DFS Matchup Metrics: NFL DraftKings Week 3
The season is moving fast, it’s already week 3 in the NFL. By now, you’ve already read a few chalky daily fantasy articles for the week, but thanks to the tools at The Quant Edge, this article should open your eyes to some deep DFS sleepers. Let’s see if we can find some great values this week!
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$5,100 on DraftKings
Woods checks in as our most expensive player so far in this column but I really feel like there is a good reason for that. Also, I will generally try to stay under the $5,000 barrier as we go along. The Rams passing game has been even better than last year, as quarterback Jared Goff has seen stats like yards per attempt, yards per game and completion percentage take a jump in the right direction. His touchdown rate has dropped but that can be partly explained by the fact of Todd Gurley getting 17 red zone touches so far, including 15 rushing attempts.
Woods is often regarded as the third wheel in the receiving corps but so far he is tied for the most targets and has the highest aDOT of the three. It’s a little surprising that he’s at a 14.9 mark while a speed demon like Brandin Cooks sitting at 12.3. Woods does not possess the red zone share that Cooper Kupp does but Woods could be set up for a breakout this week.
Woods will matchup against Chargers slot corner Desmond King right around 50 percent of the time this week. While King has a good reputation as a corner in the NFL, it does look like there might be a weakness to his game and it comes in zone coverage.
Woods has been excellent against zone coverage while King has struggled. Coach Sean McVay might already be one of the better coaches in exploiting individual matchups and if Woods is going to see this much zone, it’s going to be a big day. The receiving options in this range are loaded and Woods will probably be the least owned receiver on his own team, giving a potential advantage this week.
$4,600 on DraftKings
It seems a little weird to say but the Jaguars need to continue to let quarterback Blake Bortles play a little bit more open like he did this past week. You may have seen them by now, but his four-game stats when Leonard Fournette has been out of the lineup are insane. If we extrapolated the stats out, he’s on a 5,000-yard pace for passing yards and he averages 2.25 passing yards a game. If the Jaguars want to win the Super Bowl, they can’t view Bortles as a liability any longer and handcuff him when Fournette is playing.
One of the reasons that Bortles performed last week was Dede Westbrook, who has occupied the slot for the majority of these two games. We tried to pick on the Titans slot corner Logan Ryan last week with Ryan Griffin but Westbrook should be a lot better this week. Everything points to Westbrook here.
The Jaguars have potentially put together the best receiving corps from top to bottom in the time that Bortles has been there. Allen Robinson might not be there anymore but there is legitimate talent among these players. Keelan Cole may have drawn the attention with his spectacular catch last week but don’t forget about Westbrook when making your lineup this week.
$3,700 on DraftKings
Oh look, another slot receiver in a great matchup! I’m frankly a little surprised that Boyd is so cheap since the Bengals played on the Thursday night game before this slate was released. Boyd smashed the Ravens defense with six receptions, 91 yards and a touchdown for 21.1 DraftKings points. Boyd has been in the slot over 70 percent of the time and that means he’s going to work against Captain Munnerlyn almost exclusively from that spot. Munnerlyn has been struggling through two weeks, giving up a passer rating of over 105.
Boyd has seen all 14 of his targets from the slot and he’s drawn a little over double the targets that John Ross has. Until further notice, Boyd is the number two receiver in the Bengals offense. Cincinnati might be in a game where they trail if Carolina quarterback Cam Newton doing what he’s capable of. Boyd only needs a little under 12 points to return value at his far too low price this week.
$2,900 on DraftKings
We all know that tight end might be the toughest position in all of fantasy football. There’s just not that many reliable players on a weekly basis but did you know that Hooper is actually the TE11 in PPR formats right now? He’s actually second on the Falcons in targets(granted, only at nine targets) and if he converts an attempt in Philadelphia, he’d have scored in both games so far. It’s crazy to think that Hooper is just 23 years old and we could be on the verge of a mini-breakout.
The Falcons have well-documented issues in the red zone but Hooper is leading in targets with three. Now he’s in a game that has the fourth highest over/under this week according to Bovada and gets a defense that has already given up over 650 yards passing. The way the Falcons have used him so far has been fascinating as well and if he continues to line up in the slot about half the time, he’s got an advantageous matchup with Patrick Robinson.
He’s about the lowest priced tight end that I’d be willing to start this week. If he sees another five targets in this game, I think he can easily smash his price tag. The big factor is if this game really does shoot out like it could, Hooper might have some major upside.
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