DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 14
Welcome into the Week 14 edition of the DFS Matchup Metrics article, with data provided by The Quant Edge! Last week was a pretty awesome week as we highlighted three receivers that really had good weeks. Chris Godwin and Courtland Sutton smashed their price tag while Bruce Ellington did exactly what you needed based on price. The lone player not to join the party was David Njoku but three out of four players as still a successful week. We’re going to try to make it four for four this week so let’s get to work!
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I was on Chris Godwin last week with no DeSean Jackson for Tampa and I think Godwin is a great play yet again. However, if you want to take the receiver at a lower ownership with a similar range of outcomes at a lower ownership, Humphries is where to head. First, his targets rank second on the team through the season behind only Mike Evans. All of the players not named Evans are grouped very close together but it’s still notable Humphries leads that group. Secondly, Humphries draws a matchup that we have targeted relentlessly all year long and that’s the Saints slot corner P.J. Williams.
As you can see, Williams has been a liability all year and this week should not be any exception. There is some concern about the weather in Tampa this week but any type of issue with that could push more targets to Humphries. He has the lowest aDOT of any receiver at 6.3 yards compared to at least 11 for Godwin and Evans. The Saints offense should bounce back and Tampa is going to need to score. Humphries should get his this week regardless of any other factors.
Given the injury to Emmanuel Sanders for the Broncos, I would imagine plenty of folks will like Courtland Sutton for $100 more. I have a feeling Sutton is a little bit of a trap. He was great last week in one of the best spots you could have but he’s now the de-facto number one option in a mediocre passing game. I’m not sure he’s prepared for that so give me Pettis instead. He’s flourished in his role without Pierre Garcon and now gets a Denver secondary without Chris Harris Jr. The largest amount of his routes have come from the right side of the formation, meaning he could see Bradley Roby on said routes.
On top of all of this, 34 percent of the routes for Pettis have come from the slot, which is a spot that is now vacated by the absence of Harris. San Francisco is the walking wounded and they will want to continue to feature Pettis to figure out what the receiver corps will look like in 2019. Pettis is a great pivot from Sutton and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Pettis flat outscores him.
I will stress that Gallup is strictly reserved for tournament settings only but I think he has a very good chance at having a solid game. I was one of the critics of the Cowboys for giving up a first-round draft pick for Amari Cooper but he’s been everything they could have asked for since he got to Dallas. He’s also been the WR8 in PPR but that is going to open up opportunities for the number two in the passing game and that looks like it’s becoming Gallup. He’s seen 5, 6 and 7 targets in the past three weeks and the Eagles have struggled against the pass all season.
With the injury to Ronald Darby, Rasul Douglas has entered the starting lineup and these two will face off more often than not. While the numbers for Gallup look paltry at best, it’s important to remember that Gallup was thrown into duty he likely wasn’t ready for. Now that Cooper is running beside him, things are pointing up for Gallup and this is a good week to play a very sneaky receiver option.
With the injury to Greg Olsen, there’s a massive role in the Carolina passing game that needs to be filled and it looks like Thomas might be the man to fill it. Olsen was a little over a 13 percent target share, which is no small amount. While the Panthers passing game probably has not had more talent overall than in any other point in Cam Newton’s career, the tight end is still integrated into the offense. The Cleveland defense is also going to be without one of their best players and it’s going to hurt them.
Even with a healthy Ward, the Browns have given up 75 receptions and over 700 yards to the tight end position. Seeing as how there are a plethora of cheap running backs, people may spend up at tight end. Thomas seems like a really nice way to take a different route this week.
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