DFS Matchup Metrics: NFL DraftKings Week 16
DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 16
We’re back for another week of NFL DFS action and we’ll be trying to find some great cheap plays for receivers because there are a ton of high-end options that we want to pay for this week. As always, our data will be provided by The Quant Edge and last week was a little rough. That was more of a statement on how bad the slate overall was because value receivers were very difficult to come by. This week isn’t quite as bad so we have a better chance at finding the plays that could vault you into some good money this week. Let’s go to work!
- Learn more about the tools and metrics behind TQE with our Review on The Quant Edge.
I’m making an exception to my normal rule of $5,000 or less because Jeffery is simply too cheap for this spot. Since the Eagles played Sunday night and the pricing came out already, it didn’t adjust to Jeffery and his connection with Nick Foles. They hooked up for eight receptions on eight targets last week for 160 yards and draw a solid matchup again this week, especially if Jonathan Joseph can’t suit up this week. He was downgraded to a DNP Friday, which isn’t always the best sign for Sunday availability.
Even if Joseph is in, Jeffery moves around the formation so much the Eagles will be able to get him looks away from the corner. Foles looked like he recaptured the magic from the last postseason run a little bit and has a certain fearlessness about him when he’s under center. Jeffery should benefit this week yet again and should have been at least $6,000 on DK this week.
Anderson has been off the reservation pretty much the entire season until these past two weeks. That’s not always been his fault as the offense has been suspect many weeks and the quarterback play has been iffy at best. Granted, that will stay the same but the Packers secondary isn’t something that’s going to concern you all that much. The Packers have given up 20 touchdowns to the receiver position and Jaire Alexander is considered their best corner by many. He’s not exactly at a shutdown level yet.
With the uptick in targets the past two weeks for Anderson(seven in each game) and Sam Darnold talking about him a good bit in the media, it really seems like he could have a nice day given his price tag. Anything over about 13 DK points would be a big bonus and there’s a significant ceiling above that.
Given some of the other receivers in this game, Smith might go practically unnoticed. Considering he has a total of 3.5 DK points over the past three games, I can’t say anyone is wrong to overlook him. However, it’s important to note that the Saints have been on the road. Their offense is totally different away from the some and the last time they were at home, Smith exploded for 34.7 DK points. I don’t think that’s all that likely to repeat but I will say he will avoid Joe Haden for the Steelers on a fair amount of snaps. If he sees Coty Sensabaugh, the sky is the limit.
There’s going to be a lot of attention on this game but Smith should not be overlooked in GPP. He’s not a cash play at all, but if you’re taking a chance in this game he might have the highest ceiling of any player that isn’t named Michael Thomas or Antonio Brown.
The cheap tight ends are terrible(stop me if you’ve heard that before) but Jarwin stands out among the rest due to matchup and looking more involved in the offense lately. We’ve seen Jarwin with back to back weeks of seven targets and he’s had at least 40 yards in each matchup. Tampa has allowed over 960 yards to tight ends so far and if Jarwin happens to score, you’re pretty much home free at that point. He also sees plenty of work in the slot, which is something that I’ve always loved to try and chase.
Make no mistake that the offense runs through Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper, but Dallas would be even more dangerous if they could find a threat to go along with those two players. There’s a chance they may be finding a reasonable threat at the tight end position with Jarwin and there are not many better defenses to rack up points against than Tampa.