DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 12
Welcome into the Week 12 edition of the DFS Matchup Metrics article with data provided by The Quant Edge! After the real-life job interfered with last week, we’re back in action and ready to find some values for the Week 12 slate. It’s truly an interesting one as there might only be one high end running back over $8,000 to play. As of this writing, Melvin Gordon seems legitimately questionable for this week, which would leave just Saquon Barkley as the only high priced back. Having said that, everyone is going to want to jam in a lot of stud players and a nice value receiver or the right punt at tight end is going to go a long way towards achieving that goal. Let’s go to work, starting with what might wind up a popular option.
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Moore likely would have garnered some attention no matter what considering his monster game last week of 31.7 DK points. He’s flashed this season and it happened against Baltimore four games back. Moore was very popular the following week against Tampa and was a dud the following two weeks with a combined 12.3 DK points. Some of that is due to the nature of the Carolina offense that can spread the ball around. Some of it is that’s just what happens with rookie receivers. This week it appears as though Devin Funchess will be inactive, opening up over 20 percent of the targets for the Panthers. In addition, Moore has been seeing a largest number of his routes in the slot. That would pit him against Justin Coleman, who isn’t anything to be worried about.
What’s very noticeable is the best part of Coleman’s game has been when he can get press coverage. Moore has really excelled at that so far in his young career, and has been excellent despite any type of other coverage as well. The Carolina passing game will likely replace the Funchess targets by committee but Moore is a strong option to lead that group this week.
I want to be crystal clear in saying Ross and the following receiver are GPP plays only because the floor is incredibly low for them. It’s being reported that A.J. Green is on the wrong side of questionable right now which leaves a lot of production for the other skill players in the Bengals offense to pick up. In the previous two games that Green has missed, Ross has stepped up(sort of). The final lines have been underwhelming but the DK points have actually been in the double digits both games. Ross would see Denzel Ward on a significant chunk of his routes but Ward hasn’t achieved a level that i would run away from yet.
The man coverage is stark because that is the weakest point for Ward and the strongest facet of Ross’s game so far this year. Ross holds a slight edge on aDOT the past two weeks over Tyler Boyd and would be my favorite candidate to break off a huge touchdown. The Browns defense has had a bye to rest up but they have slipped in recent weeks, potentially due to how many total snaps they’ve played. Ross could be invisible this week but there’s strong reason to think he can pay off his reasonable price tag.
Again, I stress this is GPP only but Bourne has been a part of this San Francisco offense the past two weeks. The production also looks fairly mediocre but it might be fair to say this is the worst defense the 49ers have faced in that span. Yes, he played the Raiders but the 49ers were so much in control of that game from the word go, they didn’t need to keep their foot on the gas. That shouldn’t be the case this week since Tampa can score points and this game currently sports the highest over/under on the slate. Bourne has seen eight targets the past two weeks and the Bucs have given up 42 passing plays of 20+ yards and are tied for the lead in passing touchdowns surrendered. Bourne moves around a got deal but will get Carlton Davis the most.
I’ll take my chances with a receiver that cheap in a game that projects to be high scoring and should see a nice chunk of the target share. Bourne would be a super low-owned player from this game that could do some damage in a GPP if he hits.
I really wanted to write up Nick Vannett or Ed Dickson from the Seahawks since the Panthers are terrible at guarding the tight end but they aren’t seeing enough volume to make me comfortable. Instead, I’ll turn to McDonald who’s going to find himself in a very fun spot this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster as seen virtually all of his production out of the slot, which means he will almost be guaranteed to see Chris Harris most of the game. I respect Harris and he’s a great corner. However, McDonald runs about 47 percent of his routes from the slot. That means that a Broncos corner is going to have to help on McDonald and none of them have a snap percentage over 10 percent from the slot. So a player is going to have to move to a position that he isn’t used to and try to guard McDonald. Of the Broncos corners, Bradley Roby has the highest percentage after Harris.
AS we can see, Roby hasn’t had the best season so far. The Steelers offense has had some rough spots on the road but Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been near as bad away from Heinz Field this season as in recent years. Even last week when he was a disaster for most of the game, the fantasy production was there at the end(and a Steelers win, just sayin’). Denver has allowed the seventh most yards to tight ends and five touchdowns already, making McDonald a prime candidate to spend a little less at tight end.
Good Luck week 12