DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 6
We’re back for more in Week 6 and only one of the sleepers hit last week, Mohamed Sanu. Dede Westbrook was very average and Ricky Seals-Jones and Doug Baldwin combined for exactly one catch for five yards. Needless to say, that’s not the results we’re looking for and I’m still baffled by those latter two players coming up so small in their respective spots. Baldwin especially was a disappointment since he played well over 85 percent of the snaps. Let’s move on to happier times and Week 6!
DraftKings – $4,400
I won’t write up Mohamed Sanu for the second straight week even though he’s an excellent play. Instead, we’ll pivot to the other side of this game and take the cheapest of the Tampa receivers who get Jameis Winston back at quarterback. Godwin has been moved around a lot this season but he will run about 66 percent of his routes on the left and from the slot. Brian Poole is the slot corner for the Falcons and he’s been terrible but so has Robert Alford.
Godwin isn’t running a ton of snaps, which might be a little frustrating. Despite that, he should pay off at his price tag since he’s cheap and due to the fact that he has the most red zone targets of any Tampa receiver. None of the secondary members of the Falcons is playing that well past Desmond Trufant but he’ll have his hands full with Mike Evans as much as possible. Combine all of that with the game environment of being on of the highest projected scores on the slate and Atlanta’s defense giving up the second most points in football, you have a great way to get exposure to this very popular game.
DraftKings – $5,600
I’m going a little higher in price to highlight a really good “buy-low” opportunity in Enunwa. Plenty of players will steer clear of him after he dropped a goose egg last week and I think that’s going to be a mistake. Despite Robby Anderson being more involved in the past couple of weeks, Enunwa still owns double the amount of targets. He’s actually been more involved out of the slot but is still hovering around 50 percent from that alignment. That means he’s going to see Nate Hairston a lot and that should slide an advantage towards Enunwa.
In addition to leading the team in targets by a wide margin, he’s also the team leader in targets inside the red zone. The Indy defense has started to slide back to where we thought they might be when the season started and that means it’s not a unit to fear. The Jets are at home, potentially without one of their best running backs in Isaiah Crowell and not many folks will be on Enunwa. He could be a very low-owned play that makes a big difference this week.
DraftKings – $4,500
We don’t have to go very far to find our next value since he’s on the other side of the ball in this very game. With T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle once again out for the Colts, Andrew Luck will have to rely on someone to make some plays. Eric Ebron is also highly questionable and even with him in the lineup the past two weeks, Rogers has received 11 targets in each game. He’s turned that into 18.5 and 14.6 DK points the past two weeks and there’s not much reason to think that doesn’t happen again.
Skrine has been getting beat up and Rogers has the speed to turn one of these targets into a long touchdown. It doesn’t hurt that Luck has been looking better the past couple of games to the point where he looked almost all the way back in Week 5. 22 of his 59 passing attempts traveled at least 10 yards through the air and that’s a great sign moving forward. Rogers could be an excellent cheap play with his target total and the ceiling could be quite higher.
DraftKings – $3,500
Maybe this is a little mainstream but tight end is a disaster on this slate. Zach Ertz has already played and Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce play in the same game Sunday night. The highest price tight end is Eric Ebron and he might not even play. So even if Hooper is chalky, it’s likely still going to be the right play. $3,500 is easy to fit into just about any lineup and Tampa is giving up the most points per game to tight ends in football. Atlanta has been using Hooper in the slot and that always helps get my attention. What really gets me excited is seeing what the Buccaneers slot corner M.J. Stewart has to offer.
Stewart is not an every-down player for Tampa but he’s seeing more than half the snaps so that’s plenty good enough for Hooper to win this matchup. Let’s be honest, it’s not like the rest of the Tampa defense is playing at a very high level either. Matt Ryan is going to slice through this Bucs defense like a knife through butter with any shred of playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Hooper is one of the best tight end options on the board, regardless of ownership.
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