DFS Matchup Metrics: NFL DraftKings Week 7
DFS Matchup Metrics: NFL DraftKings Week 7
We’re back for more action in Week 7 and we’re looking to replicate the success we found last week in this space! Three of the four featured players hit for at least 15 DK points and the player that didn’t suffer an injury. That’s a pretty solid success rate and TheQuantEdge is doing great work to point us in the right direction. This slate is pretty interesting as there are at least six high-profile offenses on a bye week or not on the main slate this week so finding the value to pay for the studs available is going to be imperative. Let’s get to work!
DFS Sleepers Fueled By The Quant Edge
The data used for this article was provided by The Quant Edge, an advanced DFS tool website that features a lineup optimizer guided by DFS experts with original content. One of the best features at TQE is their WR/CB matchup tool. This exclusive player comparison tool is awesome for researching potential matchups and digging for DFS sleepers.
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DraftKings – $4,100
The Jets option in Quincy Enunwa left us out in the cold last week but I’m willing to go right back to the well with this team. Kearse is in an excellent spot and he showed chemistry with Sam Darnold last week after Enunwa left with an injury. To be fair, that connection was building with or without Enunwa’s injury but now Kearse has the role to himself. Kearse caught nine of his 10 targets last week for 94 yards and that would be an excellent outcome for this game given his price. We look for 3x return on the price and another 18+ point effort would be about 4.5x. Kearse is going to be in a game where the Jets should be trailing and he gets potentially the best matchup of any Jets receiver on top of that. Mackenzie Alexander plays the slot corner position for the Vikings and things haven’t gone well for him.
The fact he hasn’t given up a touchdown yet with all of the other numbers has to be a miracle. Kearse has seen his route rate in the slot skyrocket to over 75 percent and that should actually continue to climb upwards. Xavier Rhodes is going to be on the outside basically every single snap so the Jets would be wise to leave Kearse right where he’s been at. Expect a nice game from Kearse in this spot for a ver palatable price tag.
DraftKings – $4,700
Gabriel was signed by the Chicago Bears this offseason as a free agent to very little fanfare but he’s actually out-producing Allen Robinson this year in fantasy points. Not only is he a $1,400 savings from the Bears “Number 1” receiver, but the Patriots and coach Bill Belichick have a well-documented history of doing their best to shut down the other team’s best receiver. The Bears have moved Gabriel all over the formation so it’s a little tougher to draw a bead on who’s going to cover him on a snap by snap basis. However, New England has moved around Eric Rowe just as much.
What really catches my eye in these numbers isn’t exactly the route chart. It’s the Coverage metrics. Rowe has been deployed in press or man coverage over 70 percent of the time and Gabriel has really excelled against that specific type of coverage. This game could be high scoring and Gabriel has seen at least five targets in every single week so far. I’ll take my chances in that game environment with a price under $5,000 more often than not.
DraftKings – $5,300
You won’t find me writing up Devin Funchess very often. He’s not one of my favorite players for any type of fantasy but i believe he’s in a good enough spot to warrant consideration this week. Funchess is going to see an awful lot of Ronald Darby this week and that could work out for Funchess. Darby has been targeted a ton and the weak spot in the Eagles defense has been against the pass so far.
The one spot where Funchess struggles is against press-jam coverage. The problem for the Eagles is at least by this season’s data, Darby has only been asked to press four percent of the time. If Funchess is getting free releases off the line, he’s going to present issues for Philly. Funchess has a five-inch height advantage over Darby and if sees some of Jalen Mills as well, that shouldn’t be an issue. Mills is giving up a passer rating of 112.6 and Funchess is four inches taller than Mills as well. Carolina will need to put up points against Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. Funchess should be a solid bet this week.
DraftKings – $4,200
The Browns tight end might be one of my favorite plays of the entire slate. Jarvis Landry is going to get a ton of attention and despite his lack of production the past couple of weeks, he deserves it. With the trade of Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb and maybe even Duke Johnson will be getting a lot of publicity. That’s all fine because Njoku could go very under-owned. The Bucs are not only the worst team against tight ends on a points per game basis but now are missing multiple players on their defensive line. The first is Vinny Curry, which doesn’t help the defense by any stretch. The main cog that hurts this defense is Gerald McCoy.
The pass success rate and explosive pass percentage both really take off with McCoy off the field and that makes a world of sense. If there’s no pressure on the quarterback coming from right up the middle, it’s a lot easier to complete passes. Njoku has seen an average of 10 targets a game since Baker Mayfield took over and that’s wide receiver level targets. Granted, the production hasn’t been there yet but if there was ever a “get right” spot, this is it. Njoku is just the ninth most expensive tight end on the board and he’s a slam dunk for me on this slate.
Good Luck this week