DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 15
Welcome into the Week 15 edition of the DFS Matchup Metrics article, with data provided by The Quant Edge! Last week was pretty solid, with Michael Gallup being the lone letdown. What was especially frustrating was he got behind the defense at least twice and Dak Prescott missed him. Adam Humphries wasn’t anything special but he was a lot better than Chris Godwin was. I won’t lie to you guys – this week is difficult to peg some cheap receivers. There’s just not a lot to pick from and we might be a little riskier than would be normal this week. With that being said, let’s get after it!
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Is Shepard going to be chalk with Odell Beckham out and pricing being a little more difficult than it was last week? My best guess would be yes, even though Shepard underwhelmed last week without Beckham. The difference is A. the Titans should be able to keep it closer than Washington and B. he didn’t face Malcolm Butler last week.
By the metrics so far, Shepard wouldn’t face Butler all that often since he’s spent most of his season in the slot. However, it would make a lot sense for the Giants to try and get Shepard on Butler as much as possible. He’s a talented receiver and has a big opportunity coming this week. The price tag just makes too much sense with a lot of high end running backs that player will want this week.
Brown started off this season really hot and was proving how good he could be when he stayed healthy. The injury to Joe Flacco ground everything to a halt but there might be some light at the end of the tunnel this week. For one, he actually scored a touchdown last week. Yes, the receptions and yards are certainly not what you’re looking for but Brown hasn’t got any worse these past few weeks. It’s been the dramatic shift in philosophy for Baltimore with Lamar Jackson under center, running the ball constantly. Jackson is a work in progress but does get to face one of the worst defenses in football this week. Brown also gets a very favorable spot against Brent Grimes.
If the Ravens want to sneak into the playoffs and do any damage, the threat of the passing game has to be there at some point. The running game and the defense can win in a lot of ball games but the lack of a passing game will come back to bite them at some point. This is the defense they need to start taking their shots on and Brown has some very sneaky upside in a spot that we’ve targeted all season long.
We’ve come to the point where I’m writing up a Raiders wide receiver. My stomach drops just thinking of it but this is what the week brings us. The Bengals defense is one of the worst units in the NFL and the past two weeks have been good to Nelson. He’s seen 18 targets and hauled in 16 for a total of 145 yards. He lines up in a bunch of different spots along the formation but potentially the best one is from the slot.
The Bengals have tied for the fourth most passing touchdowns surrendered and the fourth most yards per game so if there was ever a time to take a chance on Nelson, this is it. Jordy is also second on the team in red zone targets with nine, despite missing a game already this year. The chance at a touchdown and 50-60 yards seems very high this week.
I will be making every effort to have one of Eric Ebron, Rob Gronkowski or even Jared Cook in my lineups at tight end this week. However, salary is precious at this point. If you’re spending down at the position, Uzomah is the perfect way to go. The Raiders have been the stone cold worst against tight ends so far this year, allowing over 900 yards, 9 touchdowns and 67 receptions. Rookie Nick Nelson has taken over in the slot and that hasn’t gone well so far.
Uzomah doesn’t have the highest ceiling and I wouldn’t worry too much about the low total last week. He faced Derwin James for some of that game and James is excellent for the Chargers. The matchup is about as far on the opposite end of the spectrum as we can go. Uzomah should be a solid 9-12 DK point player this week.
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