DFS Matchup Metrics: NFL DraftKings Week 5
DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 5
After we took a little bit of a break last week, we’re back to dissect the Week 5 slate and try to find the value plays that are going to help you fit all those stud plays into your lineup! It’s a pretty interesting slate since some of the more popular players like Tyler Boyd and Sterling Shepard have seen their prices rise to a point where they’re not exactly values anymore. That doesn’t mean they’re bad plays, but we’re going to head to other players to give you more salary to work with. Let’s dive into it!
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DraftKings – $4,700
Westbrook might be flying under the radar a little bit but he could really pay off this week. He’s the target and reception leader on the Jacksonville offense, in part because they don’t have an alpha receiver. The game itself is fascinating since the Chiefs offense will face their toughest challenge in the Jaguars defense. It’s fair to assume that Jacksonville might need to score a little more points than normal and that might lead them to utilize Blake Bortles and the passing game more often since Leonard Fournette is out. There is also the chance that the Chiefs can score more points than the Jaguars are accustomed to so that could mean additional opportunities in the passing game. Westbrook has been in the slot almost exclusively and while Chief corner Kendall Fuller has a good reputation, he hasn’t lived up to it this season.
There should be ample opportunity in a good matchup, despite being on the road. Westbrook looks like a very solid play no matter what metric you like to look at.
DraftKings – $5,000
I’m really not a fan of the Seahawks offense right now, especially since they’re trying to go smash mouth and run the ball more than they likely should. However, Baldwin came out of this past game without re-aggravating the injuries that have plagued him through the early season. His price is down to $5,000 and it seems pretty reasonable to say that the Seahawks are going to have to score a boatload of points to have a prayer to keep up with the powerful Rams offense. Baldwin should see at least 10 targets in this spot, as he played over 75 percent of the snaps last week. Baldwin does have a fairly difficult individual matchup with slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman but we saw what this kind of game script does to receiving weapons. Thursday night we saw the Colts get down to the Patriots by a pretty significant number and then the offense for the Colts still ended up with a good fantasy day. In addition, could the absence of Aqib Talib be a bigger factor than we thought?
It’s fair to note that Talib has only missed one game and that came against a much more highly skilled passing offense of the Vikings. Still, if this is the start of a trend, it always pays off to be on the front end of it than trying to play catchup. Baldwin is simply too cheap for his potential production in a game script that the Rams will be missing one of their best corners.
DraftKings – $4,000
Sanu is part of the game that has the highest over/under on the slate by a massive five points. If that isn’t enough, Sanu has the second highest snap rate of any Falcons player and has the second most targets. The touchdown rate for teammate Calvin Ridley has skewed the perception of his role in the offense since he has six trips to the end zone on just 15 receptions. Sanu is potentially the cheapest way to get exposure to this game and feel comfortable with the amount of targets he’ll receive. What is super interesting is Sanu does draw the “hardest” matchup in the slot against Mike Hilton.
So why would you chase Sanu? Because there are three other corners that are giving up a passer rating of 120.0 or above and Sanu is still going to see some of that coverage. Also, Hilton has been worse in zone and man coverage and that’s coverage that Sanu has excelled in. The Steelers defense isn’t very good and the Falcons offense has been red hot. Sanu will still see plaenty of work to pay off his $4,000 price tag.
DraftKings – $2,900
Tight end is just a waking nightmare down towards the bottom rung but there is some value to be found. The 49ers haven’t given up a ton of yards but they have given up the one thing that is gold for tight ends: touchdowns. They lead the league with four given up already and Seals-Jones has been a consistent part of the offense so far this season. Sure, 4-5 targets a game isn’t a lot but that’s what you get in this price range. If you’ve read this article before, I love targeting tight ends when they run a lot of their routes in the slot and that’s what we have here.
Seals-Jones is 6’5″ and 225 pounds going against a 5’9″, 183 pound Williams out of the slot and he has about every possible advantage in this matchup. Larry Fitzgerald might still not be 100 percent and that’s going to mean even more potential work for Seals-Jones. The touchdown equity is extremely high for a player in this price range.
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