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DFS GPP Breakdown: Championship Round

Jauan Jennings

DFS GPP Breakdown: Championship Round

Hey all and welcome to Championship Weekend! Last week was a break even kind of week. I played a lot of Baker, some Goff, a little Allen, and even littler Lamar. CMC was in about 70% of my lineups. We are rapidly coming to the end of DFS football and this is obviously the last multi game slate of the season.

Ownership numbers are going to be quite high on some players. For semantic purposes, “chalk” will indicate players who may come in over 40% owned. “Mid” will be something like 20 – 40%. “Pivots” are under 20%, and “Prayers” are unowned players who may luck into a random TD.

This is the last kick at the can for a big payday, so let’s get into it!

 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Ravens  -4

O/U 44.5

There is a good chance of rain during this game. Wind shouldn’t be an issue as it should stay under 15 mph.

The Chiefs are fairly banged up but most players have at least got in some limited practices. The concerning ones are G Joe Thuney and Isiah Pacheco; both have been DNPs through Wednesday and Thursday practices.

The Ravens are pretty healthy. CB Rock Ya-Sin went from a limited participant on Wednesday to a non participant on Thursday. Mark Andrews has gone full this week, but Harbaugh has been non committal about whether or not he will play.

Considering that the run is a bigger weakness for Kansas City, I expect a run heavy approach from Baltimore. They ran the rock 42 times against the Texans, and Houston had, supposedly, a better run defense than the Chiefs. Figuring out which RB, or if it will be another Lamar running day will be the challenge. The good news is Dal Cook won’t be much of a factor as last week he got most of his run in garbage time and still couldn’t top 3 yards per carry.

CB L’Jarius Sneed had an opposing team’s WR1 on lock down yet again last week as Stefon Diggs mustered only 3 catches for 21 yards. That could mean tough sledding for Zay Flowers in this matchup. Since Flowers should get the Sneed treatment, OBJ, Bateman, Likely and possibly Andrews will see marginally better matchups. Should the game script go something opposite of what I think it will, the Ravens getting up early and chewing the clock with the run game, then OBJ is interesting to me as a deep threat in a scenario where Baltimore is playing from behind.

Rashee Rice remains KC’s top WR despite some low production against Buffalo last Sunday. While the Raven defense may be intimidating, the $6500 price tag for Rice should be one that people can get to with these 2 games being overall thin at the position. Other WR1s like Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 100 yard receiving days against Baltimore.

I would expect Kelce to have involvement here again, but a repeat of his 2 TD performance is unlikely.

Isiah Pacheco’s absence from practice is troubling, but his featured role in the KC backfield should give him some volume that other RBs on this slate don’t have. Baltimore did well against the Houston ground game last week, but prior to that teams were running on the Ravens and finding success.

 

  • Chalk: Lamar Jackson, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco
  • Mid: Patrick Mahomes, Ravens DST, Chiefs DST, Zay Flowers, Travis Kelce, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely
  • Pivots: OBJ, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, Nelson Agholor
  • Prayer: Dal Cook, any other Chief receiver, CEH (becomes less of a prayer if Pacheco misses)

 

DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

49ers  -8

O/U 51.5

There could be some rain in this game as well, but it’s looking like it will be a nice day in the Bay area on Sunday with temps in the high 60s to low 70s. Wind won’t be an issue. Generally speaking, much of the ownership should gravitate towards this environment as there are likely more overall fantasy points to be had in this matchup.

Detroit has some injury issues to address. C Frank Ragnow has not been practicing, which his a huge loss against the 49er pass rush. LG Jonah Jackson is doubtful as well. Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond continue to deal with their lingering issues, though I expect LaPorta to play and Raymond to miss.

San Francisco is looking quite healthy. Their lone real concern is whether or not Deebo Samuel will play. I think he will, but hopefully he’s not just a decoy.

The 49ers often use an additional safety in the box to help the run defense, and I definitely expect them to continue to do so against the tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Their pass rush is quite good, and should they have success, Jared Goff might have to get the ball out in a hurry. The slot WR, typically Amon-Ra St. Brown, will likely receive a healthy amount of targets, especially if Detroit finds initial success there. The matchup against slot CB is Deommodore Lenoir should be favorable for the Lions. The 49ers are also zone heavy in coverage, and the Sun God has been one of the best performers against zone this year.

CBs Charvarius Ward and Ambry Thomas have been yielding production on the outside as well. Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams received barely an increase in price. They’ll both be popular salary-saving options.

It is no secret that the Lions secondary is not good, so the 49er receiving options should be popular. If Deebo were to miss or be a decoy, more targets could be in store for the likes of Aiyuk, Kittle, and Jennings. Brandon Aiyuk has really good numbers against man-to-man coverage. He’ll see a good amount of CBs Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor who are ranked quite low by Pro Football Focus.

CMC continues to be CMC. The Lions run defense is one of the best in the league, but so was Tampa’s and McCaffrey still put up 31.8 DK points. His involvement and talent are just too good to ignore. However, at possibly over 50% ownership, fading CMC is an interesting maneuver should you think the Lions hinder him or somehow keep him out of the end zone. Heck, this could be the week where Kyle Juszczyk gets the short yardage TD.

 

  • Chalk: CMC, George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Amon-Ra, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams, Lions DST
  • Mid: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Deebo Samuel
  • Pivots: Jauan Jennings, 49ers DST
  • Prayer: Craig Reynolds, Ronnie Bell, Elijah Mitchell, Kyle Juszczyk (you’re hoping for one receiving TD or a 1 yard FB plunge as that would likely be the extent of his fantasy usage), or do the whole rosary and play Sam Darnold with the hope that Purdy exits the game early. That scenario already happened in the last NFC championship game though.

 

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