DFS Matchup Metrics: Week 10
Welcome into the Week 10 edition of the DFS Matchup Metrics series, designed to use the data at The Quant Edge to point us towards potential values! It was a bit of a tough week but there really was only one total disaster. D.J. Moore only saw two targets and a rushing attempt but he was popular enough in cash games it didn’t crush you. Danny Amendola and Sammy Watkins were both quiet but at least had a floor. Hayden Hurst was a dart throw and even last week, I didn’t really like a lot of low-priced tight ends. Let’s get busy and try to find those gems for this week!
Valdes-Scantling, also known as “MVS” has the potential to be pretty popular this week. In two of his last four games, he’s exceeded 100 yards and the other two saw him find the end zone. The rookie has emerged as a very viable option every single week and also now has his role cemented with the season-ending injury to Geronimo Allison. You probably don’t need much convincing to want to play the second receiver with Aaron Rodgers but just in case you do, here’s what Valdes-Scantling will see from the slot the most.
With Dolphins corner Xavien Howard sporting a mark of giving up just an 88.2 passer rating and being tasked with containing Davante Adams, MVS should be able to turn his average of seven targets a game for the past four weeks into fantasy production. His low score in his new role has been 12.5 on DK and he’s a great way to afford some of the pricey running backs.
Humphries is very interesting this week because he represents a direct price pivot off of the slot receiver on the other team in this game, Maurice Harris. I’ve been dismissive of Humphries basically the entire season, bemoaning his involvement biting into the opportunity for Chris Godwin. Regardless of how you feel about that, the bottom line is Humphries now leads Godwin in total targets this season. After a monster game last week, the slot receiver for the Bucs could do it again this week.
Now if you look at the overall numbers, Moreau looks like a bad matchup. However, take a closer look. Humphries runs a lot of out routes, flats and slants. Moreau has allowed 15 receptions on 20 targets among those route types. With the way Tampa throws the ball and the mismatch among the routes that Humphries favors, he can certainly pay off his modest price in this game. It’s not like quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has met a throw he won’t try yet so Humphries is a solid play in GPP formats.
He’s not quite at the bargain price I had been hoping for but I can’t pass up Larry Fitzgerald in this spot. He finally had one of his best games of the season the week before the bye, going 8/102/1 on 12 targets. It marked his highest target count on the season and it’s amazing what happens when you throw the ball to one of the better receivers to ever play. Arizona has a pretty slim chance of walking into Arrowhead and upsetting the Chiefs but that’s just fine. We want Josh Rosen to throw the ball 40+ times because that’s going to give Fitzgerald plenty of opportunity.
I’m going to be pretty happy if I can get Fitzgerald up against a slot corner that is giving up a passer rating over 100. It’s even better if the Cardinals are in a negative game script. I understand he’s a little pricey for a true “value” play but he’s going to be worth every penny if these metrics hold up. Fitzgerald is fresh off a bye, had more time to work in the new offense of Byron Leftwich and will find his way into my lineups this week.
I know it might seem like I’m continually picking on the Browns defense but they’ve been on the field for the most snaps in the NFL and they’re starting to wear thin. Tight ends are getting to them, whether it’s because they blitz so much or they just don’t cover them very well. They’re giving up the eighth most points to the position and Hooper finds himself in a good spot and under $4,000. I will point out that if Jordan Reed doesn’t play for the Washington Redskins, Vernon Davis will be one of the most highly owned players on this slate and I will be a part of that. If Reed is in, I may have plenty of Hooper.
Hooper eats zone coverage for lunch and T.J. Carrie has been in zone coverage over 42 percent of the time. It’s not the best facet of his game and it just so happens that Hooper is tied for second in the Atlanta offense for targets. The bad news is it’s only 44 targets through eight games, so that’s nothing special. However, Julio Jones is going to get all the attention and Hooper can slide into the zones vacated by the blitz and have a very nice day.
Thanks for reading!