us high and dry. I was especially surprised at Kearse and his no-show performance but that leads us perfectly into a subject to touch on before we dive in here – bankroll strategy and contest selection.
The midway point in the NFL fantasy season is always a great time to refresh some strategy to attack the DFS landscape. Potentially the most important thing you can do is manage your bankroll in a smart fashion. Nobody should really be playing more than 10-15 percent of your total bankroll any week. There’s just too much variance in sports to ever feel 100 percent confident about an outcome. This is not a new train of thought, CainoGuru Experts have the same sort of money management principles and using this same strategy for years. Despite the fact that long-term statistics work against you, it’s quite common to go to a casino, play, win, and leave with your winnings, you just need to be smart about your approach. The same strategy can work with Daily Fantasy Sports.
Last week is the perfect illustration. No matter how many metrics pointed to Kearse, there is still an outcome where he puts up zero points(he did). If you are playing more than 10-15 percent of your total bankroll, that could have really crushed you moving forward. If you were smart and not betting a huge amount on any given week, you can shake it off and try again in Week 8.
The other main component is to understand what type of player you are. Contest selection is so important. If you’re not a big-time player, there’s no need to wade into the waters with the “sharks” and play contests that permit 150 entries. If you’re playing a single lineup against someone playing 150, the odds against you obviously increase exponentially. The $1,00,000 top prize is glittery but sticking to single or three entry contests will provide a more consistent return. Also, take the few minutes to check the payout percentage on a given contest. If one contest pays 27 percent and another plays 22 percent, you always want to play the one that gives you the best chance to cash. Let’s get to work for Week 8!
The data used in this article was provided by: The Quant Edge
What if I told you, you could get a piece of the game that has the highest over/under on the slate, attached to one of the best quarterbacks we’ve ever seen for just 10 percent of your salary? That’s what Allison represents this week and he finds himself in what is quietly a good matchup. Ever since Aqib Talib has been out of the Rams lineup, the Rams defense has suffered pretty significantly in the passing game.
Anytime a team plays the Rams, they’re going to have to score at least 30 points to have a shot at knocking off the remaining undefeated team in the league. We’ve never seen Aaron Rodgers be this big of an underdog according to the Vegas and he’ll welcome Allison back into the fold at a great time. When Allison was in the lineup, he averaged just a little over seven targets a game and has show downfield ability, still owning the highest aDOT on the team with receivers who have more than 10 targets. This game should be a blast to watch in Allison makes a ton of sense this week.
I won’t lie, it’s a touch gross to write up Thomas for this week. I’m pretty sure this is the first time he’s been a recommended play from me in any platform that I write for. Here’s the deal – he’s going to see 7-8 targets in a game where the Broncos are almost sure to be trailing. The volume shouldn’t be in question at all and even though he had a poor game in Denver against the Chiefs earlier, it looks a whole lot different if he and Case Keenum were on the same page late. He could have caught a touchdown pass that changes the day. Thomas runs about 40 percent of his routes out of the slot, which could lead to a very nice day against the main slot corner, Kendall Fuller.
It seems like Thomas is safely in Denver at least through this week and it’s entirely possible the Broncos try to feature him as much as they can since the trade rumors are swirling around him. Regardless of what the Broncos would like to be, they’re going to have to be pass heavy in this one. Thomas has about a 20 percent market share of the targets and I’ll take the discount, pinch my nose and hope that garbage time is kind to me.
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It will be very interesting to see how ownership shakes out this week. Despite only 10 games on the main slate, there are three games with an over/under above 53 points and the Bengals facing the Buccaneers might have the most amount of options in it. One the could potentially get overlooked is Jackson. He’s always a little hit and miss so this is best served as a tournament play, but let’s look at where he could break off a big play.
Jackson will run as the right receiver right around half the time. That means he’s going to see Dre Kirkpatrick for most of those snaps. While Kirkpatrick has held his own this year, look at the go route metric. It’s one of the passes that Kirkpatrick defends the worst by rating and he’s given up both touchdowns to that route. If there’s anything we know about Jackson, he’s got the speed to make it happen deep and it only takes one play to find paydirt for a boatload of DK points.
This could be a really great pivot over some of the more popular tight end options. By no means, I wouldn’t talk anyone off of C.J. Uzomah of the Bengals or O.J. Howard of the Bucs this week. They’re great plays but McDonald is sandwiched in between those players in salary and may go somewhat unnoticed. The Steelers have faced the Browns once this year but McDonald was not active for that game. In his stead, Jesse James caught five passes for 60 yards. McDonald is the better receiver and has the chance for at least the same game, if not better against T.J. Carrie most of the time.
Ben Roethlisberger tends to have better games at home and the Steelers are coming out of their bye, having some extra rest and time to get ready for this one. McDonald has been a pretty steady secondary option for the offense and draws a very nice matchup with the talent to take advantage of it.